Let's hope a pattern change for upcoming hurricane season.

[f5]

Katrina can easily be taken over as worst natural disaster for instance a volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands sends a 100 ft high Tsunami towards the east coast

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the Melbourne NWS discussion...

000
FXUS62 KMLB 301949
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EST THU MAR 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...ORLANDO AND DAYTONA BEACH ON TRACK FOR DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD...

...LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT 7 DAYS...

TONIGHT/FRI...AS EXPECTED HIGH CLOUDINESS IS AFFECTING NORTHERN
SECTIONS AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT. THE STRATOCU HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY AS IT MIXES WITH DRIER AIR...
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. ONLY EXCEPTION
COULD BE ALG THE COAST WHERE SCRAPS OF MARINE STRATOCU MOVE ONSHORE.
OVERALL BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL SECTIONS.

HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GFS MOS ON LOWS TONIGHT ALG THE COAST
(MLB/VRB/FPR) AS ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE COOL OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOW FROM DEVELOPING THERE.

FRIDAY LOOKS A LOT LIKE TODAY WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S INTERIOR...POSSIBLY A FEW MID 80S...AND UPPER 70S
NEAR THE COAST (MID 70S COASTAL VOLUSIA). EXPECT SCT STRATOCU AGAIN
BUT PERHAPS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH HIGH
CLOUDINESS. OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES INTERIOR AND BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY NEAR THE COAST AFTER SOME MORNING STRATOCU.

FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL SUPPRESS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOWER 80S ALONG
THE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SUN-THU...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM...THIS LOW WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUDGE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
STATE. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUE-WED. WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE
SUGGEST THAT 00Z MEX POPS NEAR 15-20 PERCENT ARE STILL TOO HIGH.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW...WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...ONE MORE DAY OF DEEP EASTERLY FLOW 10-15 KNOTS FRI WITH
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET...BEFORE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON. WAVE WATCH SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 2-4
FT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THESE
VALUES. NOAA WAVEWATCH CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL (1 FOOT) BUT VERY
LONG PERIOD SWELL (14-15 SEC) WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP THE RIP CURRENT
THREAT ELEVATED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CIGS (~15K FT) AFFECTING SOME TERMINALS (DAB/SFB)
WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY THIN AND WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS NEAR THE COAST. OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS...MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO AROUND 35% FRI AFTERNOON BUT LONG DURATIONS OF
CRITICAL RH ARE NOT EXPECTED.

RH VALUES WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LONG
DURATIONS OF RH BELOW 40-45 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL LIMIT THE SPREAD OF NEW OR EXISTING WILDFIRES.

&&

.CLIMATE...VERY DRY MARCH LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO THE RECORD BOOKS
FOR ORLANDO AND DAYTONA BEACH.

MARCH `06 RECORD MARCH
DAB 0.08" 0.25" (1956)
MCO 0.02" 0.16" (1956)
MLB 0.25" 0.03" (1956)
VRB 0.53" 0.09" (1956)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 57 78 56 82 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 58 83 56 85 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 62 79 59 81 / 10 0 0 0
VRB 63 79 61 80 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....HIRSCH

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the Miami NWS discussion...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 301916
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
216 PM EST THU MAR 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE
OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE
DELMARVA COASTAL WATERS. H5 PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKENS BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. BY
THEN, ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FLOW IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...ENE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED. ON FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
BY SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS AND GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE 35
PERCENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 67 78 65 81 / 5 0 5 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 79 68 80 / 5 0 0 0
MIAMI 68 80 67 82 / 5 0 0 0
NAPLES 61 82 61 82 / 5 5 5 0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

18

[MiamiensisWx]

GFS shows developing ridging well beyond 100 hours...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006033012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[TampaFl]

NOUS42 KTBW 291926
PNSTBW

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
225 PM EST WED MAR 29 2006

...RECORD DRY WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

MARCH 2006 CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
LOCATIONS FROM TAMPA BAY TO LAKELAND NORTHWARD RECEIVING LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH SOME RAIN DID FALL
LAST WEEK...BUT MOST AREAS RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH. AT THIS TIME
NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINING COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
MONTH SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE 28TH
WILL BE THE FINAL AMOUNTS FOR MARCH. THESE AMOUNTS ARE WELL BELOW
THE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2.5 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION DURING MARCH AND ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES IN A FEW SPOTS.
BELOW IS THE TOP TEN DRIEST MARCHES AT A FEW SITES ACROSS THE AREA.


TOP TEN DRIEST TOP TEN DRIEST
MARCHES IN TAMPA: MARCHES IN SARASOTA-BRADENTON:

[b]1 TRACE IN 2006 * [/b] 1 0.26 IN 1956
1 TRACE IN 1907 2 0.29 IN 1949
3 0.06 IN 1956 3 0.37 IN 1976
4 0.08 IN 1908 4 0.45 IN 2004
4 0.08 IN 1898 5 0.52 IN 1977
6 0.20 IN 1945 6 0.56 IN 1953
7 0.22 IN 1949 7 0.67 IN 2006 *
8 0.41 IN 2000 8 0.86 IN 2002
9 0.47 IN 1917 9 0.91 IN 1981
10 0.52 IN 1935 10 1.00 IN 1951

CURRENT TOTAL AT TPA CURRENT TOTAL AT SRQ
THROUGH MARCH 29TH = TRACE THROUGH MARCH 29TH = 0.67 IN.

