NWS MIA Confirms a Strong Bermuda High, a Precursor?

[gatorcane]

Today's weather patterns here in S. Florida were if we were going into August instead of April. Strong ridging in the Western Atlantic with nice E wind at 10-15mph, clear tropical blue skies and cumulous pops blowing in off the Gulf Stream into coastal Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade moving into the Everglades. Temps not as warm as summer obviously but that is only due to the relatively cooler Atlantic waters with temps running in the mid 70s as opposed to the mid 80s. Sun angle is getting higher, it's equal to the sun angle in August now.

We are in a much different pattern than we were last year in Spring....much, much different...looking similar to 2004...

[johngaltfla]

Today's weather patterns here in S. Florida were if we were going into August instead of April. Strong ridging in the Western Atlantic with nice E wind at 10-15mph, clear tropical blue skies and cumulous pops blowing in off the Gulf Stream into coastal Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade moving into the Everglades. Temps not as warm as summer obviously but that is only due to the relatively cooler Atlantic waters with temps running in the mid 70s as opposed to the mid 80s. Sun angle is getting higher, it's equal to the sun angle in August now.

We are in a much different pattern than we were last year in Spring....much, much different...looking similar to 2004...

SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.....

They might hear you....

[meteorologyman]

No rain in my area either

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... &map.y=115

[Rainband]

Hurricane season is two months from now. Things will probably change by then

[gatorcane]

This link shows the classic Bermuda High - and look very carefully out at Africa...there are a few waves the GFS is showing are exiting the coast...first time I've seen the GFS showing this in a while


There is no Azores High - it would be there in August
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006033118&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=024hr

[johngaltfla]

Hurricane season is two months from now. Things will probably change by then

Rainband, I hope so. Because here in SW Florida, the pattern is almost identical to 2004. I mean we're getting two rainy days per month, well below normal and the long range forecasts the local forecasters are discussing on air are unfortunate, to say the least....

[Scorpion]

Very nice outside. Not hot out at all. They have been forecasting low-mid 80's for quite some time now, yet the temps have barely gotten out of the 70's.

[Hurricaneman]

Today's weather patterns here in S. Florida were if we were going into August instead of April. Strong ridging in the Western Atlantic with nice E wind at 10-15mph, clear tropical blue skies and cumulous pops blowing in off the Gulf Stream into coastal Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade moving into the Everglades. Temps not as warm as summer obviously but that is only due to the relatively cooler Atlantic waters with temps running in the mid 70s as opposed to the mid 80s. Sun angle is getting higher, it's equal to the sun angle in August now.

We are in a much different pattern than we were last year in Spring....much, much different...looking similar to 2004...

The only exception is there is a La Nina

[gatorcane]

Very nice outside. Not hot out at all. They have been forecasting low-mid 80's for quite some time now, yet the temps have barely gotten out of the 70's.

The reason is simple. The water temps of the SE coast of FL are running in the mid 70s. So with steady E winds, how can it get into the 80s unless you are farther inland. I like the Bermuda High for this reason....we get a good cooling breeze

[gatorcane]

Very nice outside. Not hot out at all. They have been forecasting low-mid 80's for quite some time now, yet the temps have barely gotten out of the 70's.

The reason is simple. The water temps of the SE coast off FL are running in the mid 70s. So with steady E winds, how can it get into the 80s unless you are farther inland. I like the Bermuda High for this reason....we get a good cooling breeze

As far as the pattern - it is a bit early to say what we'll see at the heart of hurricane season, it's my opinion that we'll certainly have a good chance of some ridging - more than 2005 I think - similar to 2004. Of course, if there are no hurricanes around it will mean:

nice cool Atlantic breezes

[gatorcane]

It's this discussion that prompted this thread, however, keep in mind it is still early.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 111756
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2006

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN..GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC HAS BEEN THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE ALL
WINTER. SO FAR THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS DURING
WHICH A TROUGH HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DIG DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. AND BRING COLD AIR TO OUR ZONES. THESE WERE THE TWO FREEZE
SITUATIONS WE HAD EARLIER IN THE WINTER. SINCE THIS UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE..ANY FRONTS THAT WE HAVE MOVE INTO OUR ZONES
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO BRING ANY BIG TEMPERATURE CHANGES WITH THEM.
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THEM WILL MAINLY MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC TO OUR
NORTH. ALSO THIS UPPER RIDGE HAS GENERALLY PREVENTED ANY DEEP FLOW
OF MOISTURE FROM RETURNING AHEAD OF ANY FRONT SO WE HAVE ALSO HAD
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THEM. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WAS IN THE
PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING IN
OUR DIRECTION UNTIL LATE TOMORROW. WHAT IS LEFT OF IT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE IN OUR VICINITY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT AFTER THAT IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
ZONES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEITHER OF THESE FRONTS SHOULD
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS. THEIR TWO MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS

[boca]

Let me add to this.


