Above average temps for Gulf coast in summer (not good sign)

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... 2_temp.gif



Check out the map. I don't think this bodes well for the sea surface temps. GOM may be boiling if this holds true.

[SouthFloridawx]

I see florida is in the Above normal catagory.

[BayouVenteux]

Check out the map. I don't think this bodes well for the sea surface temps. GOM may be boiling if this holds true.

Yep. With the warm, dry La Nina winter and spring the Gulf Coast has - and apparently will continue to - experience this year, the Gulf has remained quite warm and of course will only warm further as we head into summer. Though SST's are only one part of the equation for tropical development, they certainly are worth noting when much the GoM is as warm as it is, this early in the year.

[CHRISTY]

[Ixolib]

--- looks like a Lava Lamp ---

[Evil Jeremy]

lol

[MGC]

Where are the black lites?.....MGC

[Dionne]

It looks like a river of warm sea water flowing in between the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba.........heading north, right into the gulf. Interesting graphics.

[benny]

As some have pointed out in the past.. it doesn't really matter how hot the GOM gets. This fact has been proven time and again in the WestPac where the water routinely gets to 90 and nothing happens. There has to be a disturbance of some magnitude come into the region.. SSTS near 28C and above are plenty warm enough for a major hurricane, 32C doesn't make a lick of difference especially since it really isn't that deep of a mixed layer in any portion besides the loop current and any eddys..

[hicksta]

almost time..

[Margie]

It looks like a river of warm sea water flowing in between the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba.........heading north, right into the gulf. Interesting graphics.

That is the loop current (so called because it loops up into the GOM and then out south of Florida, and up into the Gulf Stream), and the start of an eddy at the top. The eddies pull off like taffy from the main flow and these rounded blobs of warm water move to the NW (usually). Last year, the eddies were particularly far north in the GOM, and this is what contributed to Katrina intensifying so close to the shallow continental shelf south of LA. Rita intensified in the loop current itself, and then dodged between two of the eddies when moving towards the western LA coastline (hurricanes are not steered by warm water, but by the atmosphere). The loop current also helped Wilma intensify before the FL landfall.

It is the deep warm water of the loop current and associated loop eddies that make rapid intensification of hurricanes in the GOM possible. Once intensified, if a hurricane is moving rapidly over warm SSTs, it can maintain a lot of its intensity, but in order to intensify in the first place, has to be over the deep warm water.

The cycle of how far north the loop current eddies move, is not an annual one. So it remains to be seen for this coming season how far north the eddies will flow, and this will have an inpact on the intensification of any possible GOM hurricanes, much more so than SSTs in the GOM.

Having said that, remember that along many places in the GOM coastline having a long shallow shelf, even a Cat 2 can bring enough surge for significant flooding to occur.

[CHRISTY]

LOOK HOW HURRICANE KATRINA INTENSIFIED AS SHE CROSSED THE LOOP CURRENT AND THE EDDY VORTEX.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPG

[HouTXmetro]

You put Wilma's track up twice.

[Ixolib]

Hey Christy - Don't suppose you'd like to shrink that second one a bit, huh??

If you can keep the width of your posted graphics (or better yet just post the link to the graphic) at about 600 or 700, that would be helpful for ALL of us.

[weatherwoman132]

why dont they show up those type of graphics on the news, when they are doing hurricane updates? I mean, then, we could see that it would intensify, and fast, not only the meterologists

[windycity]

I think the reason why i dont think the local mets show these type of graphs and go into more detail is because most people wouldnt have a clue what they were talking about! I dont think any of my friends know what SSTs are, let alone enso cycles! I guess thats why they need us !

[Johnny]

As some have pointed out in the past.. it doesn't really matter how hot the GOM gets. This fact has been proven time and again in the WestPac where the water routinely gets to 90 and nothing happens. There has to be a disturbance of some magnitude come into the region..


Good point and that's common sense stuff. BUT the concern for very warm waters comes from a different angle and for very good reason.

It looks like we will have above normal temp. readings through much of the g.o.m. this hurricane season. IF a system gets in the gulf with a low shear environment with very warm bath water to work with...any system will more than likely rapidly intensify in a major storm especially if it crosses over an eddie (see Margie's post).

[Ivanhater]

currently 82.6 off Pensacola..wow

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html

[meteorologyman]

currently 82.6 off Pensacola..wow

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html

83.5 now LESS THAN 2 HOURS TO!