Accu-weather: NE US and Upper TX Coast a Target

[Camille_2_Katrina]

if i'm not mistaken, he said in April of last year that the area
between Houston and Pensacola would be a prime target for
major hurricane hit... WOW... talk about being right on the
money. No one stepped out and made a prediction like that.
Bastardi is also a regular on FOX news, CNN and others. He's
probably the most reveared tropic met out there. Does he ever
come the this site? I would love to meet him! Mr. Bastardi !! Are
you there! Talk to us!

[jasons2k]

Actually, later in the season Joe B. did say he expected the risk for the East Coast/NE to pick-up. So did a lot of other people as well...but Joe B. is always the "miss" that people remember.

[GeneratorPower]

This whole article is, well, . I'm thankful for Max Mayfield and the real experts. I'll take the cone of probability over this forecast anyday.

[JPmia]

if i'm not mistaken, he said in April of last year that the area
between Houston and Pensacola would be a prime target for
major hurricane hit... WOW... talk about being right on the
money. No one stepped out and made a prediction like that.
Bastardi is also a regular on FOX news, CNN and others. He's
probably the most reveared tropic met out there. Does he ever
come the this site? I would love to meet him! Mr. Bastardi !! Are
you there! Talk to us!

LOL. Good post.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I know that nearly all hurricanes that have effected New England have either formed, or passed near (the center usually within 200 miles or less) of Cat Island in the Bahamas. Just thought I would throw that out there.

[gatorcane]

We always see these types of threads and they are always posted by someone in the effected area. In the case of Texas, if I had to bet, I would bet that Florida and the Carolinas would be hit by a major over you guys. The chances of a NE US hit are so small that is not even worth worrying over. Also Accu-weather likes to cause anxiety and that is exactly what they are doing here. The real answer to every thread is

Answer: nobody knows where the target it is => thread closed.

[skysummit]

Heck....if J.B. would say SELA would have a 95% chance of getting hit this season, I would feel relatively safe. That goes to show you how much confidence I have in his so called "forecasts".

[gatorcane]

Heck....if J.B. would say SELA would have a 95% chance of getting hit this season, I would feel relatively safe. That goes to show you how much confidence I have in his so called "forecasts".

[Camille_2_Katrina]

honestly, why so harsh on the guy. he has a job
and he's doing it. doing it well, i might add. Like
my momma used to tell me "if you don't have
anything nice to say... don't say anything". I could
see disagreeing with him... but we don't have to
attack him. It's about respect.

[terstorm1012]

if i'm not mistaken, he said in April of last year that the area
between Houston and Pensacola would be a prime target for
major hurricane hit... WOW... talk about being right on the
money. No one stepped out and made a prediction like that.
Bastardi is also a regular on FOX news, CNN and others. He's
probably the most reveared tropic met out there. Does he ever
come the this site? I would love to meet him! Mr. Bastardi !! Are
you there! Talk to us!

I met JB, about five years ago. He spoke to our AMS club (back when I was a Met major...shoulda stayed one but I digress). He's actually pretty cool. Shorter in person but built like a brick uknowwhat house.

On the tee vee though, he's obnoxious and his organization is obnoxious. But in person he was and probably is cool, and his speech (on teleconnections) was quite good.

[skysummit]

honestly, why so harsh on the guy. he has a job
and he's doing it. doing it well, i might add. Like
my momma used to tell me "if you don't have
anything nice to say... don't say anything". I could
see disagreeing with him... but we don't have to
attack him. It's about respect.

I'm not attacking him as a person....just as a met. His programs are like a bad soap opera or something. I will never support Slaccuweather and what they're trying to do. Give me the NWS, TPC, SPC, and the NHC. They are the BEST....BETTER than anyone. His forecasts are jokes, he thrives on devastation, and one day he'll end up getting people killed.

Every year we get threads like this about those who like JB and those who don't. Honestly, I used to....until I actually understood what he is all about. I don't feel like getting into a JB debate, so I'll just drop my side now.

[Camille_2_Katrina]

honestly, why so harsh on the guy. he has a job
and he's doing it. doing it well, i might add. Like
my momma used to tell me "if you don't have
anything nice to say... don't say anything". I could
see disagreeing with him... but we don't have to
attack him. It's about respect.

I'm not attacking him as a person....just as a met. His programs are like a bad soap opera or something. I will never support Slaccuweather and what they're trying to do. Give me the NWS, TPC, SPC, and the NHC. They are the BEST....BETTER than anyone. His forecasts are jokes, he thrives on devastation, and one day he'll end up getting people killed.

Every year we get threads like this about those who like JB and those who don't. Honestly, I used to....until I actually understood what he is all about. I don't feel like getting into a JB debate, so I'll just drop my side now.

well... that's a mean thing to say. As i stated earlier, he said last
april that we here in the mississippi gulf coast have the best chance
of being hit by a major hurricane (that wasn't a joke to me). No other
weather agency said that. You gotta give the guy credit! 3 very strong
storms hit in his "area of probability" Yikes! the guy is brilliant!


