2006 Season has arrived!!

[cycloneye]

The numbers will change at 7:00 PM EST to coincide with 00:00z time.After the 2nd of April which is the start of daylight savings time the change will be at 8:00 PM EDT.

Countdown Ticker below with days,hours,minutes and seconds.



http://www.timeanddate.com/counters/cus ... &min=&sec=

Important dates prior to June 1:

1-March 15=Official Storm2k forecast Numbers Poll will start. *

2- March 17=ST Patrick's Day. *

3- March 20=Official Start of Spring (Vernal Equinox) at 1:26 PM EST. *

4-March 20-24=Hurricane Conference,Mobile,Alabama **

5-March 30-April 4=WMO Region IV Hurricane Committee,28th session,San Juan,P.R. **

6- April 2=Daylight Savings Time begins. *

7-April 4=Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr William Gray April 2006 outlook. *

8-April 10-14=Hurricane Conference,Orlando,Fla.

9- April 16= Easter.

10- April 22=Earth Day.

11-April 24-28=27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology,Monterey,California.

12-May 14=Mothers Day.

13- May 15= EPAC hurricane season starts.

14-May 21-27=Hurricane Preparedeness Week.

15-May 22=NOAA'S 2006 Hurricane Season Outlook.

16- May 29=Memorial Day.

17- May 31=Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr William Gray hours before 2006 season starts outlook.

* Date has passed.
** Dates haved passed.

[MiamiensisWx]

Just ignore that last post. I was looking at the wrong page... I thought I had mentioned that before...

In other news... I would watch to see if the tradewinds return in the tropical Atlantic. they have been very weak for some time and with all that junk near and n of puerto rico.. only going to weaken the bermuda/azores high. the march averages were quite favorable for an active hurricane season.

How does that weaken ridging? Any thoughts from you?

[benny]

Basically what is happening is that the trough is sitting where the subtropical high should be throughout the region. The high that would be pushing 15-20 kt trades is now well to the n. Instead of the pressure gradient being strong from north to south, the trough offers a break in the ridge where trades actually increase north of the trough (with the pressure gradient tightening a bit due to the shorter distance from the trough to the high) and weaken to the south. Because of the break in the pressure gradient and the weaker gradient from north to south from the itcz to the tropical atlc, those trades are 5 or so knots less than average. There would be less evaporation/upwelling of the ocean and the SSTs should warm pretty consistently.

[MiamiensisWx]

Do you think that pattern may end or switch, benny?

[cycloneye]

59 days
1439 hours
86391 minutes
5183519 seconds

Alternative version
It is 59 days, 23 hours, 51 minutes and 59 seconds until Thursday, June 1, 2006


Less than two months away from the start of the 2006 season.

[benny]

I have no idea whether the pattern will end or switch. As long as the weakened trades persist.. the Atlantic will continue to warm. I imagine that as the next MJO organizes in the Pacific, it will probably strengthen the trades again in a week or two. But ... ??? no good data to base that on.. just a feeling. as far as this week.. it looks like the weakened trades will persist. i wouldn't be too surprised to see 0.5C anomalies cover most/all of the region by next Monday especially w of 30w.

[CHRISTY]

under 2 months wow time has flown by!!!!

[cycloneye]

58 days
1415 hours
84956 minutes
5097395 seconds

Alternative version
It is 58 days, 23 hours, 56 minutes and 35 seconds until Thursday, June 1, 2006

[windycity]

now, thats detailed, cycloneye!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

Time until Thursday, June 1, 2006 (UTC time)
58 days
1397 hours
83868 minutes
5032125 seconds

Alternative version
It is 58 days, 5 hours, 48 minutes and 45 seconds until Thursday, June 1, 2006 (UTC time)

Current time is
2006-04-03 18:11:15 UTC



Dun Dun Dun!!!!!!!!! (drums)

[HURRICANELONNY]

You know the season getting close when Dr Grey comes out with his forecast tomorrow. Tomorrow and May 31 to me are the 2 most important forecasts. I think it will show how this season will be with all the data coming in by the end of May.

[cycloneye]

57 days
1391 hours
83516 minutes
5010971 seconds

Alternative version
It is 57 days, 23 hours, 56 minutes and 11 seconds until Thursday, June 1, 2006

[windycity]

Let the count down, begin!! I will be happy to get the show on the road, and see what this season brings us!!

[gatorcane]

I am happy but am also anxious...with possible La Nina conditions this summer....let's hope they are fish!

[tdrive]

You know the season getting close when Dr Grey comes out with his forecast tomorrow. Tomorrow and May 31 to me are the 2 most important forecasts. I think it will show how this season will be with all the data coming in by the end of May.

It is already out:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... april2006/

Cheers,

[CHRISTY]

still forcasting an active season..how active is anyones guess!

[CHRISTY]

bring 06 ON!!!

[alicia-w]

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/04/04/h ... index.html

"The Colorado State University team led by Dr. William Gray, a pioneer in forecasting storm probabilities, said it expected 17 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin during the six-month season starting in June.

Nine of the storms will likely strengthen into hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 mph, the team said, reaffirming their early prediction in December.

The forecasters said five of the hurricanes were likely to be major storms, reaching at least Category 3 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity, and boasting winds of at least 111 mph."

[cycloneye]

56 days
1367 hours
82079 minutes
4924765 seconds

Alternative version
It is 56 days, 23 hours, 59 minutes and 25 seconds until Thursday, June 1, 2006

[RattleMan]

EPAC:

39 days
959 hours
57585 minutes
3455151 seconds

Alternative version
It is 39 days, 23 hours, 45 minutes and 51 seconds until Monday, May 15, 2006 (UTC time)