SE Indian Ocean: TC Hubert

[P.K.]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:00pm WST on Sunday the 2nd of April 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

A tropical low 1007hPa, almost stationary, is developing near 14.5S 116.5E and
an active monsoon trough extends east to 13S129E.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OF LOW
Monday: low
Tuesday: moderate
Wednesday: moderate

REMARKS - The low is likely to remain almost stationary during Monday and
Tuesday, then the most likely movement of the low is towards the southwest.

Other tropical lows may develop on the monsoon trough to the north of the state
over the next three days but are not likely to develop into a tropical cyclone
during this period.

[Coredesat]

This was Invest 91S on NRL, but it's gone now.

[HURAKAN]

Something else to watch!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Hope it's not a Cat-5 monster.

[Coredesat]

Actually, the low looks better now, and it's still there:

[Weatherfreak000]

What's the next name of this list?

[HURAKAN]

Hubert.

[Coredesat]

Oops, 91S/92P was something else. This is Invest 93S:

[Weatherfreak000]

So how far along are they in their list?

[HURAKAN]

They have three continuous lists, which means that when one is over, they jump to the next one. In 2006 they started with Clare and now the last one was Glenda, but since their seasons starts in Novermber, Bertie has to be included. So, 6. Sounds a small amount, but remember, Australia is divided into three basins. Therefore, it's like if we had separate lists for the GOM, the Caribbean, and the rest of the Atlantic.

[Weatherfreak000]

They have three continuous lists, which means that when one is over, they jump to the next one. In 2006 they started with Clare and now the last one was Glenda, but since their seasons starts in Novermber, Bertie has to be included. So, 6. Sounds a small amount, but remember, Australia is divided into three basins. Therefore, it's like if we had separate lists for the GOM, the Caribbean, and the rest of the Atlantic.

That's pretty interesting, thanks for the explanation.

[P.K.]

So how far along are they in their list?

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/tc2006.htm

[HurricaneHunter914]

If it becomes a named storm what will the name be.

[HURAKAN]

If it becomes a named storm what will the name be.

HUBERT.

[HurricaneHunter914]

That name reminds me of Hugo. Hopefully it won't be but we'll see.

[Squeako da Magnifico]

Here's the list of Cyclones for the Australian Region.

http://www.bom.gov.au/catalogue/warning ... ames.shtml

[Coredesat]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.6S 115.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH OF DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CON-
VECTION CYCLING NEAR A BROAD BUT SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 021008Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THE AREA CURRENTLY
HAS STRONGER WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IS SUPERPOSED UNDER THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A 200 MB
ANTICYCLONE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[P.K.]

Outlook is upgraded to high in the next few days.

IDW10800
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:08pm WST on Monday the 3rd of April 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

A tropical low, 1002hPa, was located at noon WST Monday near 14.5S 115.0E and an
active monsoon trough extends east to 12S 129E. The low is likely to be in an
increasingly favourable environment for further development on Wednesday and
Thursday. The low is expected to be slow moving in the next two days and then
its most likely movement is towards the south southwest.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Tuesday: low
Wednesday: high
Thursday: high

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[Weatherfreak000]

What does it look like now?

[Coredesat]