JMHO... we can ALL learn from people like Joe.

[MiamiensisWx]

Joe Bastardi nailed Wilma, too.

[skysummit]

Yup....once in a while you will get a few right.

[jasons2k]

I'm somewhere in the middle with Joe B. Here are my thoughts:

The Pros: The guy tries hard and obviously works like a dog. Tries to think outside the box and challenge conventional methods. Issues real forecasts with actual numbers instead of "probability schemes" for temps, snowfall potential, and landfall potential. Tries to push the envelope of long-range forecasting by targeting specific landfalling regions based on climatology, teleconnections, ESNO/NAO/PDO/AMO, and analogues. He admits this work is in the early stages and is a "work in progress" with much more work and research to be done. I don't think he's the evil man people portray him to be. He's nailed a number of systems when other sources thought he was crazy. Classic examples: Isidore's demise in the Yucatan, Ivan looping and reforming in the GOM.

The Cons: Highly critical of the NWS and NHC at times, but then thanks them for their efforts in the same breath. Often criticized for overhyping devastating impacts. Works for Accuweather which supports the Santorum Bill. Some mets question his methods and usefulness of trying to target landfalling regions well in advance, i.e., as noted in Dr. Gray's report. Some of his work isn't as ground-breaking or as refined as Accuweather claims it to be (maybe blame Accuweather for that?). He tends to not change his forecasts when it's obvious a system is headed elsewhere, which can result in a large verification error. Classic example: Ophelia.

So, in summary, there it is IMO, the good and the bad. Sometimes by taking risks he nails something everyone else misses. In contrast, sometimes he's the only one who misses the boat.

[skysummit]

That was a very good post jschlitz. Thanks for your opinion.

[LSU_Weatherguy]

Joe Bastardi nailed Wilma, too.

I got Wilma right also and i was flipping a coin to decide if it was going to serve left or right

[southerngale]

If you don't like JB or Accuweather, is there some reason you just can't pass on this thread? My apologies to KatDaddy for what has happened to the thread he started. He saw an article by a weather source, whether YOU like the source or not, and posted it to share with others. Ya know...you can just comment on the article itself, instead of resorting to the same old tiring Accuweather bashing. I completely understand that some people don't like them, but we have Accuweather folks who post on here, just trying to make a living. Try to show a little respect.

We always see these types of threads and they are always posted by someone in the effected area. In the case of Texas, if I had to bet, I would bet that Florida and the Carolinas would be hit by a major over you guys. The chances of a NE US hit are so small that is not even worth worrying over. Also Accu-weather likes to cause anxiety and that is exactly what they are doing here. The real answer to every thread is

Answer: nobody knows where the target it is => thread closed.

I find this post quite offensive to the person who started the thread. First of all, doesn't it seem logical that a person from Location A would be more interested in an article referring to Location A than one referring to Location H since the matter being discussed could directly affect them? That's just common sense. Secondly, I find it a little on the surprising side that this is mentioned in a thread about Texas when there's a million Florida threads by Florida people. And then after commenting about KatDaddy posting this because it was about his area being potentially affected, you chime in that your area has a better shot at being hit by a major. Just a little ironic, but I PRAY you're right about Texas. We've had enough over here!

I don't know about the rest of the mods, but reading through this whole thread at once, I don't think the attitudes in here are helping much in trying to get Storm2k back to what it was...a friendly place for discussion where people can post comments and ask questions without the fear of getting ridiculed. Perhaps you should read this thread again...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=82757

[skysummit]

Ok. I appologize. I was one of the first who posted against Accuweather. Hopefully I didn't offend anyone or get anyone too angry. I love S2K!

I promise to be good from now on.

[gatorcane]

find this post quite offensive to the person who started the thread. First of all, doesn't it seem logical that a person from Location A would be more interested in an article referring to Location A than one referring to Location H since the matter being discussed could directly affect them? That's just common sense. Secondly, I find it a little on the surprising side that this is mentioned in a thread about Texas when there's a million Florida threads by Florida people. And then after commenting about KatDaddy posting this because it was about his area being potentially affected, you chime in that your area has a better shot at being hit by a major. Just a little ironic, but I PRAY you're right about Texas. We've had enough over here!

I don't know about the rest of the mods, but reading through this whole thread at once, I don't think the attitudes in here are helping much in trying to get Storm2k back to what it was...a friendly place for discussion where people can post comments and ask questions without the fear of getting ridiculed. Perhaps you should read this thread again...

Thank you for this opinion. The point I am trying to make is that we as members get nothing out of threads like this. I once posted threads like this (for FL) and realized it is a waste of time talking about it because nobody truly knows. Also regarding the Florida input - based on historical statistics - FL has a higher percentage chance of getting hit by a hurricane than Texas, of course, anything could happen.