Africa a bit busy.......

#1 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:02 pm

but nothing to watch this early, of course. Still, moisture is starting to make itself known in the far east tropics. Dry as a bone in the Caribbean and GOM. Wonder when that will break.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

benny · #2 Postby **benny** » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:07 pm

ooh that's nice. anytime the rain gets into western mali this time of year is good. plus if it were sneak in senegal that's definitely earlier than average. despite gray's forecasts not working out.. more active than usual african monsoon has to be considered a good thing

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:12 pm

East Atlantic Water Vapor

:uarrow:

Bone dry in the Eastern Atlantic right now with strong subsidence as sinking air caused by a strong anticyclone ridge dominates.Also the ITCZ is low in latitud but expect that it will creep northward in the next few weeks as summer draws closer.

#4 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:41 pm

Cycloneye, do you (or anyone) know what the east atlantic conditions were at this time last April 17? Did we have a dry run-up to the busy 'cane season?

#5 Postby **terstorm1012** » Mon Apr 17, 2006 7:58 pm

If I recall there was a nasty drought in Mali and Niger last year with near famine conditions across those nations.

I had a theory that this drought suppressed the Cape Verde season by pushing far more SAL out into the Atlantic, contributing to our homegrown problems of last season.

#6 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Apr 17, 2006 8:10 pm

Thanks for the info Terstorm.

#7 Postby **terstorm1012** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 10:02 am

dixiebreeze wrote:Thanks for the info Terstorm.

you're very welcome.

#8 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 10:50 am

terstorm1012 wrote:If I recall there was a nasty drought in Mali and Niger last year with near famine conditions across those nations.

I had a theory that this drought suppressed the Cape Verde season by pushing far more SAL out into the Atlantic, contributing to our homegrown problems of last season.

Are they having the same kind of drought this year?

meteorologyman · #9 Postby **meteorologyman** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 2:59 pm

there is a storm coming off of Africa

watch it how it just exploded, however i don't expect much from it

http://www.weather.com/maps/oceans.html

NONAME · #10 Postby **NONAME** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:18 pm

I dont expect anything from it at all. There Many storm like that that come off africa year round but the convection usally disapear by the next day wait till hurricane season then the will be just a little expectation but now no chance in the world ITCZ to low STT to low and Wind shear to high. Its Definetly still the offseason.

benny · #11 Postby **benny** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:50 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Cycloneye, do you (or anyone) know what the east atlantic conditions were at this time last April 17? Did we have a dry run-up to the busy 'cane season?

Actually Africa was either neutral or wet in the early season last year. See:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... om_mam.gif

Although the extreme SW portion of that area was dry.. the rest was near average or wetter than normal

HurricaneHunter914 · #12 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 7:48 pm

The dry air will probably leave by the time H-Season comes around if Dr. Gray's forecast is to be true.

boca · #13 Postby **boca** » Tue Apr 18, 2006 9:43 pm

It sure looks quite active in Africa considering its only April. If the water temps were 80 degrees we'd be in trouble, oh I forgot low wind shear.

Africa a bit busy.......

Africa a bit busy.......

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