Average Winter Snow Depth in Siberia has Doubled

[kenl01]

6 Apr 06 - A team from the University of Alaska, which included two Russian scientists, analyzed records of precipitation, snow depth and runoff in the catchment area of the Lena River, an area of more than a million square kilometers east east of the Ural mountains in Siberia. They found that the average winter snow depth there has doubled to 44 cm from 22 cm in 1940.

The Lena River, one of Siberia's largest rivers, "is dumping about 10% more fresh water into the Arctic today than it was some 60 years ago, thanks to the complex effects of increased snowfall and changing
weather.

The way the headline is written, it leads one to assume that that old
dreadful bugaboo, "global warming" is rearing its ugly head yet again. Of course that's not the case, as anybody with common sense knows. Increased snowfall is a product of cold temperatures, and more fresh water dumping into the arctic has to do with more snow melting in late spring and early summer because of MORE snow accumulation in fall and winter. No surprise to me at all.

http://www.nature.com/news/2006/060403/ ... 403-9.html

[x-y-no]

The way the headline is written, it leads one to assume that that old
dreadful bugaboo, "global warming" is rearing its ugly head yet again.

That's because it is.

Of course that's not the case, as anybody with common sense knows. Increased snowfall is a product of cold temperatures ...

Ummm .. no. Greater precipitation is a product of more moisture in the atmosphere, which is a predicted consequence of global warming.

... and more fresh water dumping into the arctic has to do with more snow melting in late spring and early summer because of MORE snow accumulation in fall and winter. No surprise to me at all.

Yes, this part is right. And the interesting (and still open) question is whether this additional freshening of the Arctic Ocean is significant enough to affect the thermohaline circulation.

[kenl01]

The way the headline is written, it leads one to assume that that old
dreadful bugaboo, "global warming" is rearing its ugly head yet again.

That's because it is.

Of course that's not the case, as anybody with common sense knows. Increased snowfall is a product of cold temperatures ...

Ummm .. no. Greater precipitation is a product of more moisture in the atmosphere, which is a predicted consequence of global warming.

... and more fresh water dumping into the arctic has to do with more snow melting in late spring and early summer because of MORE snow accumulation in fall and winter. No surprise to me at all.

Yes, this part is right. And the interesting (and still open) question is whether this additional freshening of the Arctic Ocean is significant enough to affect the thermohaline circulation.

Wrong XY - NO !

Again you don' have the slightest idea what's going on here. I won't even take the time to argue with someone like you because it really is a waste of time. As you can see clearly, snowfall is increasing, NOT decreasing dude. It's also getting colder, according to the latest from a headline I put on earlier about 1998-2005 plus the fact that from 1979-1998, temps have declined by approx -.14 C per decade, according to scientist Jaworowski, who has analyzed this stuff for over 50 years. I'm certain he knows far more than you do. Snowfall is not only increasing in Siberia, but also in NYC like crazy in recent years, and also snow depth in Minnesota has increased by over 14" since the late 1800's. Snow is a product of COLD temperatures, plain and simple.

On the global scale, the most objective measurements of the temperature in the lower troposphere, conducted since 1979 by American satellites (with no interference from “heat islands”), indicated up to 1998 not a climate warming, but rather a modest cooling (–0.14°C per decade—see Figure 8). http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/A ... arming.pdf

Also see:

Snowfall in California mountains smashes previous records - At the end of last week, California ’s Mammoth ski resort announced that an astounding 632 inches (16 meters) of snow had fallen since October. The previous record was set in 1992/93 when the resort received 617 inches of snow from October to early spring. Average snowfall in a typical season is around 400 inches, making this years snowfall some 200 inches more than usual.

Scotland has also seen heavy snowfall in the mountains in the last several weeks. "I believe we are having one of the best seasons for spring snow for at least 10 years if not 50,” said the manager at the Glencoe Ski Centre.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/news ... news.shtml


Plus the latest article (posted earlier) shows an overall cooling since 1998 through 2005 as well. With MORE snow accumulating in Siberia these days and many other locations, the cooling trend has strong merit.

