Yeah theres another thing over the south Atlantic

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has deep convection with a cirulation it is centered at 21.7/20.8...Interesting little system...What is your option on it?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Is this it?

[Weatherfreak000]

ummm....what? lol

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

At 20.7 south/21 west...Put it on loop.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

IMO Nothing is going to develop in the South Atlantic for at least 5 (for a weak depression/storm) and 20 (for a hurricane) years. Better luck next time.

[weatherwoman132]

but it's warm there.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Nah

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 092304
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N9W 4N20W 3N30W 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 14W-18W AND E
OF 12W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS S OF 4N BETWEEN 18W-30W. A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 90 NM OF 1.5N42.5W.


REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOST FAIR SKIES COVER THE AREA WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ. BASICALLY RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE UPPER PATTERN
IS IN PLACE WITH RIDGING IN THE ATLC W OF 55W... TROUGHING FROM
30N36W TO12N53W.. AND RIDGING FROM A HIGH NEAR 3N22W COVERING
THE SE ATLC. A FEW SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF AN UPPER LOW
(EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH) AROUND 23N41W. OTHERWISE A
LARGE BUT WEAKER-THAN-AVERAGE HIGH COVERS THE ATLC W OF 30W.
CUTOFF UPPER LOW E OF THE AZORES IS INCREASING THE MID/UPPER
CLOUDINESS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND NW AFRICA. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS... JETSTREAM RUNS FROM 14N60W 13N43W THEN SHOOTING NE
TOWARD THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
WITHIN 240 NM OF THE JET. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS LIE ACROSS THE REGION.. THICKEST TO THE N AND E..
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THE ITCZ CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE DUE TO
A STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE UPPER HIGH IN THE E ATLC AND PLENTY OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE TROUGH
DIGS IN THE W ATLC.. UPPER RIDGING WILL GROW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC. WEAK TROUGH/POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE IS AROUND 30W S OF
6N. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN EXACT AXIS BUT THE GFS
CARRIES IT WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

$$
BLAKE

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its about 78 or so degrees or maybe 80 at 20 south/30 so maybe slightly cooler under this.

[SouthFloridawx]

[senorpepr]

It has deep convection with a cirulation it is centered at 21.7/20.8...Interesting little system...What is your option on it?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html

Well, I don't have an "option" on it, but my opinion is that it is nothing to worry about. It's a bit too far south, well disconnected from the ITCZ, it has baroclinic origins, and the water temperatures are too cool (around the mid 70sF).

[benny]

I see no significant circulation around 21s 21w. there is a weak trough there but there is severe westerly shear. better luck with the mess near florida than that piece of junk

[Jim Hughes]

IMO Nothing is going to develop in the South Atlantic for at least 5 (for a weak depression/storm) and 20 (for a hurricane) years. Better luck next time.

I am curious about your time tables for SA development. Any particular reason for this ?



Jim

[Javlin]

Good to see you back in Jim had not seen you post in awhile.

[Jim Hughes]

Good to see you back in Jim had not seen you post in awhile.

I am still around Javlin. I try to catch up by stopping by every day or two. I plan on posting more as the season progresses.



Jim

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I am curious about your time tables for SA development. Any particular reason for this ?

Two reasons, actually:

1. I give an approximate range until, climatologically, there is even a slight chance at a storm forming down there.

and

2. So we can stop having threads on every cumulus cloud in the South Atlantic.

[senorpepr]

So we can stop having threads on every cumulus cloud in the South Atlantic.

Can we have threads on every stratocumulus cloud in the SAtl?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So we can stop having threads on every cumulus cloud in the South Atlantic.

Can we have threads on every stratocumulus cloud in the SAtl?

Ok

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is some Cumulus clouds south of Africa near 5 south/10 west to about 25 west. Then theres more Cumulus clouds with a frontal system just off the coast of south America near 22 to 30 south around 40 to 30 west.

That has been your Cumulus cloud update for today.

[brunota2003]

OH NO!!! THERE IS A CUMULUS CLOUD OFF OF SA...We Are All Going To DIE!!! ah...sound the alarms...matt missed a cumulus cloud... amazing what happens during the off-season, eh?