Possible tropical System Forming in the Bahamas?

[MiamiensisWx]

Also to note if by some slim chance something develops at the lower levels it will not be heading towards florida as the stearing flow would send it southwesterly.

I agree. I think it may pass by the Keys and extreme southern tip of Florida.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif

sst's 24c....

[MiamiensisWx]

If something happens meaning getting better organized enough to get an invest there will be a new thread that will be made.

Luis, is this the first time you have mentioned the possibility of an INVEST so early and in such a rather enthusiastic manner?

[skysummit]

I wonder if this thread will break 100 pages

If something happens meaning getting better organized enough to get an invest there will be a new thread that will be made.

Oh poo.

So....you said "if"....are you also in agreement with the possiblity of this getting better developed???

I really need to stop this and get back to work.

[whereverwx]

Has a storm ever develop in April before? If not this could be our 1st.

Ana in 2003.

BTW, I'm really starting to doubt development now--wait--I never expected development.

[meteorologyman]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N10W 4N20W 2N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO 2S45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3S TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W...OVER
LAND AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 15W AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
THE RIDGE THAT STRETCHED FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND
BEYOND HAS SEEN ITS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTATION CHANGE TO MORE
OF SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ANGLE. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS SWEPT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR U.S.A. AND PUSHED THE NORTHERN EXTENSION
OF THIS RIDGE EASTWARD ALSO...FROM GEORGIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE
U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO
HAS BEEN PUSHED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A CUT-OFF LOW CENTER MAY DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...WHERE THE GFS HAS BEEN MAKING A FORECAST
OF A SURFACE LOW. THIN HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE RIDGE COVER THE
GULF WATERS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 29N83W 24N89W 21N94W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CONFLUENT LINES OF LOW CLOUDS...MOST
NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND NORTH
OF 22N EAST OF 90W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN THE AREA FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 77W
AND 78W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TOWARD EASTERN
HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS COMBINED FEATURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 68W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH
OF 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THIS TROUGH/LOW CENTER. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N67W BEYOND 32N59W.
A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 22N73W TO 26N70W TO 30N64W AND BEYOND 32N60W. A SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS FROM 17N70W TO 24N67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FOUND NORTH OF
15N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS SOUTH OF THE LINE
FROM 16N60W TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO 15N78W TO 12N81W.
AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND MAXIMA PERSISTS AND HAS BEEN
PERSISTING FOR THE LAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND MAXIMA FLOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO
PANAMA STRAIGHT TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND EVENTUALLY INTO
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO THE
12/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA WEST OF 70W RANGE
FROM 60 KT TO 90 KT...AND FROM 40 KT TO 60 KT EAST OF 70W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. A SURFACE 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 28N35W. A LOW CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR
28N35W. A TROUGH FROM THE WATER VAPOR LOW CENTER REACHES 17N37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO 35N BETWEEN 28W AND 38W.

(NOAA)

[cycloneye]

I wonder if this thread will break 100 pages

If something happens meaning getting better organized enough to get an invest there will be a new thread that will be made.

Oh poo.

So....you said "if"....are you also in agreement with the possiblity of this getting better developed???

I really need to stop this and get back to work.

Big if.However nothing is impossible in the tropics as they are with surprises many times.

[MiamiensisWx]

This thread is growing quickly!

[skysummit]

Same ole' Disco.

[gatorcane]

cycloneye has posted! This must be getting somewhat more serious.

[SouthFloridawx]

Agreed Luis BIG IF!! I understand the excitement but, this is looking like a NO on tropical development.

[skysummit]

Hey....is anyone else pressing F5 repeatedly on the Navy page?

[MiamiensisWx]

cycloneye has posted! This must be getting somewhat more serious.

Read his post. He says it's a possibility, but that we have to wait and see. It's a BIG if.

[HurricaneHunter914]

It still is a possibility.

[cycloneye]

cycloneye has posted! This must be getting somewhat more serious.

Nothing serious here.

[CHRISTY]

Has a storm ever develop in April before? If not this could be our 1st.

Ana in 2003.

BTW, I'm really starting to doubt development now--wait--I never expected development.

yes u are correct take a look!

[gatorcane]

Nothing serious here

Yeah I figured such, this thread could break 100 pages....

[KWT]

I think you must remember Vince, Delta, Epsilon and Zeta, Matt. all four+STS 19 formed in 23-24c temps, though upper air temps were colder for those storms then what is present over the Bahamas.

I'll be suprised if anything forms, but you just don't know I suppose!
Might become a invest though if it can keep going.

[meteorologyman]

Interesting storm with Ana

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is not a offical forecast this is a wishcast....I repeat this is a wishcast.

Tropical depression 1#
3pm est
4-12-2006
Advisorie one


....Tropical depression forms off Florida's coast expected to bomb into hurricane over the next 36 hours. The system should head for the Florida keys, once into the gulf it should then hit the loop current then bomb into a cat5. All models show very faverable upper levels once and the gulf. The loop is near 82 to 85 degrees. The shear maps as of this moment show 20 to 50 knot shear over our cyclone. With cool sst's which is holding the bear down. But once into the Gulf this bear should be let off its rope.

Forecaster Max mayfield feels that people should start leaving the gulf area as soon as possible, He says the avn,Ecmwf,Eta/Nam all show a southwestward movement then a northwestward movement after that.


0 30 knots
6 35 knots
12 50 knots
24 80 knots
36 105 knots
48 140 knots In the bear go wild!!!
60 170 knots
72 200 knots making landfall in LA.
84 120 knots moving into St.louis.
96 80 knots making landfall on the south pole...

Forecaster Matthew

Repeat repeat this is a wishcast!!!