Ken


PS: I will not reply to any other nonsense posts made to me again on this issue, including XY - NO................

Have a nice day

[x-y-no]

Wrong XY - NO !

Again you don' have the slightest idea what's going on here. I won't even take the time to argue with someone like you because it really is a waste of time.

I'll refrain from the natural reciprocal ad hominem attack, even though you leave yourself wide open for it.

As you can see clearly, snowfall is increasing, NOT decreasing dude.

I never claimed otherwise. What I said is that the increase is due to more moisture in the atmosphere in that region, not colder temperatures. The winter temperature in Siberia is so far below freezing that essentially all moisture precipitates out. A few degrees lower isn't going to result in a doubling of precipitation.

It's also getting colder, according to the latest from a headline I put on earlier about 1998-2005 plus the fact that from 1979-1998, temps have declined by approx -.14 C per decade, according to scientist Jaworowski, who has analyzed this stuff for over 50 years.

I'm certain he knows far more than you do.

More ad-hom. I don't doubt he knows more than I do about Siberia. But tell me, has he claimed that the observed regional decline in temperature is the cause of the doubling in wintertime precipitation?

Snowfall is not only increasing in Siberia, but also in NYC like crazy in recent years, and also snow depth in Minnesota has increased by over 14" since the late 1800's. Snow is a product of COLD temperatures, plain and simple.

Interesting claim. Tell me, if snow is purely a result of cold temperatures, why do extremely cold locations like Antarctica and Siberia have so much less snow than relatively warm places like the mountains of California?

(answer - because California has much more humidity)

On the global scale, the most objective measurements of the temperature in the lower troposphere, conducted since 1979 by American satellites (with no interference from “heat islands”), indicated up to 1998 not a climate warming, but rather a modest cooling (–0.14°C per decade—see Figure 8). http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/A ... arming.pdf

This is just plain false - and even a cursory visual evaluation of that figure makes it clear there's no cooling trend but rather a warming trend. I note they don't put any smoothed averag in that figure, but merely make the unsupported claim in text.

There's a pretty good discussion in Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_ ... ure_record

(yes ... I know ... it's wiki. I'm sure you'll dismiss it out of hand. But for others reading this thread, follow the links to the sources - this particular article is well documented)

Also see:

Snowfall in California mountains smashes previous records - At the end of last week, California ’s Mammoth ski resort announced that an astounding 632 inches (16 meters) of snow had fallen since October. The previous record was set in 1992/93 when the resort received 617 inches of snow from October to early spring. Average snowfall in a typical season is around 400 inches, making this years snowfall some 200 inches more than usual.

I'm surprised you would cite this, given your effort to support the absurd claim that snowfall is solely related to temperature. Are you aware that California is much warmer than Siberia? Did you notice that the snowfall is dramatically higher in California than in Siberia?

Are you perhaps willing now to agree that I was right?

Scotland has also seen heavy snowfall in the mountains in the last several weeks. "I believe we are having one of the best seasons for spring snow for at least 10 years if not 50,” said the manager at the Glencoe Ski Centre.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/news ... news.shtml

Yeah, so? What does this prove?

Plus the latest article (posted earlier) shows an overall cooling since 1998 through 2005 as well.

And I pointed out that the only way you get that result is by throwing out all data except for 1998 and 2005. And as I pointed out, 1998 was the tail end of a huge el Nino. What's truly remarkable is that a non-el Nino year like 2005 was just about as warm. When we get another el Nino (I'm betting on next year) we're going to see the world temperature record smashed by probably half a degree celsius.

With MORE snow accumulating in Siberia these days and many other locations, the cooling trend has strong merit.

Ken

Again, I didn't deny that there may have been a slight cooling trend in the Siberian region, I really haven't looked into that question. What I disagreed with is the claim that that slight cooling trend is the cause of the observed doubling in precipitation since the 40's. Instead, I assert that this is a result of more moisture in the atmosphere, and that this is consistent with the predictions of climate models.

