All recon since 1989 now on NHC Site!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I wish they would bring back the last 15 years of advisories.

[benny]

about the Hugo FL info

the 162KT came from 1500 feet, according to the NHC tropical cyclone report, not 700mb.

the result of one flight too low into Hugo was nearly disaster

I think you confused the AF with NOAA:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... elim02.gif

Basically it says they recorded 165 kt at 1500 ft (that was the initial NOAA flight that met the storm with 918 mb). However the fix above with the 162 kt was the AF at 700 mb (who knew not to fly into the storm that low).

[Derek Ortt]

the 162 was not included in the NHC report (not sure why, but I know the AF had to guide the NOAA out of the hurricane). This is an important point as it determines if Hugo was a 4 or a 5 in the Atlantic. According to this, probably, according to their report, no

[benny]

By the way, wouldnt 170 kts for Andrew result in near 155 kts?

I think the longer average was close to 161 kt with a really small spike to 170 kt. .9 is just a guideline... i have seen anything from .85 to .9 used... and back in those days it was more like .8 to .85 of the 700 mb winds. of course there is an ongoing debate on how the vortex at 700 mb relates to the surface... it is pretty tough to get flight level winds much above 175 kt or to get drops or something to survive below that. at the extremes there will always be some uncertainty with a smaller sample size.

[CHRISTY]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS JUST MEASURED A 166 KT FLIGHT LEVEL
WIND IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL...WHICH REQUIRES AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO 150 KT. A DROP IN THE EYE
GAVE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB. KATRINA IS COMPARABLE IN
INTENSITY TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969...ONLY LARGER. GPS
DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION EARLIER TODAY SHOWED
KATRINA'S INTENSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING THROUGH THE 200 MB
LEVEL...WITH THE FLOW SPIRALING ANTICYLONICALLY OUTWARD IN A
WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN BEYOND A COUPLE HUNDRED
N MI FROM THE CENTER. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...DUE TO INTERNAL
STRUCTURAL CHANGES...ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANES
RARELY SUSTAIN SUCH EXTREME WINDS FOR MUCH TIME. HOWEVER WE SEE
NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE EFFECTS TO CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE OF CATEGORY
4 OR 5 INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

[brunota2003]

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hugo1.asp
That is the story of one of the flight crew aboard the NOAA aircraft that penetrated into Hugo, a Cat 5 at the time, at 1500 Ft...crazy??? yes...did they know it was that strong at the time??? no...very interesting read, with lots of pictures to...

[benny]

the 162 was not included in the NHC report (not sure why, but I know the AF had to guide the NOAA out of the hurricane). This is an important point as it determines if Hugo was a 4 or a 5 in the Atlantic. According to this, probably, according to their report, no

Back in those days it was optional to include any sort of flight level wind information as best as I understand it. They did include the maximum of 165 kt and I suppose they didn't think the max at 700 mb would be used like it was today. This is a nice data source though and should help to smooth thru some of the inconsistent ways that flight level winds were applied to the surface. Of course there are other questions with the flight level winds regarding accuracy in the old times (mostly prior to the 80s) that I have seen in old reports.

[P.K.]

This is great, Hopefully it will be updated during the season as the data comes in so finding info on storms will be easy if you aren't online at that point.