Let's hope a pattern change for upcoming hurricane season.

#61 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 10:39 pm

we Floridans are anxious aren't we already posting shear maps

HurricaneHunter914 · #62 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 10:47 pm

we Floridans are anxious aren't we already posting shear maps

Oh yeah! I can't wait for the hurricane season. But every time a shear map comes up El Nino appears in my head. :grr:

#63 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 10:50 pm

el nino?

meteorologyman · #64 Postby **meteorologyman** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 10:55 pm

I hate to say this people but I remember 2004 like it was yesterday and it was a dry season, and if this ridge get stronger and the gulf coast gets warmer than FL is in trouble

My question though is that if a hurricane enter the gulf from the south like Wilma will the storm more likely hit Florida like Charlie, or Ivan or will it hit somewhere else along the gulf (due to ridge).

#65 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 10:57 pm

it all depends....August and September track would probably be more west.
June and October good chance of a trough curving the system NE (more so in October).
However, depending upon a long wave pattern or troughiness any storm could curve NE in any of the hurricane months.

Charely was a rare situation. Very rare.

meteorologyman · #66 Postby **meteorologyman** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 11:02 pm

Thank you boca chris

Yeah if I remember correctly Charley went east b/c a low front knocked it into FL

meteorologyman · #67 Postby **meteorologyman** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 11:04 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:
we Floridans are anxious aren't we already posting shear maps

Oh yeah! I can't wait for the hurricane season. But every time a shear map comes up El Nino appears in my head.

I think you mean La Nina (La nina is cooling in the Pacific and warming in the Atlantic) (El Nino is warming in the Pacific and cooling in the Atlantic)

#68 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Mar 30, 2006 11:08 pm

I think you mean La Nina (La nina is cooling in the Pacific and warming in the Atlantic) (El Nino is warming in the Pacific and cooling in the Atlantic

No I think he means El nino since it creates more shear in the Atlantic Basin which would thwart hurricane development

Weatherfreak14 · #69 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Fri Mar 31, 2006 8:26 am

IMO this year will be about the same as maybe the 04 season. So watch out flordia. But my prediction isnt based on any data soooo... its just a feeling I have.

boca · #70 Postby **boca** » Fri Mar 31, 2006 8:53 am

Our friendly high thats been keeping us dry for 95% of this past winter doesn't want to back down. Its all in the strength of the high and position to steer these storms. I'm -removed- a tropical wave or a depression to give us much needed water down here. Ft Lauderdale got .03 for March. Naples .08 for March 5th driest March.

AN ASIDE...FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...WITH ONLY 0.03
INCH OF RAIN IN MARCH SO FAR...WOULD SET THEIR DRIEST MARCH ON
RECORD...SINCE 1913...IF NO ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE RAIN FALLS THROUGH
FRIDAY. AND NAPLES...WITH ONLY 0.08 INCH IN MARCH SO FAR...WOULD SET
THEIR FIFTH DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD...SINCE 1942. WEST PALM BEACH AND
MIAMI RECEIVED MORE RAIN LAST WEEK AND ARE NOT ANYWHERE NEAR A
RECORD.
...ORLANDO AND DAYTONA BEACH ON TRACK FOR DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD...
...LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT 7 DAYS...

Let's hope a pattern change for upcoming hurricane season.

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