PS: I will not reply to any other nonsense posts made to me again on this issue, including XY - NO................

Have a nice day

And the ad-homimems go on ...

Jan

[kenl01]

Mr XY No ! Here is one just for you, written by Alan Caruba:

http://www.anxietycenter.com/climate/main.htm


Here are some of the most relevant points he made:

"Meanwhile, back on Earth, on March 12 a late season storm dropped 8 inches of snow on northern Great Britain and, a week earlier, there were blizzards in Western Europe that killed 17 people. Some regions of Germany, France, Switzerland, and Italy saw the heaviest March snowfall in nearly three decades. In February it had snowed for 50 straight hours in Sichuan, China, and a record freeze occurred in Russia that destroyed an estimated 30% of its winter crops. "This is the worst winter in 28 years," said Alexei Gordeyev, the Agricultural Minister. Are we looking at a trend? Nobody really knows."

"While the editors of Science magazine were pumping up the hype about global warming, the Earth was providing a panorama of very cold events whose intensity appears to be growing. And why not? The Earth is currently at the tail end of a 12,000 interglacial period. In other words, if the cycle holds true, we are due for another Ice Age."

Yes, Mr XY No, you heard that right !

The warming that has occurred, 0.8 degree Celsius, "virtually all occurred before 1940," notes Dr. Avery, "and thus before much industrial development. Ice cores from the Fremont Glacier in Wyoming "show it went from Little Ice Age cold to Modern Warming warm in the ten years between 1845 and 1855. Naturally."

"That’s the operative word. "Naturally." It has to due with massive climate forces that were and will remain beyond any "control" by mankind. Is it just my imagination or is global warming getting—dare I say it—colder these days ?"

Plus with two consecutive snowstorms/blizzards occurring in Africa the last two winters reaching all the way to the Sahara desert, it supports my contention:

Snow Cuts off Villages in Algeria –– 26 Feb 06 - Heavy snow has cut off villages and clogged key arteries leading away from the Algerian capital Algiers for several days, national police said on Sunday. Djelfa, which had 70cm, was "totally paralysed", the Algerian Press Agency reported.

At least 60cm of snow blanketed villages near Djelfa and Medea, respectively 270km and 80km south of Algiers. Only donkeys and mules could ply the roads around the villages. Snow is unusual in the north African country, but last winter saw snowfalls of more than two meters in several parts of the north-east. This is second year for record breaking snow and cold in Algeria.
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_i...0990843347B242


Last years snow report in in the desert of Africa:

Snow over Northern Africa -Jan.26,2005
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Nat...3?img_id=12699
Winter weather descended on Northern Africa on January 26 and 27, 2005, leaving parts of Algeria and Morroco white with snow. This rare storm—the worst in over 50 years—brought chaos to the roadways of the normally arid region. As the clouds began to move away on January 28, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured these images of the snow. The top image shows the region in true color, as the human eye would see it. In this image, light clouds blend with the snow-covered ground, making it difficult to tell how much snow is present. The lower image shows the same scene in both visible and short wave infrared light. The infrared bands separate cloud and ice, with cloud appearing peach and orange, and ice and snow appearing dark red. Vegetation is a dark green, while the bare desert is turquoise. In this image, the snow extends from the Mediterranean Coast in the north to the northern reaches of the Sahara Desert in the south. !!!!!!!!

NASA images courtesy Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC. Both the true and false color images are available in additional resolutions.
__________________


X + Y + NO = NO common sense

Thank You and have a nice day

[x-y-no]

Mr XY No ! Here is one just for you, written by Alan Caruba:

http://www.anxietycenter.com/climate/main.htm

He wrote this just for me? Well, I should appreciate the effort, I suppose, but since he doesn't say anything substantive that I haven't already adressed in previous exchanges, it's rather a waste.

