Possible tropical System Forming in the Bahamas?

[gatorcane]

And dry air and subsidence surrounding the area.

Yep just posted that at the same time you did!

[LSU_Weatherguy]

This is not a offical forecast this is a wishcast....I repeat this is a wishcast.

Tropical depression 1#
3pm est
4-12-2006
Advisorie one


....Tropical depression forms off Florida's coast expected to bomb into hurricane over the next 36 hours. The system should head for the Florida keys, once into the gulf it should then hit the loop current then bomb into a cat5. All models show very faverable upper levels once and the gulf. The loop is near 82 to 85 degrees. The shear maps as of this moment show 20 to 50 knot shear over our cyclone. With cool sst's which is holding the bear down. But once into the Gulf this bear should be let off its rope.

Forecaster Max mayfield feels that people should start leaving the gulf area as soon as possible, He says the avn,Ecmwf,Eta/Nam all show a southwestward movement then a northwestward movement after that.


0 30 knots
6 35 knots
12 50 knots
24 80 knots
36 105 knots
48 140 knots In the bear go wild!!!
60 170 knots
72 200 knots making landfall in LA.
84 120 knots moving into St.louis.
96 80 knots making landfall on the south pole...

Forecaster Matthew

Repeat repeat this is a wishcast!!!

So why Louisiana have we not had enough.........i wish it back to spain

[feederband]

Anyway, it looks like a sheared mess.

And dry air and subsidence surrounding the area.

Yeah ..But I think we are rooting for a upset..

[MiamiensisWx]

If it moves slowly and stays in the moister environment it is in now with decreasing shear, it may have a slight chance; however, it is a SLIGHT chance, like I have said before.

[skysummit]

Maybe it's going to create its own environment

[meteorologyman]

this is an interesting set up

tail of a low in panhandle Florida moving SE

Dry air over cental Florida

and a "Low" trying to form

[MiamiensisWx]

Maybe it's going to create its own environment

That could happen; it is not impossible.

[whereverwx]

Well, call me Rip Van Winkle; wake me up when something happens.

[CHRISTY]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now let's not get too crazy about this system I mean it is April. But I hope it becomes a hurricane and hits Florida. Wishcast.

Me to

[Air Force Met]

negative Matt -

Shear is forecasted to relax to 20K in 24 hours....

shear is not that bad in the next couple of days take a look...

I'll chime in here...been out the last couple if days (those who lurk in the off topic area know why...

The reason the shear is low is because that is the MIDDLE of the upper low...not the MIDDLE of the upper high....which is the difference b/w a tropical system and once that's not. Shear is always low in the middle of an upper level low.

The forecat for this is it's an asymetric border-line system that should transition into a cold-core one.

[skysummit]

I tell you what...when Slaccuweather reads this thread this evening to find out what's going on in the Tropics, I'm sure they'll issue one of their 'Possible Disaster of Historic Proportions" forecasts.

[MiamiensisWx]

Needs more convection and less shear; not entirely out of the question, though.

[meteorologyman]

Here is a motion picture of the low

http://www.weather.com/maps/oceans.html

[CHRISTY]

negative Matt -

Shear is forecasted to relax to 20K in 24 hours....

shear is not that bad in the next couple of days take a look...

I'll chime in here...been out the last couple if days (those who lurk in the off topic area know why...

The reason the shear is low is because that is the MIDDLE of the upper low...not the MIDDLE of the upper high....which is the difference b/w a tropical system and once that's not. Shear is always low in the middle of an upper level low.

The forecat for this is it's an asymetric border-line system that should transition into a cold-core one.

so then's there's nothing!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

negative Matt -

Shear is forecasted to relax to 20K in 24 hours....

shear is not that bad in the next couple of days take a look...

I'll chime in here...been out the last couple if days (those who lurk in the off topic area know why...

The reason the shear is low is because that is the MIDDLE of the upper low...not the MIDDLE of the upper high....which is the difference b/w a tropical system and once that's not. Shear is always low in the middle of an upper level low.

The forecat for this is it's an asymetric border-line system that should transition into a cold-core one.

I sadly agree. Can't wait intill June. The engine will start powering up!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

It is looking a bit poorer now...

[meteorologyman]

the strom is over 77 F on SST

[feederband]

negative Matt -

Shear is forecasted to relax to 20K in 24 hours....

shear is not that bad in the next couple of days take a look...

I'll chime in here...been out the last couple if days (those who lurk in the off topic area know why...

The reason the shear is low is because that is the MIDDLE of the upper low...not the MIDDLE of the upper high....which is the difference b/w a tropical system and once that's not. Shear is always low in the middle of an upper level low.

The forecat for this is it's an asymetric border-line system that should transition into a cold-core one.

Is the system you are referring to the little spin we are seeing? ..Or that whole area in general?

[skysummit]

It is looking a bit poorer now...

LOL....well, at least we got up to 2 lines for the users list. That was fun!