cat 4 or 5 question

[jdray]

Storm surge won't be as much of a problem on the east coast of Florida. Even a Cat 4-5 won't produce a surge over about 10 feet. This is due to the very deep water just offshore. So 20-25 miles inland you'll be quite safe from any storm surge. Winds are another issue. A hurricane's winds will drop about 1 category or a little more in that distance inland.

This is true with central to south florida. NE Florida is another whole different type of coastline.

Dora in 1964 produced a 9 foot surge @ Mayport as a Cat2/3
Downtown Jax (due to the way the topology is with the St Johns River) had a 5-6 foot surge some 20 miles inland.

Doctor's Lake in Clay County has a Cat 1 evac due to the St Johns River.
My backyard even though Im 40 miles inland has a inclination to flood due to parts of the Black Creek trbiutaries and is listed as a Cat 3 evac zone.


Please dont confuse East Coast of Florida as one entire same geographic structure.

[gtalum]

It all depends on elevation. Personally I live in Sarasota, on the Sarasota/Mantee County line about 4 miles inland from Sarasota Bay. I'm at ~35 feet of elevation in a well-built post-Andrew concrete home. I'll stay for just about anything. When people who shouldn't evacuate do, they cause problems for those who really need to.

[Scorpion]

I am wondering, would a Cat 4 or 5 wind put a shuttered CBS home in jeopardy?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am wondering, would a Cat 4 or 5 wind put a shuttered CBS home in jeopardy?

A "true" Cat. 4/5 force wind would put all structures in Jeopardy.

[terstorm1012]

I am wondering, would a Cat 4 or 5 wind put a shuttered CBS home in jeopardy?

CBS?--Concrete Brick Stucco? If that's what CBS is I suppose it would depend on which era it was built in.

Older construction from the 40s, 50s and 60s on average fared much better than newer construction from the building boom eras of the 70s and 80s during Andrew.

With the new building codes I suspect they're better but I've heard horror stories---one guy I know here in town moved up here from Vero Beach---they'd had enough of the hurricanes after 2004. They lost shingles on their home built in 1964 and that was about it...some of their neighbors with newer homes built "up to code" in the 90s and early 00's had extensive water damage because water got in between the concrete blocks and mold grew, making the home unliveable.

If and when I move to Miami, I'm not moving into anything built recently, thats for sure.

[windycity]

Iv wondered the same thing mtself. I do know how important it is not to get the storm into the house, due to a broken window or if you lose your roof. Because of that, we are getting a new metal roof next month. I dont want to take any chances.

[Derek Ortt]

surge will NEVER make it to US 1 in Miami, except near the Brickell area and near the MIA arena

to the south, the surge has to cross about a 20 foot ridge line, and the surge will never be 20 feet, which is why Miami hurricanes are wind events

[windycity]

Thankyou Derek for taking the time to answer our questions. Im hoping people this year are a little wiser and more prepared. Last year was a joke.

[Audrey2Katrina]

While that is quite true, I wouldn't consider a location, say, on the northern tip of Galveston Bay to be 40-50 miles inland. 25 miles inland is 25 miles inland - 25 miles away from ANY source of water, and that includes bays.

EXACTL Y! Which is while I consider my refuge location about 20 miles NORTH of Lake Pontchartrain and nowhere near any bays/rivers (of any consequence) to be quite safe from any surge. Wind is another issue; but as has been pointed out, IF the building is sturdy, and not prone to a tree falling on it, it's a much better option, IMO, than a 25 hour ride to Texas or elsewhere.

A2K

[x-y-no]

I am wondering, would a Cat 4 or 5 wind put a shuttered CBS home in jeopardy?

Yes, quite possibly. Even if the shutters hold, there are other potential points of failure such as doors and roof sheathing and roof gables. Structural integrity is everything - once you've got a breach anywhere you've got trouble. In Andrew, my parents' house (where I spent the storm) fared fine, but several nearby CBS houses had major damage. And this was in the high cat-3 portion of the north eyewall, not the very worst part.

[wxman57]

Storm surge won't be as much of a problem on the east coast of Florida. Even a Cat 4-5 won't produce a surge over about 10 feet. This is due to the very deep water just offshore. So 20-25 miles inland you'll be quite safe from any storm surge. Winds are another issue. A hurricane's winds will drop about 1 category or a little more in that distance inland.

This is true with central to south florida. NE Florida is another whole different type of coastline.

Dora in 1964 produced a 9 foot surge @ Mayport as a Cat2/3
Downtown Jax (due to the way the topology is with the St Johns River) had a 5-6 foot surge some 20 miles inland.

Doctor's Lake in Clay County has a Cat 1 evac due to the St Johns River.
My backyard even though Im 40 miles inland has a inclination to flood due to parts of the Black Creek trbiutaries and is listed as a Cat 3 evac zone.


Please dont confuse East Coast of Florida as one entire same geographic structure.

