Good Idea Louisiana trying to combine Hurricane forecast

[tailgater]

Scientists pitch regional hurricane center

By JESSICA FENDER
Capitol News Bureau
Published: Apr 4, 2006


NEW ORLEANS — University scientists on Monday began planning a regional hurricane research center that would pull together the best minds and best computers from across the state and country.

The goal: earlier and more accurate computer models that forecast a hurricane’s path and effects once it makes landfall.

By working together as a center, researchers from different institutions can better compete for federal grants than if they worked alone. And if the enterprise succeeds in developing better models, it could save the state millions of dollars by reducing the number of false evacuations, according to Ed Seidel, director LSU’s Center for Computation and Technology.

“We can develop world-leading programs in these areas. This is especially important in coastal modeling," Seidel said at a forum on the role higher education will play in the state’s future.

The researchers — whose expertise lies in collecting, compiling and analyzing information using computers — plan to use the $40 million high-speed Internet network called the Louisiana Optical Network Initiative, now under construction.

Right now researchers produce several different models: one tracking the storms, one predicting where water from the storm surge will flow, another mapping wind currents and another detailing transportation patterns.

But scientists can’t yet combine them in one all-encompassing package. Generating a computer model is like completing a connect-the-dots puzzle. The more dots — or bits of data — that a puzzler has, the clearer the overall picture.

The state fiber-optic cable and the super computers attached to it will allow scientists to collect and combine more information and interpret it at a speed well beyond any one institution’s current capacity, about a thousand times faster, Seidel said.

The center will also look at ways these forecasts can be used to shape evacuation plans, predict hazards, such as, oil spills, and determine how to protect important information like electronic medical records.

Beyond short-term hurricane prediction, Seidel said, he envisions a center that generates models of Louisiana’s wetlands to help predict which restoration methods will work.

But for the center to jell, researchers must be convinced to share their data with other scientists who may be competing for the same kinds of grants. Seidel said, the center would also have to branch out beyond Louisiana’s borders to be successful. A nationwide version of LONI will connect several key research institutions across the country.

“We don’t have a lot of people who have been developing these kinds of big models," Seidel said. “Because the state has not invested in (information technology) in the past, we need some national collaborators."


Sounds like something that could help alot with evacuations.

[terstorm1012]

Hmm...are they hiring?

Although...my field is geography...not sure if I'd be much use.

[Coredesat]

Regional hurricane centers are a pretty good idea. They could coordinate their activities with the NHC, and hopefully provide for more efficient regional plans and forecasts in the event of an impending tropical cyclone landfall.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think this is going to open up a lot of opportunities by colaborating forcast models and then making better models. This sounds like an awesome idea and it should open up more employment opportunities for people in the field. If properly cooordinated with the national hurricane center and local nws facilities this could greatly reduce death and injuries and allow people to evacuate easier. These new centers could allow for better coordination with local emergency managment also.

Team Rgnarok I like idea of regional hurricane centers also. This would allow the regional headquarters to be more focused on individual areas they are assigned to and allow better communication with local authorities and tv stations to send out warnings in the counties that will be affected by the incoming tropical cyclone.

This is good news

[tailgater]

I think it would be great if they could prevent 1 mass evacuation of a major Metro area; ie Houston for Rita, New Orleans for Ivan and so on.

A lot of responsibility for those folks, I'm glad I don't have to make the call. I have trouble telling friends and family where they will go and what we should expect in strength wise.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Would this be a branch of the NHC in Miami, or a competitor? The last thing we need when a major hurricane is approaching land is conflicting information. That said, the NHC does need to establish a backup operations center. Imagine if Katrina had been stronger than Cat1 when her eye passed over the NHC last year and took out all their equipment. We would have been blindsided when Katrina hit the Gulf Coast a few days later.

[MGC]

There is a back up for the NHC. It is located in Maryland. In the event the facility in Miami is rendered inoperative, the backup in Maryland would take over the forecasting duties. Back in the old days, there were several centers that had the responsibility for hurricane forecasts. Besides Maimi, there was one in New Orleans that handled the central and western GOM and if memeory serves me, one in San Juan PR for that region.......MGC

[wxman57]

Regional hurricane centers are a pretty good idea. They could coordinate their activities with the NHC, and hopefully provide for more efficient regional plans and forecasts in the event of an impending tropical cyclone landfall.

The article says nothing about creating regional "hurricane centers" that coordinate with the NHC. It appears to be about bringing the various hurricane researchers together into one research center instead of multiple research groups working separately with separate funding.

[LSU_Weatherguy]

Regional hurricane centers are a pretty good idea. They could coordinate their activities with the NHC, and hopefully provide for more efficient regional plans and forecasts in the event of an impending tropical cyclone landfall.

The article says nothing about creating regional "hurricane centers" that coordinate with the NHC. It appears to be about bringing the various hurricane researchers together into one research center instead of multiple research groups working separately with separate funding.

That is correct it will bring reacher's together such as the ones that are at LSU Hurricane center now....they do not predict paths they gather information and then pass it on to NHC who in turn uses it to predict the paths. This is a good idea cause right now different reacher's compete for same money and this would pile all the money together.