La nina vs Neutral conditions

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6372
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

La nina vs Neutral conditions

#1 Postby boca » Sun Apr 02, 2006 10:52 pm

For increased hurricane activity do you need La Nina conditions or Neutral? Is one condition of less of an evil. I would think having a La Nina season would be worse than neutral conditions.Someone please explain.
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#2 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Apr 02, 2006 10:59 pm

ether one, 2004 and 2005 were neutral, 1998 and 1999 were La Nina years, we're in a sense screwed ether way (compared to El Nino years)
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#3 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Apr 02, 2006 11:06 pm

I've found neutral years worse though, 2003-2005 were all neutral and those are the most active years I've seen, and the strangest.

1998 and 1999 were la nina years, though bad especially for the Carolinas, the Hurricanes weren't nearly as destructive as the 2004-2005 storms, (the costliest in 1998-1999 was Floyds $4.5 Billion compared to Katrinas $75 Billion)

however the other determining factor is the Bermuda High, which helped turn alot of storms out to sea from 1995-2003, however in the last 2 years its been positioned in the right spot to run storms into Florida (espcially in 2004) Last year the storms formed far enough to the west that for the most part that it didnt matter.

SST's also killed us last year, the gulf and western Cribbiean were hot springs, hence what happened with Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

I find La Nina years to be active Cape Verde Seasons, hopefully if this plays out the Bermuda high shifts to the east and turns storms out to sea.
0 likes   

User avatar
weatherwoman132
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 305
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 7:26 pm

#4 Postby weatherwoman132 » Mon Apr 03, 2006 5:48 am

what do you predict this one will be?
0 likes   

CHRISTY

#5 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Apr 03, 2006 6:28 am

i believe for the first part of the season we will have la nina conditions,then threw late august and the heart of the season we may fall into neutral conditions!which is just as bad!i think season will be really bad!for now its just a wait and see situation! :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

#6 Postby Steve » Mon Apr 03, 2006 9:25 am

La Neutral bites the big one. La Nina means drought for me (apparently the metro is -20" last 6 months) and also bites the big one.

Steve
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Apr 03, 2006 12:25 pm

it was la nina-like in late October last year; thus, we saw 2 major hurricanes in the W Carib. Late season major hurricanes in the WC are very typical of a la nina year
0 likes   

User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

#8 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Apr 03, 2006 12:36 pm

Steve wrote:La Neutral...
Steve


Haha... La Neutral. That's the first time I've heard that one.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

#9 Postby Steve » Mon Apr 03, 2006 2:31 pm

>>Haha... La Neutral. That's the first time I've heard that one.

LMAO. It's eitehr La Neutral or El Neutral depending on which way you go. Happening to prefer women myself, I used the La. ;)

Steve
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 56 guests