Phil Klotzbach/ William Gray April Forecast=17/9/5

[CHRISTY]

WERE ARE YOU MR BILL GRAY!!!!!!! GIVE ME THAT FORCAST!

[HURAKAN]

forecast is out, no change whatsoever.

17 TS, 9 H, 5 MH

[Brent]

WERE ARE YOU MR BILL GRAY!!!!!!! GIVE ME THAT FORCAST!

[HURAKAN]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... april2006/

[SouthFloridawx]

WERE ARE YOU MR BILL GRAY!!!!!!! GIVE ME THAT FORCAST!

ROFLMAO!!!!

[CHRISTY]

ok so basically the thinking is the same from mr gray and he also says he still see's a very active season in 2006.

[CHRISTY]

a paragraph from his update....

ABSTRACT



Information obtained through March 2006 continues to indicate that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term average. This early April forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past global reanalysis data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We have maintained our forecast from our early December prediction as the Atlantic Ocean, although cooling slightly with respect to climatology, remains anomalously warm and central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures anomalies have continued to cool. Currently, weak La Niña conditions are observed. We expect either neutral or weak La Niña conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season.

[Derecho]

Most interesting part of the whole thing (given that the forecast is identical to December) is buried towards the end; will be interesting if they directly contradict AccuBlunder:

7.2 Forthcoming Revised Landfall Prediction Scheme



We have recently been investigating the potential predictability of steering current patterns likely to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. No individual or group can accurately predict exactly where or when a particular storm will make landfall months in advance; however, we have found that using a combination of our NTC forecast and several April-May steering current predictors, we can improve our landfall probability scheme considerably. We are currently working on documentation of this revised landfall prediction scheme, and it will debut with our 31 May update of the 2006 hurricane forecast.

[SouthFloridawx]

WERE ARE YOU MR BILL GRAY!!!!!!! GIVE ME THAT FORCAST!

This should be nominated for "Post of the Year".

[P.K.]

Just a quick warning about today's TSR update. The page was working earlier this morning but I can't load it up anymore. Probably be fixed before any of you wake up though,

[cycloneye]

Just a quick warning about today's TSR update. The page was working earlier this morning but I can't load it up anymore. Probably be fixed before any of you wake up though,

Peter,link is working now but the april forecast is not there yet.

About what the Colorado State University folks said in the April outlook,the bottomline is to be prepared for another active season although not as active as the 2005 one.Simple message here is to be prepared for the worse but hope for the best.

drezee I edited the title of thread to include the numbers.

[weatherwoman132]

what were his predictions for last year? (both of them)

[CHRISTY]

i really respect mr gray for his preditions...but they are still only predictions i still think we should still prepare for a season just as bad as 05, so lets hope for the best!

[windycity]

I was right! No change in forecast.

[HURAKAN]

what were his predictions for last year? (both of them)

Don't touch that button!!!

Dec, 04: 11 - 6 - 3

Apr, 05: 13 - 7 - 3

Jun, 05: 15 - 8 - 4

[CHRISTY]

you know what for the past couple of seasons mr gray has been bit short on his numbers!we all know what happened last year,so iam gonna say this year will be a similar situation.the fact is nobody knows what this season might bring so we have to be ready...after the past 2 seasons it would not surprise me to see another year similar to 04 or maybe 05.

[SouthFloridawx]

what were his predictions for last year? (both of them)

Don't touch that button!!!

Dec, 04: 11 - 6 - 3

Apr, 05: 13 - 7 - 3

Jun, 05: 15 - 8 - 4

13/7/3

Well that's a far cry from 17/9/5 don't you think?

Is he going out on a limb because of the amount of storms last year and they think they can cover. Or are the conditions that favorable that he can make that prediction and think that it will cover. Is this the highest number's ever out? It would seem to me that I think it is but, I don't have a chart I can look at to see what past predictions were. But, this is what I'm thinking... Last year was 13/7/3 and this years predictions 17-9-5, that's kind of crazy high guys. Everyone better get ready and also I noticed that the east coast of the us has a 64% chance and the gulf has a 47% chance of getting hit by a storm. Those are really interesting numbers because they are pretty high. I guess when the prediciton numbers are high the percentages are going to be higher.

[weatherwoman132]

I'm hoping for the best.

[KWT]

I suspect SouthFloridawx rather then over-doing the numbers, they tend to under-did the active seasons in the past, so I suspect they are now being a little more bold with thier numbers simply to reflective the increase in hurricane numbers over recent years.

[CHRISTY]

I suspect SouthFloridawx rather then over-doing the numbers, they tend to under-did the active seasons in the past, so I suspect they are now being a little more bold with thier numbers simply to reflective the increase in hurricane numbers over recent years.

yes thats exactly what iam saying for all we know we may end up with a season just as bad as 05 or maybe worse.thow i dont expect to have that many systems forming like we had in 2005.