Will FL panhandle be hit by a major hurricane?

Opal storm · #1 Postby **Opal storm** » Sun Mar 19, 2006 10:45 am

Do you think a major hurricane will make landfall anywhere from Pensacola to Apalachicola this season?

A couple of months ago I was thinking no way.But with the warmer than normal SST's in the Gulf and the possibility of a strong Bermuda High this season,I'm starting to think we will see another major hurricane this year.

"Ice" · #2 Postby **"Ice"** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 3:54 am

Opal storm wrote:Do you think a major hurricane will make landfall anywhere from Pensacola to Apalachicola this season?

A couple of months ago I was thinking no way.But with the warmer than normal SST's in the Gulf and the possibility of a strong Bermuda High this season,I'm starting to think we will see another major hurricane this year.

beachbum_al · #3 Postby **beachbum_al** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:47 am

I am saying yes because I give it a 50/50 chance.

ZZ3Astro · #4 Postby **ZZ3Astro** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 10:19 am

All I can say is my area (panama city) has not been hit by anything in many years. Everyone in PC uses Opal as a reference to their safety regarding both winds and surge!!

Opal hit 90 miles west of here, barely hanging on as a cat 3. Our local surge was the eight feet at the coast. Of course beach areas received ten foot waves on top of that, but let's revisit the surge. On the back bay areas, entire neighborhoods were flooded with five-six feet of water.

Locally, Opal's winds were only 65mph and gusts below 90 mph. I'm not saying 65 won't do damage, but people are using this as a benchmark for safety against *any* hurricane we might get!

I'm currently trying to find a house. I'm looking for something at least two miles inland and at least 25 feet asl, preferrably 30+. My friends think I'm nuts. I have a whole list of preferences - hip roof, 1998+ building codes (preferabbly 2001+), north or west facing garage doors and room to build a safe room into a walk in closet or similar.

The response I always get: "Well, Opal didn't flood us and we didn't get any wind damage so our house/location is safe!"

Panama City's day is coming and I don't want to be in this current house when it arrives. I feel bad for the people I know because with their attitude, they'll be waiting for those storms in their low lying homes.

Steve

#5 Postby **Steve** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 10:49 am

I would suspect it will. I think the North Gulf is going to get plastered again this year, but it's still too early to tell. Watch the SSTA reversals in April and May. We'll see how much things heat up and what the corresponding changes indicate. As best as I can tell from the winter, the old bastardi Trof means show trofs fairly far west this year (again). That could correlate into fairly far western tracks if that teleconnection holds. We shall see (but even still, somebody's gonna pay).

Steve

#6 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 11:04 am

Steve wrote:I would suspect it will. I think the North Gulf is going to get plastered again this year, but it's still too early to tell. Watch the SSTA reversals in April and May. We'll see how much things heat up and what the corresponding changes indicate. As best as I can tell from the winter, the old bastardi Trof means show trofs fairly far west this year (again). That could correlate into fairly far western tracks if that teleconnection holds. We shall see (but even still, somebody's gonna pay).

Steve

agreed steve someone in the gulf is going to pay if a storm gets into the gulf this year. I hope that we have a few freak cold fronts come through but, I don't think that it is going to happen.

FlSteel · #7 Postby **FlSteel** » Tue Mar 21, 2006 9:52 am

I can't help but vote yes. All things considered with the bermuda high already dug in over florida, I would have to consider the fact that the northern gulf coast is primed for another major hit. I pray otherwise and hope for a bunch of fishes but better to be prepared for it

#8 Postby **EDR1222** » Tue Mar 21, 2006 12:40 pm

I would definately say yes during any year that is expected to be active.

That area deserves a break.

#9 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Mar 22, 2006 2:32 pm

God I hope not!

StormScanWx · #10 Postby **StormScanWx** » Wed Mar 22, 2006 10:58 pm

I hope not, especially not an Ivan repeat! :eek:

ZZ3Astro · #11 Postby **ZZ3Astro** » Wed Apr 05, 2006 10:50 pm

Since I last posted, we were able to find a house located five miles inland from any bays and at 34' asl. We're under contract and should be in it next month. Our current house is at 6' asl and 1000 feet from the bay. It sold for above asking in less than six hours of being listed. Am I the only person concerned about a surge before it actually happens?

After 05, I figured everyone would be much more aware of flood risks. I was wrong! Hopefully I'm wrong on this surge potential too. I'm sure it's impossible to get a 10' surge into the bays around Panama City. :wink:

Steve

#12 Postby **MGC** » Wed Apr 05, 2006 11:38 pm

Why are you sure it is impossible to get 10 feet surge into the bay at Panama City? Ivan caused a considerable surge in Pencacola Bay....MGC

ZZ3Astro · #13 Postby **ZZ3Astro** » Wed Apr 05, 2006 11:46 pm

I was saying that in jest MGC.. Believe me, I wouldn't have just doubled my housing cost if I thought it couldn't happen. After seeing the I10 bridge after Ivan I started planning this move.

Steve

CHRISTY · #14 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Apr 05, 2006 11:54 pm

i say its 50/50 that it will happen...

#15 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 1:01 am

no it's not there year....we will see a very strong Bermuda High this year and South Florida will be the target......

not this year FL Panhandle....

#16 Postby **TSmith274** » Thu Apr 06, 2006 2:01 am

Steve wrote:I would suspect it will. I think the North Gulf is going to get plastered again this year, but it's still too early to tell. Watch the SSTA reversals in April and May. We'll see how much things heat up and what the corresponding changes indicate. As best as I can tell from the winter, the old bastardi Trof means show trofs fairly far west this year (again). That could correlate into fairly far western tracks if that teleconnection holds. We shall see (but even still, somebody's gonna pay).

Steve

Good point Steve. I sure hope that's wrong for obvious reasons. Really no way to accurately predict it.

Dustin · #17 Postby **Dustin** » Sat Apr 08, 2006 9:07 pm

I would say no actually. With a strong bermuda high over the southeast forecasted for this summer, and early fall, this high would either steer these storms, to texas or the western LA, coast, or maybe some east cost hits this year, but that is just my 2 cents, on this issue,.

HurricaneHunter914 · #18 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Apr 08, 2006 10:35 pm

Ivan, Dennis, and a little bit of Katrina devestated this area, I'm sure this wiil get its storm this year too.

Audrey2Katrina · #19 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sat Apr 08, 2006 11:32 pm

Anything is possible (obviously); but I'm gonna say NO. I think it's time for more EC hits, and the Gulf area that will take most hits will be from Mexico, up through Texas to the western La. areas. (God I hope not, for those poor Rita victims; but just my thoughts). For Obvious reasons I will be making many novenas that SE La. is spared anything this year.

A2K

meteorologyman · #20 Postby **meteorologyman** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 10:34 am

You guys talk a lot about the panhandle and the south what do you guys think the chances are for cental state I live 45 min away of south Orlando

Will FL panhandle be hit by a major hurricane?

Will the FL panhandle be hit by a major hurricane this season?

Will FL panhandle be hit by a major hurricane?

Re: Will FL panhandle be hit by a major hurricane?

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