...RECORD DRY MARCH IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND HOLLYWOOD...

BARRING ANY UNEXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY, FORT LAUDERDALE WILL SET THE
ALL-TIME DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD WITH ONLY 0.03 INCHES OF RAIN FOR
THE ENTIRE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 0.07 INCHES IN 1945.
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR FORT LAUDERDALE EXTEND BACK TO 1913.

AT THE HOLLYWOOD WASTE WATER PLANT, ONLY 0.02 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN IN MARCH. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.18 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1979. RECORDS FOR HOLLYWOOD EXTEND BACK TO 1941.

MARCH WAS A DRY MONTH OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH ALL OF THE
MAIN REPORTING STATIONS RECEIVING WELL BELOW-AVERAGE RAINFALL.
THESE REPORTS INCLUDE:

FORT LAUDERDALE... 0.03 INCHES (2.77 INCHES BELOW NORMAL)
ALL TIME MARCH RECORD

NAPLES REGIONAL AIRPORT...0.08 INCHES (2.25 INCHES BELOW NORMAL)
5TH DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL... 1.10 INCHES (1.34 INCHES BELOW NORMAL)
WEST PALM BEACH... 1.78 INCHES (1.54 INCHES BELOW NORMAL)

THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BROWARD COUNTY TO EXTREME
NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY RECEIVED VERY LITTLE RAIN IN MARCH, WITH
VALUES GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS. FARTHER WEST, AREAS OF
THE EVERGLADES ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY EXTENDING TO MOST
OF COLLIER COUNTY RECEIVED LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

OBSERVATIONS FROM OTHER LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA (IN INCHES):

OASIS (EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY)... 0.00 (DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD)

CHOKOLOSKEE (COLLIER COUNTY)... 0.00 (DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD)

GOLDEN GATE (COLLIER COUNTY)... 0.00 (DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD)

FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH (BROWARD COUNTY)... TRACE

MARCO ISLAND (COLLIER COUNTY)... 0.05

NORTH MIAMI BEACH (MIAMI-DADE COUNTY)... 0.14

DEVILS GARDEN (HENDRY COUNTY)... 0.40 (5TH DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD)

FLAMINGO (MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY) 0.51 (11TH DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD)

PERRINE (MIAMI-DADE COUNTY)... 0.61 (11TH DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD)

BRIGHTON (GLADES COUNTY)... 0.68

MIAMI BEACH (MIAMI-DADE COUNTY)...1.38

CLEWISTON (HENDRY COUNTY)... 1.85

AT ALMOST EVERY LOCATION IN SOUTH FLORIDA, THE ENTIRE MARCH RAINFALL
OCCURRED ON ONE DAY, MARCH 23RD, WHEN THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
INDICATES THAT THIS PATTERN OF DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER MAY PERSIST
THROUGH MAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LA NIA PATTERN WHICH IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN, AND OFTEN RESULTS IN VERY
DRY SPRING WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE PERSISTENT DRYNESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA HAS RESULTED IN AN
INCREASED THREAT OF WILDFIRES, WHICH BASED ON THE CPC OUTLOOK, COULD
LAST THROUGH MAY. ALL PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD BE AWARE OF
THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER AND TAKE NECESSARY MEASURES TO PREVENT
WILDFIRES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, AS WELL AS THE LATEST WARNINGS, FORECASTS, AND
OBSERVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI WEB
SITE AT http://WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

$$

MOLLEDA

[boca]

2006 identical to 2004. I wish I could bring up the 04 Miami discussions it would be an interesting read.

[wxmann_91]

From the look of things that Bermuda High ain't going anywhere anytime soon. 2005 was just the opposite. So that shows ya there is little correlation, even though IMO that ridge could be staying for the summer.

[TampaFl]

NOUS42 KTBW 011040
PNSTBW

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
540 AM EST SAT APR 1 2006

...RECORD DRY WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

THE NUMBERS ARE IN AND MARCH 2006 ENDED UP BEING ONE OF THE TOP TEN
DRIEST MARCH'S ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
IN GENERAL...LOCATIONS FROM TAMPA BAY TO LAKELAND NORTHWARD RECEIVED
LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH. THESE AMOUNTS ARE WELL BELOW THE NORMAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2.5 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
DURING MARCH AND ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES IN MANY SPOTS. BELOW ARE
LISTS OF THE TOP TEN DRIEST MARCH'S AT A FEW SITES ACROSS THE AREA.