Here are some of the most relevant points he made:

"Meanwhile, back on Earth, on March 12 a late season storm dropped 8 inches of snow on northern Great Britain and, a week earlier, there were blizzards in Western Europe that killed 17 people. Some regions of Germany, France, Switzerland, and Italy saw the heaviest March snowfall in nearly three decades. In February it had snowed for 50 straight hours in Sichuan, China, and a record freeze occurred in Russia that destroyed an estimated 30% of its winter crops. "This is the worst winter in 28 years," said Alexei Gordeyev, the Agricultural Minister. Are we looking at a trend? Nobody really knows."

And the point is? Absolutely none of this is inconsistant with AGW, so it's a straw-man argument to offer this as any kind of refutation.

"While the editors of Science magazine were pumping up the hype about global warming, the Earth was providing a panorama of very cold events whose intensity appears to be growing. And why not? The Earth is currently at the tail end of a 12,000 interglacial period. In other words, if the cycle holds true, we are due for another Ice Age."

We'll surely return to ice age conditions eventually, but there's absolutely no reason to think that would be anytime in the next few thousand years. While the last couple of interglacials were in the neighborhood of 12,000 years, prior ones were regularly longer - as much as 40,000 years IIRC.

Yes, Mr XY No, you heard that right !

Whoop-de-doo. Some random pundit has declared it, thus it must be true.

The warming that has occurred, 0.8 degree Celsius, "virtually all occurred before 1940," notes Dr. Avery, "and thus before much industrial development. Ice cores from the Fremont Glacier in Wyoming "show it went from Little Ice Age cold to Modern Warming warm in the ten years between 1845 and 1855. Naturally."

This claim is true only if "virtually all" means "nearly half".

see: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig2-1.htm

"That’s the operative word. "Naturally." It has to due with massive climate forces that were and will remain beyond any "control" by mankind. Is it just my imagination or is global warming getting—dare I say it—colder these days ?"

You may have hit on the truth here - it's just your imagination.

Plus with two consecutive snowstorms/blizzards occurring in Africa the last two winters reaching all the way to the Sahara desert, it supports my contention:

Snow Cuts off Villages in Algeria –– 26 Feb 06 - Heavy snow has cut off villages and clogged key arteries leading away from the Algerian capital Algiers for several days, national police said on Sunday. Djelfa, which had 70cm, was "totally paralysed", the Algerian Press Agency reported.

At least 60cm of snow blanketed villages near Djelfa and Medea, respectively 270km and 80km south of Algiers. Only donkeys and mules could ply the roads around the villages. Snow is unusual in the north African country, but last winter saw snowfalls of more than two meters in several parts of the north-east. This is second year for record breaking snow and cold in Algeria.
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_i...0990843347B242


Last years snow report in in the desert of Africa:

Snow over Northern Africa -Jan.26,2005
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Nat...3?img_id=12699
Winter weather descended on Northern Africa on January 26 and 27, 2005, leaving parts of Algeria and Morroco white with snow. This rare storm—the worst in over 50 years—brought chaos to the roadways of the normally arid region. As the clouds began to move away on January 28, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured these images of the snow. The top image shows the region in true color, as the human eye would see it. In this image, light clouds blend with the snow-covered ground, making it difficult to tell how much snow is present. The lower image shows the same scene in both visible and short wave infrared light. The infrared bands separate cloud and ice, with cloud appearing peach and orange, and ice and snow appearing dark red. Vegetation is a dark green, while the bare desert is turquoise. In this image, the snow extends from the Mediterranean Coast in the north to the northern reaches of the Sahara Desert in the south. !!!!!!!!

I'm sorry, but anomalous snow events don't support your contention at all. This is what I'm trying to get through to you. Noone outside of determined AGW sceptics has suggested that such extreme weather events would not occur in a warming world - there's absolutely no reason to think they wouldn't.

X + Y + NO = NO common sense

Thank You and have a nice day

Once again, all you have to offer is an ad-hominem attack.

