Accu-weather: NE US and Upper TX Coast a Target

[KatDaddy]

Dont shoot the messenger:

Excerpt from story and link to full story listed below.

Threat of Major Hurricane Strike Grows for Northeast
AccuWeather.com Warns That "Weather Disaster of Historic Proportions" Could Strike as Early as This Year

(New York, NY - March 20, 2006) - The northeast U.S. coast could be the target of a major hurricane, perhaps as early as this season, according to research announced today by the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center research meteorologists have identified weather cycles that indicate which U.S. coastal areas are most susceptible to landfalls. "If you examine past weather cycles that have occurred in the Atlantic, you will see patterns of storms," added Ken Reeves, Expert Senior Meteorologist and Director of Forecasting Operations at AccuWeather.com. "Determination of where we are in the cycle has enabled AccuWeather.com meteorologists to accurately predict hurricane activity in Florida in 2004 and along the Gulf Coast last year. There are indications that the Northeast will experience a hurricane larger and more powerful than anything that region has seen in a long time."

The current cycle and above-normal water temperatures are reminiscent of the pattern that eventually produced the 1938 hurricane that struck Providence, R.I. That storm killed 600 people in New England and Long Island. The 1938 hurricane was the strongest tropical system to strike the northeastern U.S. in recorded history, with maximum gusts of 186 mph, a 15- to 20-foot storm surge and 25- to 50-foot waves that left much of Providence under 10-15 feet of water. Forecasters at AccuWeather.com say that patterns are similar to those of the 1930s, 40s and 50s when storms such as the 1938 hurricane, the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricanes and the Trio of 1954--Carol, Edna and Hazel--battered the coast from the Carolinas to New England. The worry is that it will be sooner, rather than later, for this region to be blasted again.



Additionally, AccuWeather.com believes that the upper Texas coast is likely to be the target of higher than normal hurricane and tropical storm activity over the next 10 years. "Hurricane Rita was a warning shot," says AccuWeather.com's Bastardi, referring to the 2005 Category 5 storm that threatened the Houston area and made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border last September. "The Texas coast is in for a long period of tropical activity, particularly the region from Corpus Christi to Sabine Pass at the Louisiana border."



http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.a ... age=nehurr

[boca]

I hope no one gets hit this year and maybe Florida can get a break this year.

[LaBreeze]

Totally agree Boca, and we need a break as well here in LA. We just need some rainfall right now - no storms.

[Weatherfreak000]

Slackuweather, that's an old article btw.


Ignore it I say

[sponger]

I caught the end of Joe Bastardi on fox 2 weeks ago talking about this. Talk about an area thats unprepared.

[skysummit]

"Weather Disaster of Historic Proportions".....boy, you know that's Slaccuweather talking.

[x-y-no]

(New York, NY - March 20, 2006) - The northeast U.S. coast could be the target of a major hurricane, perhaps as early as this season, according to research announced today by the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center.

"could" ... "perhaps" ... WOW ... what a bold prediction!


Mind you I'm not saying they're wrong, just that it isn't a particualrly earth-shattering prediction.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like TX is in for a rough 10 years..

[benny]

This topic is like a bad penny.. it just won't go away How many people also remember Bastardi pronouncing that after Dennis/Emily everything was going to shift to the East Coast of the USA??? There's just not much science here and very little expertise. You can't selectively verify a landfall forecast and say that you got it right. This company seems to have no accountability and it really allows them to say whatever they want at little cost to themselves. *rant off*

Does anyone have a copy of their (Accu) old forecasts lying around somewhere? I have a feeling I have seen them around somewhere... something about Ophelia.. Gabrielle of a few years ago... there are some memorable ones. Not like TPC hasn't issued some bad forecasts but at least you know exactly what you are getting there.

[SouthFloridawx]

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center research meteorologists have identified weather cycles that indicate which U.S. coastal areas are most susceptible to landfalls. "If you examine past weather cycles that have occurred in the Atlantic, you will see patterns of storms,"

*cough* BS!! Please most people know there is no pattern of storms from year to year. You can not say because such and such happend in 1938 a storm will hit a said area. I certainly hope they are not right... would certainly help that santorum thing going on.

[Javlin]

The current cycle and above-normal water temperatures are reminiscent of the pattern that eventually produced the 1938 hurricane that struck Providence, R.I. That storm killed 600 people in New England and Long Island............I really have no problem with forecast like this ABOUT an area hell we have here many times already had this discussion that these areas might be more prone this year.One of the members here last season made the note first FL in 04 then NGOM in 05 things look to be moving W.The problem I have is when they make the claim like that above over sensitizing the prediction.We have no idea if a said storm heads that way all what elements will be present at the time.It could end up being anything from a TS on up.If it should happen.Seems to be your typical modern day journalism.

[Portastorm]

One thing comes to mind ... most of us in Texas are now in either severe or "exceptional" drought conditions that has stretched over several years. Over the last 100 years, many droughts in our state have been alleviated if not broken by tropical weather (tropical storms and hurricanes).

I'm not saying it'll be 2006 ... but soon enough the inevitable will happen. Heck, it's now been 23 years since a major hurricane made landfall at a moderately-to-heavily populated area of Texas (Alicia, 1983).

[alicia-w]

good grief, they have a 50/50 chance of this happening. if it does, then they were prophetic, if they werent, well, that's accuweather!

