cat 4 or 5 question

[Jim Cantore]

Look at what Katrina did to Hattesburg, And Hugo in Charlotte, Charley in Orlando, Opal in Atlanta, Fran in Ralegh. Extensive damage can go MUCH farther inland then 20-25 miles

[Audrey2Katrina]

Look at what Katrina did to Hattesburg, And Hugo in Charlotte, Charley in Orlando, Opal in Atlanta, Fran in Ralegh. Extensive damage can go MUCH farther inland then 20-25 miles

That's a valid point if what you are primarily concerned about is the potential for damage. On the other hand, if risk to life is concerned, I'd hazard a guess that well over 90-95% of ALL the deaths to those storms came within that first 20-30 miles from landfall. I KNOW it was 99.9% of all Katrina's victims.

The point about water, food, and power, is also quite a good one. You should definitely have a stock supply of essential foodstuffs, canned goods, even MRI's which can be purchased on the internet if you haven't already got some from hurricanes past! I'd keep at least 1-2 weeks supply of that, and lots of bottled water as well. A generator would come in handy for loss of power, if you have one and KNOW how to use them safely--otherwise, get used to candlelight and flashlight. Finally, don't count on the phones working either. Land lines will surely go down, at least for a while, and even the cells will be damaged for a while, so if you have a 2-way radio, or other means of communication (certainly a cell wouldn't hurt, and just might keep you in touch). Again, if you have all these, AND you're in a sturdy home with no trees capable of collapsing into your abode, then you're probably as well off as can be expected, and will manage out okay when all is said and done. But prepare for a major cleanup afterwards.

A2K

[Jim Cantore]

Where there is damage, there is potential for fatalities, falling trees and flying debris kill people commonly.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Where there is damage, there is potential for fatalities, falling trees and flying debris kill people commonly.

I readily conceded that possibility in my earlier post--but then are you going to run 200 miles EVERY time a storm approaches with the potential to be a major before landfall? (rhetorical question) I just don't think it's necessary, OR worth the bother IF I have all the preparations I'd mentioned--and many people died on the roads in those standstill evacuation routes. You could count the Katrina death toll from "damage" inland on your two hands; you couldn't count the total within 25 miles of landfall/coastline without 750 plus people using both hands--it's all how you care to look at it. The bottom line is yes, where there's damage there's a "potential" for death; (even in a thunderstorm) but those odds drop by over 95 plus percent once you're more than 20 miles inland.

A2K

[Jim Cantore]

but then are you going to run 200 miles EVERY time a storm approaches with the potential to be a major before landfall?

depends where I'm at, in a highly surge prone area yes, otherwise I'll see how it plays out to a point.

Although I look forward to my first "full blown" Hurricane encounter, if a 5 comes my way and I'm within 31 miles of the coast I'm gone.

I'm adventurous but not stupid

[wxman57]

Absolutely.
Let put a Katrina size hurricane, 30 mile wide eye, cat4 hurricane on a course for your house at a speed of 15 mph. By the time the hurricane makes official landfall (center of eye crossing the coast), the eyewall will be a mere 5-10 miles from your house. in 40 mins to an hour, its over your house. I would think that a 145 mph hurricane will not drop to a 110 cat2 40 mins after landfall. thats just one scenario, you could have a charley sized storm moving really slow, and in that case yes you probably wouldnt need to evacuate. But still, i would play it safe.

A tropical cyclone's winds don't start to decline when the center of the eye hits the coast. They begin declining the instant the wind field moves over any land. This is due to surface friction. By the time the stronger winds get 25-30 miles inland, the reduction in 1-minute sustained wind due to surface friction may be in the 15-25% range. So you'll never see Cat 5 and probably never Cat 4 winds 25 miles inland (and generally not even Cat 3 winds), but as many here will tell you, Cat 1-2 winds are pretty strong - strong enough to destroy a well-built home if the windows aren't covered (or if you have any big trees that may fall on the house).

[Jim Cantore]

Absolutely.
Let put a Katrina size hurricane, 30 mile wide eye, cat4 hurricane on a course for your house at a speed of 15 mph. By the time the hurricane makes official landfall (center of eye crossing the coast), the eyewall will be a mere 5-10 miles from your house. in 40 mins to an hour, its over your house. I would think that a 145 mph hurricane will not drop to a 110 cat2 40 mins after landfall. thats just one scenario, you could have a charley sized storm moving really slow, and in that case yes you probably wouldnt need to evacuate. But still, i would play it safe.

A tropical cyclone's winds don't start to decline when the center of the eye hits the coast. They begin declining the instant the wind field moves over any land. This is due to surface friction. By the time the stronger winds get 25-30 miles inland, the reduction in 1-minute sustained wind due to surface friction may be in the 15-25% range. So you'll never see Cat 5 and probably never Cat 4 winds 25 miles inland (and generally not even Cat 3 winds), but as many here will tell you, Cat 1-2 winds are pretty strong - strong enough to destroy a well-built home if the windows aren't covered (or if you have any big trees that may fall on the house).

