Possible tropical System Forming in the Bahamas?

[skysummit]

Oh yea...it's naked all right. There's no chance for it for sure.

[greels]

We are receiving some terrible weather here today.....very gusty winds and heavy downpours.....
I am concerned with flooding here on the island once this weather system goes through here.
Gretchen

[jrod]

There is some rotation so there is still a chance.

[HurricaneHunter914]

It's a very small chance as long as the shear prevails. It could have had a better chance if it formed several days ago when the shear was lower.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

CARIBBEAN/GREATER ANTILLES/SERN MEXICO...

THE CAN/GFS ARE BACK TO FORMING A SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL LOW NR
HISPANIOLA DURING THE SHORT RANGE PD AND TRACKING IT WWD THROUGH
THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND SRN GULF OF MEXICO. SINCE AN UPR CYC IS
CLOSING OFF ATTM NR CUBA...A SFC LOW IS PSBL. FOR NOW...PER
COORDINATION W/TAFB...HAVE INTRODUCED AN ELY WAVE MOVG THRU THE
WRN CARIBBEAN AND SRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CANADIAN FCST A SIMILAR
SITUATION BACK IN FEBRUARY...AND NOTHING MORE THAN A SFC TROUGH
DVLPD. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM TAFB/TPC ON THIS SYS.

ROTH/CLARK


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[benny]

A lot of the models are indicating some sort of weak low formation... this is true. However it just doesn't look very tropical at all... raging SW winds aloft... a boundary layer that is rather stable with dewpoints below 70... and then there is still that front attached. maybe on Thu it will look its best... whatever it is. probably a lot of much needed rain for the n and nw caribbean though.

[Evil Jeremy]

if it sucks in the convection from the other side of Florida, it could have a chance!!! i live in Ft. Larderdale, and the weather has been horrible at times!!!

EDIT: look at the NHC Vapor Satellite for the Caribbean!!! you can see a spin below Florida and in Cuba! and the clump of comvection might be forming somthing too.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cheezyWXguy]

It looks very dry tho...I dont think it has much of a chance

[Evil Jeremy]

its somthing to watch

[gatorcane]

Wind shear is out of the WSW at around 40-50K in the area. There is pocket of only 20K to the north. Water temps are in the mid to upper 70s and even lower 80s in the Gulf Stream.

The weather for South Florida along the East Coast is pretty awful due to this feature and a High to the north (which is causing a tight pressure gradient). Expect winds out of the ENE at 15-20mph gusting as high as 25-30mph through at least Thurs.

[CHRISTY]

Lots of Covection over the BAHAMAS conditions right now are not very favorable for development...But i still think its worth watching!

[gatorcane]

Lots of Covection over the BAHAMAS conditions right now are not very favorable for development...But i still think its worth watching!

If it were not for the 40K-50K of shear out of the WSW I'd say we would be seeing a depression forming - but of course we are in April, what do you expect?

However did anybody read the Tropical Weather Discussion for today? Funny how they are toying with the idea of a hybrid system, although leaning towards a negative:

000
AXNT20 KNHC 112310
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 3N31W 1S46W. NEW QUIKSCAT
SUGGESTS A WEAK TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ITCZ S OF 6N
ALONG 28W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 5N26.5W...
1N14.5W AND 3N38W. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO S OF 1N W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION NOW THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
MOVED WELL E AND HAS JUST LEFT BEHIND SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE W GULF WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING IS SITTING NEAR FLORIDA WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT
IN THE E GULF. THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LOOKS THE MOST UNSETTLED
WITH WINDS APPROACHING 30 KT AT TIMES AND PASSING SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE NO FRONTS ARE ON THE HORIZON THRU THE WEEKEND. ELY
WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER SLY
COMPONENT SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
THE MAJORITY OF CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE RATHER BENIGN WITH TRADES
RELAXING AND A FEW PASSING LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS.. MOVING E OF 72W.
ITCZ SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N. THINGS
ARE MUCH MORE UNSETTLED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD INTO
THE W ATLC AS A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS. AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 80W IS COMBINING WITH A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 22.5N74W NE TO
31N62W E OF BERMUDA TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM OF THE FRONT
AND FROM 20N-22.5N BETWEEN 69W-78W. STRONG WINDS TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE JUST TO THE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE E COAST OF THE USA. COMPUTER MODELS
REALLY AREN'T SURE WHAT TO DO WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE NOW FORMING A WEAK SURFACE LOW BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS AND DRIFTING IT WESTWARD. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ISN'T ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET ANY HYBRID TYPE
OF SYSTEM GOING WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR... DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S... AND SW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT FORECAST
OVER THE SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE RELATED
CONVECTION AND CAUSE RAIN NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. RAIN SHOULD
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE ABC
ISLANDS BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD.
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 56W/57W IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND COULD INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES TOMORROW.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BASICALLY A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS IN CONTROL WITH
RIDGING W OF 50W... TROUGHING FROM 31N34W 20N40W 13N50W... AND A
LARGE UPPER HIGH NEAR GUINEA IN W AFRICA COVERING THE SE ATLC.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CENTRAL/E ATLC FROM
25W-60W WITH ANY SHOWERS VERY SHALLOW-BASED. PATCHY
STRATOCUMULUS ARE OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY N OF 20N BETWEEN
30W-60W. TRADES ARE AT NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE E ATLC
SAVE NEAR A CUTOFF LOW NEAR 32N22W. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE E ATLC.. UPPER RIDGING WILL GROW IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND FORM A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 12N48W ON SAT...
EXCEPTIONALLY FAR TO THE N FOR APRIL (OR EVEN MAY).

$$
BLAKE

[CHRISTY]

Look at this map, which shows the probability of a tropical cyclone forming.

