La Nina/El Nino/Neutral: Long-range Thoughts For 2006

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bocadad
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#41 Postby bocadad » Fri Apr 14, 2006 8:57 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Folks, I can't reiterate this enough. If this pattern regime begins to exist thru the spring and into the summer months this is gonna be one bear of a hot summer, and a potentially very dry one too. Also, WRT to the aspect of potential tropical cyclone landfalls, the pattern regime may end up keeping a good majority of tropical cyclones at bay this year (as in staying offshore, in which so many areas need a much quieter time in that regards.)

Already just locally in Charleston, SC we've already seen 90º this year, and are heading in that direction starting tomorrow for the next couple of days. This is a pattern nightmare with regards to heat waves and droughts, with waves of ridge riding thunderstorms across the zenith of the ridge, and generally are of the MCS or MCC variety and generally very severe at times.

Unfortunately, for people that are lacking in rainfall such as the Eastern US now a slight drought is now underway, the overall regime may deteriorate in regards to getting sufficient rainfalls before the summer time begins. Bottom line, we need rainfalls across the parched areas, otherwise, dry conditions begat dry conditions and tend to feed upon itself and thusly the ground and surrounding air becomes more readily hotter (drier air heats more quickly than humid air b/c of evaporational processes).

SF


This was in another thread under USA weather and would seem to lend some support to Capeverdewave's idea, assuming Weatherfreak, that Stormsfury meets your high standards.
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jusforsean
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#42 Postby jusforsean » Fri Apr 14, 2006 9:09 pm

thanks for your help
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SouthFloridawx
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#43 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Apr 14, 2006 9:11 pm

Welcome to the forums bocadad!!!
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Weatherfreak000

#44 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Apr 14, 2006 10:33 pm

Well I didn't mean to send rudeness I was just saying I never heard of the guy.


No hard feelings :cheesy:
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#45 Postby cajungal » Sat Apr 15, 2006 6:26 am

I think anybody should let their guard down. Not the Gulf Coast and not the entire eastern seaboard. We don't know for certain what is going to happen for the 2006 hurricane season. We just pray it is not anything like last year. It only takes one. Andrew hit in a very slow year and look what happened. And he was a Cape Verde Storm and he did not recurve. He hit South Florida and went on to hit Louisiana next. Whenever a storm hit from around Miami down to the Keys, Louisiana turns out to be a target next many times. Examples are not limited to Andrew. But, to Betsy and Katrina as well. The Hurricane of 1926 (not the one that hit Miami) but another one, passed through the Florida straits. And then hit Terrebonne Parish head on. My neighbor is now 94 years old and still talks about that hurricane like it was yesterday. She was 14 during the cane of 1926.
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#46 Postby terstorm1012 » Sat Apr 15, 2006 10:05 am

Bocadad, welcome to the boards!

thanks for posting the info...the drought (which IMO is a continuation from last year's) is becoming a concern of mine...if it gets bad the only way to break it would be a hurricane.
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#47 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Apr 15, 2006 10:53 am

Very true but if we need a hurricane to break a drought destruction would come too.
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#48 Postby Steve H. » Sat Apr 15, 2006 10:43 pm

All the talk of Super El Nino and higher than normal SSTs in the Pacific Nino areas in the central and western regions is utter hogwash. We've said the same thing every spring for the last few years. This year will be a season much like last year with systems developing west of 60W and several threats being realized. This will not be a strong Cape Verde season....we can only hope it will be. Then we would at least have less of a threat of landfalling storms :( I, for one, cannot take much more of the overactive patterns. Another hit in my area and I'm putting in for a transfer. Not gonna be a pretty season folks. Cheers!! :roll:
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#49 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Apr 15, 2006 10:52 pm

My thoughts...

Given the drought and current trends, a major ridge (Bermuda High) could set up. But this Bermuda High should be abnormally strong, directing many storms toward the Caribbean and the GOM. IMVAO (In my very amateur opinion), this year looks more like 1988, 1980, 1955, and 1967. Expect at least one major Caribbean traverser (ala Emily, Joan, Allen, Beulah, Ivan, Janet, and others) that makes its final landfall in Mexico. The U.S., hopefully, should have a quieter season than has been seen before. Also the current trends show the La Nina subsiding down significantly, and the AMO has dropped drastically from the record high last year. I see Bermuda, the Caribbean, Deep South Texas, and Mexico as high probablities for a 2006 landfall. East Coast and western Gulf Coast should be about average. Eastern Gulf Coast and Florida should be below average.

EDIT: I should've mentioned that below average FL is only the West Coast. East Coast of FL, IMO, counts as the East Coast.
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