Wilma and Charley being good examples of that

[docjoe]

Absolutely.
Let put a Katrina size hurricane, 30 mile wide eye, cat4 hurricane on a course for your house at a speed of 15 mph. By the time the hurricane makes official landfall (center of eye crossing the coast), the eyewall will be a mere 5-10 miles from your house. in 40 mins to an hour, its over your house. I would think that a 145 mph hurricane will not drop to a 110 cat2 40 mins after landfall. thats just one scenario, you could have a charley sized storm moving really slow, and in that case yes you probably wouldnt need to evacuate. But still, i would play it safe.

A tropical cyclone's winds don't start to decline when the center of the eye hits the coast. They begin declining the instant the wind field moves over any land. This is due to surface friction. By the time the stronger winds get 25-30 miles inland, the reduction in 1-minute sustained wind due to surface friction may be in the 15-25% range. So you'll never see Cat 5 and probably never Cat 4 winds 25 miles inland (and generally not even Cat 3 winds), but as many here will tell you, Cat 1-2 winds are pretty strong - strong enough to destroy a well-built home if the windows aren't covered (or if you have any big trees that may fall on the house).

I still think you can get stronger winds further inland under the right geographic circumstances. There are several large bay systems in the northern gulf that I feel might allow stronger winds to penetrate further inland due to less distance traveled over land.

docjoe

[Jim Cantore]

Depends on speed of motion, Pinhole eye and a quick motion could put cat 4-5 winds 25 miles inland. We wouldn't know however because we havent seen that situation.

[wxman57]

I still think you can get stronger winds further inland under the right geographic circumstances. There are several large bay systems in the northern gulf that I feel might allow stronger winds to penetrate further inland due to less distance traveled over land.

docjoe

While that is quite true, I wouldn't consider a location, say, on the northern tip of Galveston Bay to be 40-50 miles inland. 25 miles inland is 25 miles inland - 25 miles away from ANY source of water, and that includes bays.

[gatorcane]

you're 25 miles from the coast. You should NOT be evacuating, unless you are in a flood zone. A Hurricane will lose 1 to 2 categories before it even makes it to you

Unless you ar ein a mobile home, or in a home that is very poorly constructued, hunker down in an interior room during a hurricane. For a Wilma at its record peak, then it may be a differnet issue, but those ar every few and very far between

Derek I also will disagree with you. Palm Beach County is flat swampland basically, a storm moving at a typical speed of 10mph or would only have it over land for about 2 hours. There is no threat from storm surge but how about possible CAT 3 to CAT 4 gusts? That is enough to put a family in serious jeapordy.

If a CAT 4 or CAT 5 is approach I guarantee you most people in Palm Beach County are gone.

[Derek Ortt]

Charley was NOT a cat 3 100 miles inland. Arcadia received upper category 2 conditions, and when it reached Orlando, it had weakened to a cat 1

[Derek Ortt]

also, as has been preached by many

Run from the water, hide from the wind

[hurricanesurvivor]

If it's okay to stay for a cat 5 if you're 20 miles inland, why did everyone consider me and my family so stupid for riding out Katrina?

[Derek Ortt]

its only foolish to stay if you8 are in a poorly built home, or a mobile home, or are in a surge zone. The EC of Florida is not surge prone; thus, if you're more than about a half mile from the coast, surge is a non-issue

[JPmia]

This really is a personal decision that cannot be made by anyone else other than you and your family, but one we should all think about.

[Scorpion]

If it's okay to stay for a cat 5 if you're 20 miles inland, why did everyone consider me and my family so stupid for riding out Katrina?

The surge on the MGC will go much further inland.

[gatorcane]

Miami is at sea-level well-inland, where Palm Beach is not at sea-level well inland. A CAT 5 would certainly dump a storm surge that would be well into the metro and inland - total devastation in my opinion.

[aquaholic901]

I've often wondered about this too. I live a pretty good ways inland from the bay up here in Tampa so surge & flooding are pretty much a non-issue. I do live in an older (1988) 2-story frame house though so I'm not quite sure how that would fare. We had a lot of termite damage on the lower floors when we moved in so the load bearing walls have been almost completely rebuilt within the past 2 years. If there were a monster bearing down on us I'd probably high tail it inland to a friends place (ironically to almost the exact place where all 3 2004 central FL storms met in the middle of the state) but I think I'd probably stick around in anything less than a 3. Guess it would just depend on the circumstances.

[terstorm1012]

Miami is at sea-level well-inland, where Palm Beach is not at sea-level well inland. A CAT 5 would certainly dump a storm surge that would be well into the metro and inland - total devastation in my opinion.

Andrew's surge did not make it far past Old Cutler Road... it parallels the coast in South Dade about a half mile to mile inland. . .and I doubt it made it to US 1 though I could be wrong. I only know Old Cutler Road because relatives live on it and have for about 20 years.

Derek's assessment is pretty correct. Run from water, hide from wind.