You are quite correct, NE Florida has some shallower water just offshore so it is more surge-prone. Fortunately, a westward moving major hurricane is exceedingly unlikely in the area of Jacksonville. Here are a few SLOSH graphics for a Cat 3 moving west into the east coast of FL:

Note the 13-14 ft surge into Jacksonville for a Cat 3 moving inland at 15 mph.



Now here's the same hurricane moving inland farther south. Only a 7-9 ft surge:



And here's the SLOSH view for Miami with a Cat 3 moving inland. Note that Fort Lauderdale has only a 4-5 ft surge with a Cat 3:



And finally, Miami with a Cat 5 moving ashore. Up to a 16 ft surge south of Miami, and only 6 ft into FLL. Note that the same Cat 5 would produce a 24 ft surge into Jacksonville:

[JPmia]

and from those maps they create these storm surge maps for each category of storm:

http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/index.htm

you can dowload and view your Florida County's storm surge zones. Miami-Dade's most vulnerable areas are the barrier islands (beaches) and the SW Metro areas. These maps have changed quite dramatically over the last 16 years. During Andrew, Broward, Miami-Dade and I think Palm Beach County evacuated everyone east of I-95. That's a lot of people.

[AL Chili Pepper]

For people living in well built homes, I would stay if I lived inland and away from the flood zones. I'm about as far away from the coast as you kba, and I think hitting the road would be worse than hunkering down and riding it out. It's not that I want to ride out a 4 or 5, I definitely don't. Ivan, Dennis, and Katrina had me worried, but I'd already decided to batten the hatches and roll with the punches.

I've got my fingers crossed for a quiet year along my stretch of the coast.

[JPmia]

I am wondering, would a Cat 4 or 5 wind put a shuttered CBS home in jeopardy?

CBS?--Concrete Brick Stucco? If that's what CBS is I suppose it would depend on which era it was built in.

Older construction from the 40s, 50s and 60s on average fared much better than newer construction from the building boom eras of the 70s and 80s during Andrew.

With the new building codes I suspect they're better but I've heard horror stories---one guy I know here in town moved up here from Vero Beach---they'd had enough of the hurricanes after 2004. They lost shingles on their home built in 1964 and that was about it...some of their neighbors with newer homes built "up to code" in the 90s and early 00's had extensive water damage because water got in between the concrete blocks and mold grew, making the home unliveable.

If and when I move to Miami, I'm not moving into anything built recently, thats for sure.

I don't quite understand why new homes would allow more water into interior walls than older homes. Same materials and construction methods, just stronger windloading. I would most definitely rather live in a home that was built today than in 1950, assuming it was built properly. The latest codes today are far more superior to any era previous in Florida, especially South Florida.

[SouthFloridawx]

For people living in well built homes, I would stay if I lived inland and away from the flood zones. I'm about as far away from the coast as you kba, and I think hitting the road would be worse than hunkering down and riding it out. It's not that I want to ride out a 4 or 5, I definitely don't. Ivan, Dennis, and Katrina had me worried, but I'd already decided to batten the hatches and roll with the punches.

I've got my fingers crossed for a quiet year along my stretch of the coast.

Yeah i was just up in mobile and gulf shores a couple of weekends ago and it sure is beautiful. Alabama is real strict about littering laws and it has helped out quite a bit.

I live in central/southern palm beach county and eventhough being far enough away from storm surge I would not put myself in jeopardy during a 4 and a 5. I have seen what a cat 2 can do around here and do not wish to see what it will be like during a 4 or 5.

[jdray]

Nice maps wxman57....

Ive been reading and researching what I can with regards to storms and damages in this area and those maps help out.

[kba981]

thanks everybody for posting on this topic it concerns me greatly but i think i will stay in the event a cat 4/5 comes along i am not crazy i just think it would be better in the long run to protect the property if needed in which i am sure it will also against theives Tim

[gatorcane]

You are quite correct, NE Florida has some shallower water just offshore so it is more surge-prone. Fortunately, a westward moving major hurricane is exceedingly unlikely in the area of Jacksonville. Here are a few SLOSH graphics for a Cat 3 moving west into the east coast of FL:

Nice graphics but they are theoretical. How do we know that will be the storm surged produce? A CAT 4 or CAT 5 hurricane has not impaced the East Coast of FL from Miami north since 1947 when Boca Raton got hit directly. It would nice to know storm surge estimates from that storm if anybody has them. Thanks.

[MiamiensisWx]

The September 1947 storm produced tides of 11 feet and SEVERE erosion along the entire southeast Florida coast due to it's large size, boca_chris. It also nearly stalled over the Bahamas as a 160MPH Category Five before hitting southeast Florida (Boca Raton) as a 155MPH Category Four.

[gatorcane]

The September 1947 storm produced tides of 11 feet and SEVERE erosion along the entire southeast Florida coast due to it's large size, boca_chris. It also nearly stalled over the Bahamas as a 160MPH Category Five before hitting southeast Florida (Boca Raton) as a 155MPH Category Four.

11 ft? There is far different from the graphics that are shown above, hence my point.