NORMAL FOR TPA = 2.84 IN. NORMAL FOR SRQ = 3.36 IN.
RECORDS BEGAN APRIL 1890 RECORDS BEGAN JULY 1948


TOP TEN DRIEST TOP TEN DRIEST
MARCHES IN LAKELAND: MARCHES IN FORT MYERS:

1 0.04 IN 1927 1 0.00 IN 1935
2 0.12 IN 1950 2 0.03 IN 1974
3 0.20 IN 1949 3 0.04 IN 1939
4 0.22 IN 2006 * 4 0.05 IN 1956
5 0.26 IN 1971 5 0.09 IN 1977
6 0.27 IN 1951 6 0.10 IN 1945
7 0.29 IN 1968 7 0.13 IN 1949
8 0.40 IN 1990 8 0.19 IN 2002
9 0.46 IN 1922 8 0.19 IN 1946
10 0.48 IN 1943 10 0.32 IN 2006 *
10 0.32 IN 1955

CURRENT TOTAL AT LAL CURRENT TOTAL AT FMY
THROUGH MARCH 29TH = 0.22 IN. THROUGH MARCH 29TH = 0.32 IN.

NORMAL FOR LAL = 3.38 IN. NORMAL FOR FMY = 2.74 IN.
RECORDS BEGAN JANUARY 1915 RECORDS BEGAN JANUARY 1931

___________________________________________________________________


BELOW IS A LIST OF UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MARCH FOR SOME
LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, ALONG WITH THE
NORMAL AMOUNT FOR MARCH, OR WHAT IS EXPECTED, AND THE PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR MARCH.

NORMAL ACTUAL RAIN
RAINFALL MARCH 1 TO PERCENT
LOCATION FOR MARCH MARCH 28 OF NORMAL

BROOKSVILLE CHIN HILL 4.22 0.00 0%
CHIEFLAND 5 SE 4.73 TRACE 0%
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL 2.84 TRACE 0%
INVERNESS 4.17 0.01 0%
PLANT CITY 3.39 0.01 0%
ST. LEO 4.06 0.02 1%
TARPON SPRINGS 3.85 0.02 1%
ST. PETE/ALBERT WHITTED 3.29 0.06 2%
AVON PARK 2 W 3.02 0.19 6%
LAKE WALES 3.12 0.20 6%
LAKELAND LINDER ARPT 3.38 0.22 7%
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE 2.73 0.21 8%
WAUCHULA 2 N 3.27 0.30 9%
VENICE 3.37 0.36 11%
FORT MYERS/PAGE FIELD 2.74 0.32 12%
PARRISH 3.02 0.40 13%
SARASOTA-BRADENTON INT'L 3.36 0.67 20%
ARCADIA 3.10 0.85 27%
ARCHBOLD BIO STATION 3.25 0.87 27%

___________________________________________________________________


THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN BEGAN AT THE END OF FEBRUARY WITH THE LAST
DECENT RAINFALL FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NORTHWARD OCCURRING ON
FEBRUARY 26TH. IN FACT THE LAST MEASURABLE RAIN AT TAMPA INT'L
OCCURRED ON THIS DAY MAKING TODAY, MARCH 29, THE 31ST CONSECUTIVE
DAY WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN. BELOW IS THE LIST OF 30 OR MORE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN AT TAMPA SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN ON APRIL 1 1890.
NUMBER
RANK OF DAYS BEGINNING AND ENDING DATES

1 52 10/09/1942 - 11/29/1942
2 47 03/30/1967 - 05/15/1967
2 47 10/06/1940 - 11/24-1940
4 45 03/23/1981 - 05/06/1981
5 44 12/26/1949 - 02/07/1950
6 40 11/01/1960 - 12/10/1960
6 40 02/20/1907 - 03/31/1907
8 39 12/12/1988 - 01/19/1989
9 38 02/12/1955 - 03/21/1955
9 38 10/12/1948 - 11/18/1948
11 37 10/04/2000 - 11/09/2000
12 36 05/09/1941 - 06/13/1941
13 35 04/27/2001 - 05/31/2001
13 35 12/21/1906 - 01/24/1907 ***
15 34 11/16/1906 - 12/19/1906 ***
16 33 03/11/1978 - 04/12/1978
16 33 11/23/1924 - 12/25/1924
18 32 04/15/1955 - 05/16/1955
18 32 04/15/1914 - 05/16/1914
20 31 02/27/2006 - 03/29/2006 AND COUNTING
20 31 05/11/2000 - 06/10/2000
20 31 11/15/1970 - 12/15/1970
20 31 03/21/1965 - 04/20/1965
23 30 02/15/2000 - 03/15/2000
23 30 01/23/1989 - 02/21/1989
23 30 10/04/1988 - 11/02/1988
23 30 11/03/1967 - 12/02/1967
23 30 10/04/1943 - 11/02/1943
23 30 01/15/1927 - 02/13/1927
23 30 02/21/1911 - 03/22/1911

*** DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ONLY 0.09 INCH OF RAIN FELL ON
12/20/1906...OTHERWISE IT WOULD HAVE BEEN 70 CONSECUTIVE DAYS
WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.


THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER CALLS FOR MORE DRY WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AS WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW/ THEN CLICK ON THE LOCAL CLIMATE PAGE
LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE MENU.

$$

PRC



[HurricaneHunter914]

Is it dry in the southeast states because of La Nina, because I heard El Nino is supposed to give us more rain than what we have now.

[Ivanhater]

Driest march on record for Pensacola

[HurricaneHunter914]

Driest March on record for Orlando and other central Florida counties.

[CHRISTY]

just looked at some long range forcast models and no rain in sight until about the 20-25 of april and maybe even longer.and also i might add very strong ridge holding firm.NOTE this year might have less number of storms but may very well be the year we relive if can say ANDREW PART 2.

[webke]

Personally I hope that the patterns change and that no landfalls on any of America's coast happen this year. let them all be fishes.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree, webke. That would be the best - if it were possible, that is!

[webke]

One can only Pray.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree; actually, I hope no landfalls occur ANYWHERE in the Atlantic Basin, whether the U.S. or a foreign country.

[webke]

AMEN to that.

[Cookiely]

I'm not so sure I won't be begging for a small tropical storm if this dry weather continues. I don't mind watering the garden or the flower beds, but hand watering the lawn drives me crazy.

[cajungal]

I know how hot and dry it has been here lately and that might not be a good thing. But, I am taking one day at a time and no use worrying about it right now. Whatever is going to happen is going to happen. This might be off topic, but I can't believe I went swimming for the first time since last summer today. And it not even April yet!

[Janice]

It is extremely dry here. We really need a few straight days of good rain. My lawn is dried out.

[BayouVenteux]

One possible signal as to how warm it's been this winter and on into spring was the lack, or in some cases, complete absence of, flowering blooms on the area Bradford Pear trees this year. Insufficient chilling is usually the culprit for Bradfords and other flowering and fruit-bearing deciduous trees that fail to set blossoms.

Could be a clue from Mother Nature that would correspond to what many people here are noting with regard to that large body of water just off to our south.

Here's one Gulf Coaster's wish for plenty of shear, unfavorable steering currents, and nothing but garden-variety sea breeze front t-storms this coming summer.

[hial2]

yea i know...but i have a feelin hurricane katrina will not hold the title for to long for the worst US natural disaster.it will be taken from here this season just wait and see!

Christy, I hope you're wrong. I can barely pay my homeowner's insurance as it is. I Know lots of people who are on the brink of disaster (money wise) because of the outrageous amount paid to the only insurance company that will take them, Citizens Insurance..
I don't know what will happen to Florida if we get hit by a hurricane of any strenght..In fact, this will apply even if a hurricane hits anywhere in the U.S.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

"The East Coast: Overall, this area of the nation did not see much precipitation this period. In the Mid-Atlantic States, the D1AH area in Virginia was expanded westward connecting to the D1AH area in Kentucky as well as northeastward as far north as Delaware. This expansion was based on CPC’s soil moisture anomaly and percentile maps, 7-day streamflow, all timeframes of HPRCC percent of normal maps from 7 to 90-day and local feedback. In North Carolina, the moderate drought (D1AH) area was expanded westward to cover most of western North Carolina with the exception of the far western corner. Also in the central part of the state, severe drought conditions (D2AH) were introduced into the Tar, Neuse and Cape Fear River Basins. This deterioration was based on local feedback, reports of low streamflow and groundwater levels and HPRCC’s 60- and 90-day percent of normal maps. In Tennessee, the abnormally dry area (D0A) was expanded westward to include the eastern half of the Cumberland Plateau. The Chickamauga Basin has a deficit of 11.06 inches, 61 percent of normal, and Melton Hill Basin was reporting 8.2 inches deficit, 66 percent of normal. Elsewhere in the Southeast, the abnormally dry (D0A) conditions along the Gulf Coast expanded across the state of Florida. Minimal amounts of rainfall have occurred across the state the entire month. Naples has received only 0.08 inch and is on track to possibly be the third driest March on record. The last rain event that impacted the state was in early February when some areas received as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain. USGS 7-day streamflow, CPC soil moisture percent of normal, HPRCC’s 7-, 14-, 30-, 60-day percent of normal maps and Florida’s State Forest Service KBDI all support this introduction. Much of this area remains under a red flag warning with several media reports of brush fires. According to media reports, Palm Bay has 12 acres charred with at least five other brush fires in Titusville, Melbourne Beach and Malabar areas. Much of this area remains under a red flag warning as of the end of the end of this drought monitoring period."


Source: http://www.cattlenetwork.com/content.as ... ntid=26451