[CHRISTY]

Lots of Covection over the BAHAMAS conditions right now are not very favorable for development...But i still think its worth watching!

If it were not for the 40K-50K of shear out of the WSW I'd say we would be seeing a depression forming - but of course we are in April, what do you expect?

However did anybody read the Tropical Weather Discussion for today? Funny how they are toying with the idea of a hybrid system, although leaning towards a negative:

000
AXNT20 KNHC 112310
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 3N31W 1S46W. NEW QUIKSCAT
SUGGESTS A WEAK TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ITCZ S OF 6N
ALONG 28W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 5N26.5W...
1N14.5W AND 3N38W. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO S OF 1N W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION NOW THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
MOVED WELL E AND HAS JUST LEFT BEHIND SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE W GULF WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING IS SITTING NEAR FLORIDA WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT
IN THE E GULF. THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LOOKS THE MOST UNSETTLED
WITH WINDS APPROACHING 30 KT AT TIMES AND PASSING SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE NO FRONTS ARE ON THE HORIZON THRU THE WEEKEND. ELY
WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER SLY
COMPONENT SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
THE MAJORITY OF CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE RATHER BENIGN WITH TRADES
RELAXING AND A FEW PASSING LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS.. MOVING E OF 72W.
ITCZ SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N. THINGS
ARE MUCH MORE UNSETTLED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD INTO
THE W ATLC AS A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS. AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 80W IS COMBINING WITH A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 22.5N74W NE TO
31N62W E OF BERMUDA TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM OF THE FRONT
AND FROM 20N-22.5N BETWEEN 69W-78W. STRONG WINDS TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE JUST TO THE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE E COAST OF THE USA. COMPUTER MODELS
REALLY AREN'T SURE WHAT TO DO WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE NOW FORMING A WEAK SURFACE LOW BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS AND DRIFTING IT WESTWARD. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ISN'T ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET ANY HYBRID TYPE
OF SYSTEM GOING WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR... DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S... AND SW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT FORECAST
OVER THE SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE RELATED
CONVECTION AND CAUSE RAIN NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. RAIN SHOULD
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE ABC
ISLANDS BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD.
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 56W/57W IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND COULD INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES TOMORROW.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BASICALLY A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS IN CONTROL WITH
RIDGING W OF 50W... TROUGHING FROM 31N34W 20N40W 13N50W... AND A
LARGE UPPER HIGH NEAR GUINEA IN W AFRICA COVERING THE SE ATLC.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CENTRAL/E ATLC FROM
25W-60W WITH ANY SHOWERS VERY SHALLOW-BASED. PATCHY
STRATOCUMULUS ARE OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY N OF 20N BETWEEN
30W-60W. TRADES ARE AT NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE E ATLC
SAVE NEAR A CUTOFF LOW NEAR 32N22W. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE E ATLC.. UPPER RIDGING WILL GROW IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND FORM A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 12N48W ON SAT...
EXCEPTIONALLY FAR TO THE N FOR APRIL (OR EVEN MAY).

$$
BLAKE

CHECK THIS OUT!

CARIBBEAN/GREATER ANTILLES/SERN MEXICO...
THE CAN/GFS ARE BACK TO FORMING A SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL LOW NR
HISPANIOLA DURING THE SHORT RANGE PD AND TRACKING IT WWD THROUGH
THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND SRN GULF OF MEXICO. SINCE AN UPR CYC IS
CLOSING OFF ATTM NR CUBA...A SFC LOW IS PSBL. FOR NOW...PER
COORDINATION W/TAFB...HAVE INTRODUCED AN ELY WAVE MOVG THRU THE
WRN CARIBBEAN AND SRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CANADIAN FCST A SIMILAR
SITUATION BACK IN FEBRUARY...AND NOTHING MORE THAN A SFC TROUGH
DVLPD. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM TAFB/TPC ON THIS SYS.

ROTH/CLARK

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yes! Come on Alberto show us the money.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahooo come on Alberto wahoo!!!

[george_r_1961]

Wahooo come on Alberto wahoo!!!

Dont hold your breath. Im no expert but it appears to me anything that does form will not be warm core, just another run of the mill cold core low.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ana and Alberto. What a nice ring to it. The only two storms to form in April. If I'm wrong please correct me.

[HURAKAN]

Ana and Alberto. What a nice ring to it. The only two storms to form in April. If I'm wrong please correct me.

They would be the only two named storms in April, but Alberto would be the thrid storm of April. Remember the subtropical storm that developed NE of the Leeward Islands in 1992.

[HURAKAN]

Wahooo come on Alberto wahoo!!!

Dont hold your breath. Im no expert but it appears to me anything that does form will not be warm core, just another run of the mill cold core low.

There is nothing else in the world except for the low pressure in the Indian Ocean, so even thought the possibility is slim, lets just enjoy the little excitement!!!