[Extremeweatherguy]

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center research meteorologists have identified weather cycles that indicate which U.S. coastal areas are most susceptible to landfalls. "If you examine past weather cycles that have occurred in the Atlantic, you will see patterns of storms,"

*cough* BS!! Please most people know there is no pattern of storms from year to year. You can not say because such and such happend in 1938 a storm will hit a said area. I certainly hope they are not right... would certainly help that santorum thing going on.

actually a yearly pattern can be produced. A la nina year typically favors cape verde storms, a neutral year can go either way, and an El nino year favors fewer, and weaker near-home developing storms. Also, if you look back at worldwide conditions of the past, there can be connections between those seasons and the seasons of today.

[KWT]

I tell you waht, I certainly woulsdn't mind if the eastern atlantic was as active as it was last hurricane season, I enjoyed seeing storms so close to where I live, we don't see those near here that often.

[rockyman]

This article makes my blood boil

And the worst part is, when this article came out, all the major news outlets covered the story as if it were gospel.

Exactly what "pattern" or "cycle" are we in this season that we were not in last season...what makes this year the "East Coast year"? I believe last year Bastardi prognosticated an East Coast season. Boy, he was right on target...They had Ophelia and....and....well, that was about it. If there had really been "signs" last year, then Bastardi should have predicted 3 Cat 5s in the Gomex and West Carib (which he did not), 2 Cat 4s in July (oops, he missed that "sign" again)...

I cut Accuweather some "slack" last year...but this garbarge story has pushed me over the top...All this ranting has made me thirsty, can someone pass me the Hate-or-rade ??

[Extremeweatherguy]

This article makes my blood boil

And the worst part is, when this article came out, all the major news outlets covered the story as if it were gospel.

Exactly what "pattern" or "cycle" are we in this season that we were not in last season...what makes this year the "East Coast year"? I believe last year Bastardi prognosticated an East Coast season. Boy, he was right on target...They had Ophelia and....and....well, that was about it. If there had really been "signs" last year, then Bastardi should have predicted 3 Cat 5s in the Gomex and West Carib (which he did not), 2 Cat 4s in July (oops, he missed that "sign" again)...

I cut Accuweather some "slack" last year...but this garbarge story has pushed me over the top...All this ranting has made me thirsty, can someone pass me the Hate-or-rade ??

Actually last year in his June Hurricane outlook, Joe Bastardi said, and I quote from the outlook:

This year I like a congregation center southwest of last years, over the eastern Gulf, and perhaps the idea of an alley into Central America or Gulf.

He was dead on there.

Also, when he predicted which "zones" would see the highest activity...he predicted that it would be Zones 3 and 4 (which is an area from New Orleans to Key West). Once again he was dead on.

I think that overall his early predictions for last year were pretty good, yes he did mess up a few times during the season, but really you can not expect everyone to be perfect. right?

BTW: Last year in his June outlook, he did not forecast any heightened risk of a Mid Atlantic or NE hurricane.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This topic is like a bad penny.. it just won't go away How many people also remember Bastardi pronouncing that after Dennis/Emily everything was going to shift to the East Coast of the USA??? There's just not much science here and very little expertise. You can't selectively verify a landfall forecast and say that you got it right. This company seems to have no accountability and it really allows them to say whatever they want at little cost to themselves. *rant off*

Does anyone have a copy of their (Accu) old forecasts lying around somewhere? I have a feeling I have seen them around somewhere... something about Ophelia.. Gabrielle of a few years ago... there are some memorable ones. Not like TPC hasn't issued some bad forecasts but at least you know exactly what you are getting there.

Actually on July 20th Joe Bastardi updated his hurricane outlook and predicted the following things:

-A Cat. 3+ hurricane hit along the CENTRAL GULF, FLORIDA and NC. (He was right on with 2 of those..almost was right with NC if Ophelia had been stronger).

-A Hurricane hit on Texas. (He was also right on this one. RITA!!)

-A hurricane hit on New England or the Maritimes. (He was wrong on this one).

I do not see these predictions as him saying that everything will shift east. It looks like, to me at least, that he was still predicting a busy Gulf with the "possibility" of an east coast storm or two.

[skysummit]

He makes SO SO SO many forecasts, of course he will get some dead on. Funny how the incorrect ones go unnoticed. His forecasts are a slap in the face of meteorlogy as far as I'm concerned.

[Stratosphere747]

This topic is like a bad penny.. it just won't go away How many people also remember Bastardi pronouncing that after Dennis/Emily everything was going to shift to the East Coast of the USA??? There's just not much science here and very little expertise. You can't selectively verify a landfall forecast and say that you got it right. This company seems to have no accountability and it really allows them to say whatever they want at little cost to themselves. *rant off*

Does anyone have a copy of their (Accu) old forecasts lying around somewhere? I have a feeling I have seen them around somewhere... something about Ophelia.. Gabrielle of a few years ago... there are some memorable ones. Not like TPC hasn't issued some bad forecasts but at least you know exactly what you are getting there.

Actually on July 20th Joe Bastardi updated his hurricane outlook and predicted the following things:

-A Cat. 3+ hurricane hit along the CENTRAL GULF, FLORIDA and NC. (He was right on with 2 of those..almost was right with NC if Ophelia had been stronger).

-A Hurricane hit on Texas. (He was also right on this one. RITA!!)

-A hurricane hit on New England or the Maritimes. (He was wrong on this one).

I do not see these predictions as him saying that everything will shift east. It looks like, to me at least, that he was still predicting a busy Gulf with the "possibility" of an east coast storm or two.

Not so much a Bastardi bash Extreme.

But those predictions of his basically covers from Brownsville to Maine. Not really going out on a limb there.