cat 4 or 5 question

[windycity]

The way i see it ,the last two years in Fl. have given us a pretty good idea what hurricanes can do. We lost power for weeks and its not fun ,but a part of living here.

[Scorpion]

The way i see it ,the last two years in Fl. have given us a pretty good idea what hurricanes can do. We lost power for weeks and its not fun ,but a part of living here.

What hurricanes we got are jokes compared to what a Cat 3/4/5 would do.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

If you lived through Wilma and Frances, then you've lived through the worst of what will probably happen to you 30+ miles inland. Unless you live in a mobile home or you get exceptionally bad luck like Arcadia during Charley, you're better off keeping the highways clear for those who really NEED to evacuate.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The way i see it ,the last two years in Fl. have given us a pretty good idea what hurricanes can do. We lost power for weeks and its not fun ,but a part of living here.

What hurricanes we got are jokes compared to what a Cat 3/4/5 would do.

You can not forget about Charley though which was a Cat. 4 (almost a 5) at landfall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If you lived through Wilma and Frances, then you've lived through the worst of what will probably happen to you 30+ miles inland. Unless you live in a mobile home or you get exceptionally bad luck like Arcadia during Charley, you're better off keeping the highways clear for those who really NEED to evacuate.

I bet it could get worse than what was seen from Wilma in Miami (Cat. 1) and Frances along the east coast (Cat. 1/2) 30+ miles inland. If a strong Cat. 5 were to make landfall and be moving at high speeds, then it could easily still be a Cat. 3+ once 30+ miles inland. Arcadia, like you mentioned, was 30 miles or so inland and still saw Cat. 2/3 force winds from Charley (only a Cat. 4)...and Orlando was even further inland and still saw Cat. 1/2 force.


^^Arcadia, FL after hurricane Charley^^

EDIT: Here is a great summary of what Arcadia saw from Charley (from the NWS):

Arcadia…
Hurricane Charley's eye moved just west of Arcadia. Most of the town suffered some degree of damage as the hurricane moved through. The civic center, which was acting as a shelter for over 1200 people, sustained major damage and only a few people suffered minor injuries. One fire tower was blown down, one water tower was blown down, one radio tower was damaged, numerous structures were destroyed, and numerous structures had significant roof damage. Several manufactured home communities suffered severe damage. Several RV parks and mobile home communities also were heavily damaged or destroyed. Numerous trees and power lines were blown down around the area. The heaviest damage occurred just west of US 17. Better built structures survived in many cases with only minor roof damage. Winds appeared to have decreased slightly in Arcadia but were still indicative of Category 3 from 110 to 120 miles an hour. The most significant damage appeared to be from the northern portion of the eyewall region because the damage indicated an easterly wind direction.

Also...visit this site: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/html/tbw/hu ... mmary2.htm if you are interested in seeing how other cities across FL were affected during Charley. **This will give you a good idea of what to expect at your distance from the coast were a small Cat. 4 storm (moving at 20-25mph) to affect you.**

[Scorpion]

Looks like low-end Cat 3(100-105 kt)winds in Arcadia.

[gatorcane]

If you lived through Wilma and Frances, then you've lived through the worst of what will probably happen to you 30+ miles inland. Unless you live in a mobile home or you get exceptionally bad luck like Arcadia during Charley, you're better off keeping the highways clear for those who really NEED to evacuate.

No I don't agree with you. It could get alot worse inland than Frances or Wilma which were both CAT 1-2 winds tops inland. This is such a misconception that so many people have. Frances and Wilma WERE NOT MAJOR hurricanes. A large CAT 4 or CAT 5 (like Mitch, Hugo, Katrina, etc) moving at a decent clip through the FL peninsula would be horrific.

Expect CAT 3 winds well inland over the flat, marshy Southern 1/3 of the peninsula and at least CAT 2 winds inland in central FL.

[Scorpion]

Frances barely had Cat 1 winds a few miles inland. I cannot imagine a hurricane like Hugo for Florida. Cat 3 sustained winds easily 75 miles inland in such a case.

[gatorcane]

Frances barely had Cat 1 winds a few miles inland. Wilma was Cat 2. I cannot imagine a hurricane like Hugo except for Florida. Cat 3 sustained winds easily 75 miles inland in such a case

Yep it still hasn't happened yet, the worst case scenario are though many Floridians are thinking it can't get much worse than 2004-2005.

