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Don't touch that button!!!
Dec, 04: 11 - 6 - 3
Apr, 05: 13 - 7 - 3
Jun, 05: 15 - 8 - 4
yep looks real active this season!Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:Don't touch that button!!!
Dec, 04: 11 - 6 - 3
Apr, 05: 13 - 7 - 3
Jun, 05: 15 - 8 - 4
Whoa that's really weird each number of storms goes up by 2 and the hurricanes numbers go up by 1 and look at his new forecast:17-9-5 the hurricanes section is one higher from last years and the storms section is 2 higher than last years.
Derecho wrote:Most interesting part of the whole thing (given that the forecast is identical to December) is buried towards the end; will be interesting if they directly contradict AccuBlunder:7.2 Forthcoming Revised Landfall Prediction Scheme
We have recently been investigating the potential predictability of steering current patterns likely to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. No individual or group can accurately predict exactly where or when a particular storm will make landfall months in advance; however, we have found that using a combination of our NTC forecast and several April-May steering current predictors, we can improve our landfall probability scheme considerably. We are currently working on documentation of this revised landfall prediction scheme, and it will debut with our 31 May update of the 2006 hurricane forecast.
MIAMI, Florida (Reuters) -- The 2006 hurricane season will not be as ferocious as last year when Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, but will still be unusually busy, a noted forecasting team said Tuesday.
The Colorado State University team led by Dr. William Gray, a pioneer in forecasting storm probabilities, said it expected 17 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin during the six-month season starting in June.
Nine of the storms will likely strengthen into hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 mph, the team said, reaffirming their early prediction in December.
The forecasters said five of the hurricanes were likely to be major storms, reaching at least Category 3 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity, and boasting winds of at least 111 mph.
But they also said there was less chance of major storms making landfall in the United States compared with 2005's record-breaking hurricane season.
"Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006-2007 hurricane season, or the seasons that follow, will have the number of major hurricane U.S. landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005," Gray said in a statement.
Last season -- at $80 billion the costliest on record in terms of damage -- saw 27 named storms, of which 15 developed into hurricanes.
In addition to Katrina, Hurricane Rita hammered Texas and Hurricane Wilma briefly became the most intense Atlantic hurricane ever observed before slamming into the Mexican resort of Cancun. Wilma then curved back over South Florida, where it wreaked $10 billion worth of damage.
The long-term statistical average is for about 10 named storms per season, of which six become hurricanes.
Copyright 2006 Reuters. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
OuterBanker wrote:One of the changes they made was for the analog years. Dec forcast used 61, 67, 96, 99, 03. In Apr forecast he dropped 61 and 67 and went with 64, 96, 99, 03. Didn't improve the outlook for NC though. All years included at least one NC landfall, darnl.
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