does anyone have the katrina advisory that talked about human suffering unheard of in this day and age, livestock being killed etc. I remember reading that one and getting chills.
docjoe
NHC quotes of 2005
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it's up there......milankovitch.....
wxmann 91 wrote:FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.
...
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NOTHING WILL
BE LEFT OF FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...IN 2-3 DAYS.
AFTER EXTRACURRICULAR TRANSITION...THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH OR BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND.
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The really gory Katrina report was issued by the NWC-Slidell local office, not the NHC proper, if I'm remembering correctly.
You could do a whole other thread on local weather office reports. The one that a Texas office did last Halloween that was a take off on Poe's 'The Raven' was a total classic.
You could do a whole other thread on local weather office reports. The one that a Texas office did last Halloween that was a take off on Poe's 'The Raven' was a total classic.
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Jim Cantore
docjoe wrote:does anyone have the katrina advisory that talked about human suffering unheard of in this day and age, livestock being killed etc. I remember reading that one and getting chills.
docjoe
000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!
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wxmann_91
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yzerfan wrote:The really gory Katrina report was issued by the NWC-Slidell local office, not the NHC proper, if I'm remembering correctly.
You could do a whole other thread on local weather office reports. The one that a Texas office did last Halloween that was a take off on Poe's 'The Raven' was a total classic.
This thread was buried early but I hope it can be revived:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... hlight=afd
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stormie_skies
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Wow.... reading over this thread .... the 2005 season really was a trip by anyone's definition .... if only so many people didn't have to suffer as a result. 
That quote about 2005 having "little interest in climatology" was prescient to say the least. To think our heads were spinning, even then! I'll never forget that warning put out by the Slidell office...so surreal and sickening.
And Epsilon - ROFL!
Funny....I mentioned to a neighbor that hurricane season was about to start again .... she asked me, "Are they making hurricane seasons longer every year or something?" I told her that we humans aren't - at least not yet - but God seems to have different plans entirely.....
That quote about 2005 having "little interest in climatology" was prescient to say the least. To think our heads were spinning, even then! I'll never forget that warning put out by the Slidell office...so surreal and sickening.
And Epsilon - ROFL!
Funny....I mentioned to a neighbor that hurricane season was about to start again .... she asked me, "Are they making hurricane seasons longer every year or something?" I told her that we humans aren't - at least not yet - but God seems to have different plans entirely.....
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HurricaneHunter914
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Jim Cantore
I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA
SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO
THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA
RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA
SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO
THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA
RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.
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MiamiensisWx
From Emily:
IT IS PERHAPS
OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD ONLY A SO-SO YEAR
LAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL
SO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN
LAST YEAR...IS STRUGGLING A BIT.
So which model overall ended up doing the best at the end of the season?
More Emily:
AS NOTED ABOVE...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG...THE SHEAR IS
LOW...AND THE WATER IS WARM. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
MAKE A MAJOR HURRICANE OUT OF EMILY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STRENGTHENING TREND WILL
LIKELY RESUME WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL
MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.
WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD
BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.
IT IS PERHAPS
OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD ONLY A SO-SO YEAR
LAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL
SO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN
LAST YEAR...IS STRUGGLING A BIT.
So which model overall ended up doing the best at the end of the season?
More Emily:
AS NOTED ABOVE...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG...THE SHEAR IS
LOW...AND THE WATER IS WARM. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
MAKE A MAJOR HURRICANE OUT OF EMILY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STRENGTHENING TREND WILL
LIKELY RESUME WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL
MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.
WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD
BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.
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yzerfan wrote:From Emily:
IT IS PERHAPS
OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD ONLY A SO-SO YEAR
LAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL
SO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN
LAST YEAR...IS STRUGGLING A BIT.
So which model overall ended up doing the best at the end of the season?
Depends how you rate things but the GFDL was best at 48 hours. There is more at: http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc06/linking_file_ihc06.htm
If you look at James Franklin's verification presentation there is a host of info
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CHRISTY
EPSILON WEAKENING RAPIDLY... THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... ... IT IS ABOUT TIME...
CONVECTION HAS VANISHED AND EPSILON IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION. I HOPE THIS IS THE END OF THE LONG LASTING 2005 HURRICANE SEASON.
CONVECTION HAS VANISHED AND EPSILON IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION. I HOPE THIS IS THE END OF THE LONG LASTING 2005 HURRICANE SEASON.
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Oh my. Good work and an amazing thread. My memory for dates and times is horrible, but I remember reading most of those advisories and what it felt like to read them, sometimes laughing, sometimes worried, sometimes horrified. The human face on science was always appreciated, no matter what.
To smiling more this year
To smiling more this year
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Jim Cantore
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC
THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF
KATRINA TO CATEGORY FIVE
KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO BE A DEVASTING CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE AT
LANDFALL.
the most common phrase in 2005
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF
KATRINA TO CATEGORY FIVE
KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO BE A DEVASTING CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE AT
LANDFALL.
the most common phrase in 2005
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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HurricaneHunter914
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Jim Cantore
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