Jan

[Trugunzn]

Greater Precipitation is from Ocean warming. Under water volcanic activity has been at its highest ever and its warming the oceans, the warmer the ocean, the more evaporation.

[Aquawind]

kenl01 stop with the rude and disrespectful comments they are not wanted here and will not be tolerated!

[x-y-no]

Greater Precipitation is from Ocean warming. Under water volcanic activity has been at its highest ever and its warming the oceans, the warmer the ocean, the more evaporation.

I know of no science to support this claim of increased volcanic activity warming the oceans, and at least some to refute it.

The observed warming of the oceans is a phenomenon of the surface mixed layer, not the abyssal ocean. Furthermore, as far as I'm aware, the distribution of the warm anomalies on the surface do not correlate in any way with the locations of submerged volcanic activity.

If you know of some research to support this hypothesis, I'd appreciate if you'd pass it on.

[Trugunzn]

Greater Precipitation is from Ocean warming. Under water volcanic activity has been at its highest ever and its warming the oceans, the warmer the ocean, the more evaporation.

I know of no science to support this claim of increased volcanic activity warming the oceans, and at least some to refute it.

The observed warming of the oceans is a phenomenon of the surface mixed layer, not the abyssal ocean. Furthermore, as far as I'm aware, the distribution of the warm anomalies on the surface do not correlate in any way with the locations of submerged volcanic activity.

If you know of some research to support this hypothesis, I'd appreciate if you'd pass it on.

Talks aboyt the underwater volcanic activity in the Arctic Ocean far stronger than anyone ever imagined!

http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrations ... index.html

Enormous Hydrothermal "Megaplume"
Found in Indian Ocean

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... plume.html

[P.K.]

Mixing rates of the ocean are so slow though that it is the mixed surface layer that affects temps as Jan says.

There is no evidence that I can see in those articles that this activity is increasing, just that it might be a bit larger than previously anticipated.

[x-y-no]

Talks aboyt the underwater volcanic activity in the Arctic Ocean far stronger than anyone ever imagined!

http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrations ... index.html

Enormous Hydrothermal "Megaplume"
Found in Indian Ocean

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... plume.html

Those are interesting discoveries, but as P.K. pointed out, there's no indication these represent new activity, merely previously unknown activity.

Furthermore, a little back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates it's not terribly significant in the big picture.

The "mega-plume" of the second article is said to be producing 100,000 megawatts. Note that the average insolation at the surface between the tropics of cancer and capricorn is ~250 watts/m^2. So the production of this megaplume is equivalent to the insolation on a 20x20 kilometer square of tropical ocean.

More to the point, the estimated current increase in radiative forcing due to AGW is something between 2 and 3 watts/m^2 (one square kilometer is one million square meters, so that's 2 to 3 megawatts/km^2). taking the lower number and applying that to the Earth's disk (area ~127,000,000 km^2) and one finds that it would take well over 2500 new (not merely previously unknown) megaplumes of this size to cause the equivalent effect.

I'll grant there may be a handful of these things around yet to be discovered. But I severely doubt that over 2500 exist at all, let alone suddenly appeared where they didn't exist before.

[Aslkahuna]

About the snow in the Sierra this year-it should be pointed out that the 632 inch record is for Mammoth ONLY and not range wide. The record snowfall for the Sierra is 887 inches set early in the 20th Century and the heaviest single snowstorm total in the US was set in the Sierra in 1959 and so far, none of these records are in jeopardy. Some of the ski resorts near Donner are around 700 inches for the season but the record for Donner is over 780 inches so seasonal snowfall records all over CA are not being broken though March was the snowiest month of that name in the Sierra.

Steve

[kenl01]

Greater Precipitation is from Ocean warming. Under water volcanic activity has been at its highest ever and its warming the oceans, the warmer the ocean, the more evaporation.

Bingo ! Yes that is a big factor to consider, since overall average precipitation is increasing.