TOP TEN DRIEST TOP TEN DRIEST
MARCH'S IN TAMPA: MARCH'S IN SARASOTA-BRADENTON:

1 TRACE IN 2006 * 1 0.26 IN 1956
1 TRACE IN 1907 2 0.29 IN 1949
3 0.06 IN 1956 3 0.37 IN 1976
4 0.08 IN 1908 4 0.45 IN 2004
4 0.08 IN 1898 5 0.52 IN 1977
6 0.20 IN 1945 6 0.56 IN 1953
7 0.22 IN 1949 7 0.67 IN 2006 *
8 0.41 IN 2000 8 0.86 IN 2002
9 0.47 IN 1917 9 0.91 IN 1981
10 0.52 IN 1935 10 1.00 IN 1951

NORMAL FOR TPA = 2.84 IN. NORMAL FOR SRQ = 3.36 IN.
RECORDS BEGAN APRIL 1890 RECORDS BEGAN JULY 1948


TOP TEN DRIEST TOP TEN DRIEST
MARCH'S IN LAKELAND: MARCH'S IN FORT MYERS:

1 0.22 IN 2006 * 1 0.00 IN 1935
1 0.22 IN 1916 2 0.03 IN 1974
3 0.53 IN 1925 3 0.04 IN 1939
4 0.63 IN 2000 4 0.05 IN 1956
5 0.68 IN 2002 5 0.09 IN 1977
6 0.78 IN 1949 6 0.10 IN 1945
7 0.83 IN 1977 7 0.13 IN 1949
8 0.92 IN 1945 8 0.19 IN 2002
9 1.01 IN 1956 8 0.19 IN 1946
10 1.05 IN 1954 10 0.32 IN 2006 *
10 0.32 IN 1955

NORMAL FOR LAL = 3.38 IN. NORMAL FOR FMY = 2.74 IN.
RECORDS BEGAN JANUARY 1915 RECORDS BEGAN JANUARY 1931

____________________________________________________________________


IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE IS A LIST OF UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
MARCH 2006 FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA,
ALONG WITH THE NORMAL AMOUNT FOR MARCH, OR WHAT IS EXPECTED, THE
PERCENT OF NORMAL, AS WELL AS THE MARCH RANKING SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
AT EACH LOCATION. FROM THE LIST WE CAN SEE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
RANKED IN THE TOP TEN DRIEST FOR MARCH SINCE THEIR RECORDS BEGAN.


ACTUAL NORMAL PERCENT YEAR
MAR 06 RAINFALL OF MARCH RECORDS
LOCATION RAIN FOR MARCH NORMAL RANKING BEGAN

BROOKSVILLE CHIN HILL 0.00 4.22 0% 1ST 1892
CHIEFLAND 5 SE TRACE 4.73 0% 1ST 1956
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL TRACE 2.84 0% T-1ST 1890
INVERNESS 0.01 4.17 0% 2ND 1899
PLANT CITY 0.01 3.39 0% 3RD 1893
ST. LEO 0.02 4.06 1% 3RD 1895
TARPON SPRINGS 0.02 3.85 1% 2ND 1892
ST. PETE/ALBERT WHITTED 0.06 3.29 2% 2ND 1914
AVON PARK 2 W 0.19 3.02 6% 2ND 1892
LAKE WALES 0.20 3.12 6% 1ST 1935
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE 0.21 2.73 8% 2ND 1965
LAKELAND LINDER ARPT 0.22 3.38 7% T-1ST 1915
WAUCHULA 2 N 0.30 3.27 9% T-5TH 1933
FORT MYERS/PAGE FIELD 0.32 2.74 12% 10TH 1931
VENICE 0.36 3.37 11% 4TH 1955
PARRISH 0.40 3.02 13% 4TH 1948
SARASOTA-BRADENTON INT'L 0.67 3.36 20% 7TH 1948
ARCADIA 0.85 3.10 27% 19TH 1899
ARCHBOLD BIO STATION 0.87 3.25 27% 6TH 1969

____________________________________________________________________


THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN BEGAN AT THE END OF FEBRUARY WITH THE LAST
DECENT RAINFALL FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NORTHWARD OCCURRING ON
FEBRUARY 26TH. IN FACT THE LAST MEASURABLE RAIN AT TAMPA INT'L
OCCURRED ON THIS DAY MAKING TODAY, APRIL 1, THE 34TH CONSECUTIVE
DAY WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN. BELOW IS THE LIST OF 30 OR MORE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN AT TAMPA SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN ON APRIL 1 1890.

