Africa a bit busy.......

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

Africa a bit busy.......

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:02 pm

but nothing to watch this early, of course. Still, moisture is starting to make itself known in the far east tropics. Dry as a bone in the Caribbean and GOM. Wonder when that will break.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
benny
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:09 am
Location: Miami

#2 Postby benny » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:07 pm

ooh that's nice. anytime the rain gets into western mali this time of year is good. plus if it were sneak in senegal that's definitely earlier than average. despite gray's forecasts not working out.. more active than usual african monsoon has to be considered a good thing ;)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146215
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:12 pm

East Atlantic Water Vapor

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Bone dry in the Eastern Atlantic right now with strong subsidence as sinking air caused by a strong anticyclone ridge dominates.Also the ITCZ is low in latitud but expect that it will creep northward in the next few weeks as summer draws closer.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#4 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:41 pm

Cycloneye, do you (or anyone) know what the east atlantic conditions were at this time last April 17? Did we have a dry run-up to the busy 'cane season?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1314
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

#5 Postby terstorm1012 » Mon Apr 17, 2006 7:58 pm

If I recall there was a nasty drought in Mali and Niger last year with near famine conditions across those nations.

I had a theory that this drought suppressed the Cape Verde season by pushing far more SAL out into the Atlantic, contributing to our homegrown problems of last season.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#6 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Apr 17, 2006 8:10 pm

Thanks for the info Terstorm.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1314
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

#7 Postby terstorm1012 » Tue Apr 18, 2006 10:02 am

dixiebreeze wrote:Thanks for the info Terstorm.


you're very welcome.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

#8 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Apr 18, 2006 10:50 am

terstorm1012 wrote:If I recall there was a nasty drought in Mali and Niger last year with near famine conditions across those nations.

I had a theory that this drought suppressed the Cape Verde season by pushing far more SAL out into the Atlantic, contributing to our homegrown problems of last season.


Are they having the same kind of drought this year?
0 likes   
Top
meteorologyman
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 541
Joined: Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:48 pm
Location: Florida, Kissimmee/St.CLoud

#9 Postby meteorologyman » Tue Apr 18, 2006 2:59 pm

there is a storm coming off of Africa

watch it how it just exploded, however i don't expect much from it

http://www.weather.com/maps/oceans.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NONAME
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 373
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:15 am
Location: Where the Wind Blows

#10 Postby NONAME » Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:18 pm

I dont expect anything from it at all. There Many storm like that that come off africa year round but the convection usally disapear by the next day wait till hurricane season then the will be just a little expectation but now no chance in the world ITCZ to low STT to low and Wind shear to high. Its Definetly still the offseason.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
benny
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:09 am
Location: Miami

#11 Postby benny » Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:50 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Cycloneye, do you (or anyone) know what the east atlantic conditions were at this time last April 17? Did we have a dry run-up to the busy 'cane season?


Actually Africa was either neutral or wet in the early season last year. See:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... om_mam.gif

Although the extreme SW portion of that area was dry.. the rest was near average or wetter than normal
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#12 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Apr 18, 2006 7:48 pm

The dry air will probably leave by the time H-Season comes around if Dr. Gray's forecast is to be true.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6372
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#13 Postby boca » Tue Apr 18, 2006 9:43 pm

It sure looks quite active in Africa considering its only April. If the water temps were 80 degrees we'd be in trouble, oh I forgot low wind shear.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, Tak5, wileytheartist and 71 guests