[kenl01]

SIBERIAN JANUARY L0W TEMPERATURE OF -94ºF, IF ACCEPTED AS OFFICIAL, WOULD SET NEW ASIAN AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RECORD

http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1217/

Written March 9, 2001
By Joe D'Aleo
Chief WSI/INTELLICAST Meteorologist

The United States experienced the coldest November and December period on record, and the winter (December through February) was a whole was the 25th coldest in the last 106 years. But as we, and the news media have been reporting, we were not alone. Extreme cold was experienced in parts of China, India, Korea, Japan and Russia this year as well.

Winter temperatures in Siberia were especially extreme at times. In fact, perhaps more so than ever recorded before. The following information was extracted from the February Global Summary published by the NCDC.

The Siberian winter, which climatologically arrives in October and lasts through May, has been unusually severe so far this season. The region has experienced its harshest winter weather in decades. Some areas reportedly had mid-January temperatures as low as -94ºF in the Kemerovo region, some 1800 miles east of Moscow. If those temperatures are accepted as official, this would be a new record low for the continent of Asia (note: also the Northern Hemisphere - the world record was -127ºF in Vostok, Antarctica in 1983). The old Asian and Northern Hemisphere record of -90ºF was set at both Oimekon and Verkhoyansk, in Siberia in 1892 and 1933 respectively.

For more on World Wide Weather Extremes:

http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1171/
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/climate/sev ... remes.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/reports/weather-events.html

No wonder we have more snow in Siberia these days !

[Extremeweatherguy]

SIBERIAN JANUARY L0W TEMPERATURE OF -94ºF, IF ACCEPTED AS OFFICIAL, WOULD SET NEW ASIAN AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RECORD

http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1217/

Written March 9, 2001
By Joe D'Aleo
Chief WSI/INTELLICAST Meteorologist

The United States experienced the coldest November and December period on record, and the winter (December through February) was a whole was the 25th coldest in the last 106 years. But as we, and the news media have been reporting, we were not alone. Extreme cold was experienced in parts of China, India, Korea, Japan and Russia this year as well.

Winter temperatures in Siberia were especially extreme at times. In fact, perhaps more so than ever recorded before. The following information was extracted from the February Global Summary published by the NCDC.

The Siberian winter, which climatologically arrives in October and lasts through May, has been unusually severe so far this season. The region has experienced its harshest winter weather in decades. Some areas reportedly had mid-January temperatures as low as -94ºF in the Kemerovo region, some 1800 miles east of Moscow. If those temperatures are accepted as official, this would be a new record low for the continent of Asia (note: also the Northern Hemisphere - the world record was -127ºF in Vostok, Antarctica in 1983). The old Asian and Northern Hemisphere record of -90ºF was set at both Oimekon and Verkhoyansk, in Siberia in 1892 and 1933 respectively.

For more on World Wide Weather Extremes:

http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1171/
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/climate/sev ... remes.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/reports/weather-events.html

No wonder we have more snow in Siberia these days !

Wow...-94F! That should make anyone question GW. How would it be that the northern Hemisphere sees it's coldest temp. EVER when the world is warming?

[x-y-no]

Wow...-94F! That should make anyone question GW. How would it be that the northern Hemisphere sees it's coldest temp. EVER when the world is warming?

Why? There's nothing about a warming world which excludes the possibility of such local extreme phenomena.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Just out of curiosity, cuz I'm new here (Global Weather), and there are SO many acronyms and other initializations in met circles, does AGW have any connection to the "Anthropogenic" concept of global warming... I am honestly just curious to know if that's what you mean by AGW.

A2K

[x-y-no]

Just out of curiosity, cuz I'm new here (Global Weather), and there are SO many acronyms and other initializations in met circles, does AGW have any connection to the "Anthropogenic" concept of global warming... I am honestly just curious to know if that's what you mean by AGW.

A2K

AGW = Anthropogenic Global Warming.

Jan

[Audrey2Katrina]

AGW = Anthropogenic Global Warming.

Okay, ...thought so, just wanted to be certain.

A2K