NUMBER
RANK OF DAYS BEGINNING AND ENDING DATES

1 52 10/09/1942 - 11/29/1942
2 47 03/30/1967 - 05/15/1967
2 47 10/06/1940 - 11/24-1940
4 45 03/23/1981 - 05/06/1981
5 44 12/26/1949 - 02/07/1950
6 40 11/01/1960 - 12/10/1960
6 40 02/20/1907 - 03/31/1907
8 39 12/12/1988 - 01/19/1989
9 38 02/12/1955 - 03/21/1955
9 38 10/12/1948 - 11/18/1948
11 37 10/04/2000 - 11/09/2000
12 36 05/09/1941 - 06/13/1941
13 35 04/27/2001 - 05/31/2001
13 35 12/21/1906 - 01/24/1907 ***
15 34 11/16/1906 - 12/19/1906 ***
15 34 02/27/2006 - 04/01/2006 AND COUNTING
16 33 03/11/1978 - 04/12/1978
16 33 11/23/1924 - 12/25/1924
18 32 04/15/1955 - 05/16/1955
18 32 04/15/1914 - 05/16/1914
20 31 05/11/2000 - 06/10/2000
20 31 11/15/1970 - 12/15/1970
20 31 03/21/1965 - 04/20/1965
23 30 02/15/2000 - 03/15/2000
23 30 01/23/1989 - 02/21/1989
23 30 10/04/1988 - 11/02/1988
23 30 11/03/1967 - 12/02/1967
23 30 10/04/1943 - 11/02/1943
23 30 01/15/1927 - 02/13/1927
23 30 02/21/1911 - 03/22/1911

*** DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ONLY 0.09 INCH OF RAIN FELL ON
12/20/1906...OTHERWISE IT WOULD HAVE BEEN 70 CONSECUTIVE DAYS
WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.


THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER CALLS FOR MORE DRY WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AS WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW/ THEN CLICK ON THE LOCAL CLIMATE PAGE
LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE MENU.

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest Miami NWS discussion...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 020710
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
310 AM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CONTINUATION OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN EXTREMELY LOW. SOME MINOR CHANGES IN THE
PATTERN WILL OCCUR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SAG ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BEFORE STALLING. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECASTS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THAT
TIME PERIOD AS SETUP COULD BE IDEAL. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HANG AROUND WEDNESDAY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AND COULD BE FOCUS
FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. NEVERTHELESS, CHANCES STILL LOOK IN THE
SLIGHT RANGE. REST OF THE WEEK WILL RETURN US TO FAIRLY GRIM
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. NO BIG
CHANGES.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY
UNDER 3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST. NO HIGHLIGHTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS/CONCERNS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 64 84 65 / 5 5 5 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 67 83 67 / 5 5 5 10
MIAMI 83 66 84 68 / 5 5 5 10
NAPLES 83 64 84 66 / 5 5 5 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[gatorcane]

From the look of things that Bermuda High ain't going anywhere anytime soon. 2005 was just the opposite. So that shows ya there is little correlation, even though IMO that ridge could be staying for the summer

.

Actually the Bermuda High was strong in 2005 also. Dennis, Katrina, and Rita, are examples of storms that could have turned out to sea but didn't.
Looks like 2004, 2005, and now 2006 look to be strong Bermuda High years.

IMHO, it is only getting stronger with time. Winters have progressively been getting warmer. Last winter was pathetic here in South Florida only getting cold three times (cold is 40s or less).

Where are the huge blizzards in the NE? Where are the hard freezes for Florida...the last big was was in 1989...royal palms are growing as far north as Orlando now.......back in the 30s and 40s Tampa had lots of Royal Palms lining Bayshore...in the 1950s a cold snap killed all of them. That coincidentally marked the beginning of the "cool phase" in the Atlantic Basin...now we are back in the warm phase.

[Weatherfreak000]

Actually ridging in place spells disaster for just about everyone. It would probably keep any long tracking CV System out to sea or slam it into Florida.



Maybe it'll fluctuate a bit and allow one or two EC strikes...but...come on. I really wanna throw you guys up there on the EC a nice sigh of relief. And i'm thinking maybe it's possible I could do that


There is no need for a precursor in my opinion. Florida will get hit by a hurricane this season. You can bank out it and i'd bet the house. I'm sorry if that isn't what you guys wanna hear but it's unfortunately Florida's fate


I hope all CV Systems get throw out to sea and the homegrown systems get steered into less densely populated areas of Mexico and maybe Texas. That would be a blessing. But I don't wanna wish storms on anyone, so i'ma drop this.

[spinfan4eva]

well, its official, the weather now SUX in NE Florida-first time of 2006 Aweful early--more like June

BTW Ties record for 1977--Analog year possible?
02 90 1977

[CHRISTY]

as the days continue to pass iam begining to realize this bermuda high might stick around and spell real bad news for the southeast!!!!