Statistical Chances of Major Hurricanes Hits for FL

[Bocadude85]

also check out this website whick backups my statments

http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/hurricane_new ... 21,00.html

[boca]

Jeanne was a major w/ 120mph winds at landfall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That is inaccurate Boca Dude, sorry:

Jeanne is the first major (Category 3 or higher) storm to make landfall on the east coast north of Palm Beach, Florida and south of the mouth of the Savannah River since 1899.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Jeanne_(2004)

This shows that the chances are slim that if you live north of Palm Beach along the E coast of FL you are not likely to get hit by a major.

well according to John Williams and Iver Duedall in their book Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms this did happen.

Yes, I have read that book too. It does indeed say this. I think that it is likely that these events DID happen, and a Cat. 3 north of Palm Beach is not as un-likely as one may think.

[gatorcane]

major hurricanes are unlikely north of West Palm simply because the Gulf Stream is only close to the State from Miami north to Palm Beach....once you get north of Palm Beach the Gulf stream is well offshore....so the warm water is not as close....as a result storms will weaken some as they approach the coast....

[jdray]

major hurricanes are unlikely north of West Palm simply because the Gulf Stream is only close to the State from Miami north to Palm Beach....once you get north of Palm Beach the Gulf stream is well offshore....so the warm water is not as close....as a result storms will weaken some as they approach the coast....

The Gulf Stream is only 50 miles out from the coast near the FLA/GA border.

That really doesn't make that huge of a difference.

Average SSTs in Jax in mid summer are mid 80's anyway. More than enough juice to power a big storm.

Plus factor a storm moving at 10mph would only be over the ""slightly"" colder water for less than 5 hours.

Dora spent almost 12 hours in this area and barely weakened before landfall.

[Blown Away]

Based on my analysis, which confirmed some of what I knew before, these place have the lowest statistical chances of getting hit by a major hurricane as no major hurricane has hit these areas since 1900.

- The Treasure Coast and East Coast of FL from just north of W. Palm Beach up to Jacksonville (Jeanne and Frances were not major).
- The Big Bend of FL from just north of Cedar Key to just East of the FL panhandle

These places have the highest statistical chances:

- The Panhandle of FL including Ft. Walton, Panama City, and Pensacola.
- South FL from West Palm Beach south through the FL Keys
- SW FL from the SW tip of FL north to about Sarasota

These places have been hit by a major before but does not happen frequently:

- The Suncoast and Nature Coast of FL from just north of Sarasota to Cedary Key

Since late 1800's only 3 majors have passed between West Palm Beach and Miami. Most majors seem to pass between West Palm Beach and Ft. Pierce and Miami and Keys. WPB through Miami seems to be a good spot to avoid a direct hit! BTW, Wilma's path not shown, she passed just north of WPB!

[Scorpion]

Seems the Jupiter area is quite a hotspot

[alicia-w]

These places have the highest statistical chances:

- The Panhandle of FL including Ft. Walton, Panama City, and Pensacola.

SHHHHHHHH