It can. For example, give Katrina about 24 more hours over that Gulf Stream and she would have been CAT 3 easily. How about Andrew moving right through Miami/Ft.Lauderdale?

[Derek Ortt]

the momentum equations dictate that due to the increased friction over land, that major hurricane force winds are not very likely. Couple this with the fact that a hurricane rapidly weakens over land, indicates that areas 30 miles inland likely will never see anything more than marginal 3 conditions (assuming a powerful 5 at landfall), unless we have a QG enhanced storm that is not being sheared apart, and moving at 40 mph or greater (something like an Allison set-up when it intensified while over E Louisiana and Mississippi

[gatorcane]

the momentum equations dictate that due to the increased friction over land, that major hurricane force winds are not very likely. Couple this with the fact that a hurricane rapidly weakens over land, indicates that areas 30 miles inland likely will never see anything more than marginal 3 conditions (assuming a powerful 5 at landfall), unless we have a QG enhanced storm that is not being sheared apart, and moving at 40 mph or greater (something like an Allison set-up when it intensified while over E Louisiana and Mississippi

Good points but how do reconcile Katrina that looked to be getting better organized as it crossed the Everglades? What about the Tornado threat that typically occurs well inland? I contend that the friction over South Florida is not compenstated for accurately by momentum equations. There should be some factor in this equation similar to the coefficient of friction in the work-momentum theories where W=(mu)x or the spring elasticity equation that has a spring constant K given by F=-kx.

[NCHurricane]

You would need to consider the following things:

-How long can you go without power?
-How long can you go without water?
-Do you have large trees around your home?
-Was your home properly built?

Add to that:

-"If things start to go bad in a hurry, how close is the nearest shelter and can I make it; should I try?"
-"Can I go without emergency services during the storm?"

After Isabel, my parents had no power for almost two weeks. They are a good 90 miles inland and Isabel was barely a 1 when she crossed over their location.

[Derek Ortt]

well, Katrina weakened to a TS over the Glades (though a strong one). This was probably due o friction alone as I agree, it was gettng better organized

[Bocadude85]

ok so maybe it is fairly difficult for sustained major hurricane force winds to go 30+ miles inland but sustained cat 1 or 2 winds with frequesnt gusts in excess of 115mph is still going to cause a lot of damage. just look at homstead in andrew.

[gatorcane]

well, Katrina weakened to a TS over the Glades (though a strong one). This was probably due o friction alone as I agree, it was gettng better organized

That is interesting you say that. Why/how was it getting better organized over land? That was amazing.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yep it still hasn't happened yet, the worst case scenario are though many Floridians are thinking it can't get much worse than 2004-2005.

It can. For example, give Katrina about 24 more hours over that Gulf Stream and she would have been CAT 3 easily. How about Andrew moving right through Miami/Ft.Lauderdale?

And Wilma, if she moved alot slower before landfall she could been a low-end cat-4 and with slow movement cause greater damage.

[Dionne]

We rode out Katrina. We never expected it to come so far inland. Both of our homes and business location were damaged by winds, falling trees and airborne projectiles. Our Hattiesburg home, nearly 70 miles inland got slammed.

We discovered very quickly that you cannot evacuate during the storm. We had both stayed home.....figured we'd BBQ and watch the storm on TV. When the first significant outer band hit us, we knew that we had misjudged Katrina.

In the event another monster storm arrives in the northern GOM.......we'll be in a hotel in Memphis.

[windycity]

Experiencing a hurricane, is like riding a really scary ride at Disney ,except it lasts for hours instead of minutes. The first time is the scariest ,the next time isnt as bad. Of couse we havent experienced a major here,which is why we will be going inland abit if that were to happen. Of course, i would be tracking the storm for days, so we all have a pretty good feel about the hurricane,and prepare for one cat. higher.

[Scorpion]

Didn't Wilma not actually weaken over Florida, but just the friction lowered the surface winds? Because the winds in Wilma went right back up when she hit the Atlantic.

[f5]

Didn't Wilma not actually weaken over Florida, but just the friction lowered the surface winds? Because the winds in Wilma went right back up when she hit the Atlantic.

Wilma rode the Gulf Stream