Repeat of 2004 setup for Florida

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep... I'm sorry for sounding scary to you. It's like educated guesses.

[EDR1222]

A local surf forecaster here in the Melbourne area has been discussing the fact that a summer like Bermuda high is going to be setting up for this week. Although he is not a meterologist and was using it in a discussion about waves and a possible Southeast wind swell for the surfers, it is still interesting. I remember this occuring in 2004 as well. It will be interesting to see if this pattern becomes more persistent.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree, EDR1222!

[MiamiensisWx]

This is from the latest Miami NWS discussion.

.DISCUSSION...NO BIG CHANGES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LONGWAVE TROUGH RESIDES
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST TWO GFS RUNS
SHOWING A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER LONGWAVE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT
A FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATEST GFS RUN ACTUALLY WEAKENS HIGH NORTH OF
FRONT AND STALLS THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MIA. SO IT ALREADY
APPEARS TO BE BACKING OFF ITS ORIGINAL SOLUTION. MEX MOS GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS NO TEMPERATURE DECREASE WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH TRENDS. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE MOSTLY RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 6 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM UNTIL
NORTHERLY SWELL SUBSIDES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS
FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA MARINE AREAS.

[Scorpion]

Interestingly I have yet to see a forecast for upper 80's or 90's like many here have said. Seems like low-mid 80's will be the rule. Spring-like temps, nothing abnormal. Still, the lack of rain is bothering me.

[SouthFloridawx]

Interestingly I have yet to see a forecast for upper 80's or 90's like many here have said. Seems like low-mid 80's will be the rule. Spring-like temps, nothing abnormal. Still, the lack of rain is bothering me.

I agree the lack of rain is bothering me also.

[boca]

Lack of rain bothers me too. I think we can all count on one hand how often it rained here since Christmas. Well that took alot of thought, once and that was February.

[gatorcane]

Looks like Miami NWS has backed off some on the 90s, looking more like mid 80s. That is due to the influence of the ocean breezes expected (ESE winds at 15-20 Knots for the weekend and into next week and ocean temps are relatively cool still at 72-74F).

It's *definitely* looking alot like 2004. We cannot conclude that equates to hits from the east this year. I'll have to wait about 2 more months to see how the pattern changes (if it does) but so far we are in a 2004 setup.

[gatorcane]

Does this look like a summer-time pattern or what? Check out the winds at 11:00pm EST across South Florida. Strong out of the east:


City Sky & Wx Tmp DP RH Wind Pres Remarks
NAPLES CLEAR 62 51 67 E7 30.13S
W PALM BEACH PTCLDY 64 50 60 E12 30.14F
FT LAUDER-EXEC MOCLDY 66 49 54 E14 30.13F
FT LAUDERDALE PTCLDY 66 49 54 E13 30.13F
POMPANO BEACH MOCLDY 66 50 56 E10 30.13F
PEMBROKE PINES PTCLDY 63 50 62 E7 30.15F
OPA LOCKA PTCLDY 63 50 62 E7 30.13F
MIAMI PTCLDY 66 49 54 E10 30.14F
MIAMI BEACH N/A 68 54 60 E12 30.13F
WEST KENDALL CLEAR 60 50 69 E10 30.13F
HOMESTEAD MOCLDY 66 52 59 E7 30.13F

[gatorcane]

Miami NWS, today March 9th, alot like a 2004 spring forecast

...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE CONTROLLING SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN FACT...THIS HIGH LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUATION OF GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

[gatorcane]

Nearly identical forecast to spring 2004.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 101836
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WEATHER NEXT 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND RAIN WILL BE NEARLY NONEXISTENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DIP DOWN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH. LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. MEX MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY BIG CHANGES FOR
NOW. STILL NO SIGN OF ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST POPS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FLAG
OVERNIGHT FOR ATLANTIC WATERS AND OUTER GULF WATERS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE UNTIL SOMETIME ON
SATURDAY. REMAINDER FORECASTS OKAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN NORTHERLY
FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NO PROBLEMS/CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 70 84 / 5 5 5 5
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 83 72 83 / 5 5 5 5
MIAMI 70 83 70 84 / 5 5 5 5
NAPLES 64 84 64 83 / 5 5 5 5

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[MiamiensisWx]

boca_chris, I have a question for you in a new PM.

[Recurve]

Forget trying to weaken hurricanes -- we need to figure out how to shut off the Bermuda High. (Sorry North Carolina)

[spinfan4eva]

The way its looking tonite, I am thinking this may be more like a repeat of 1894 or 1955 with record cold temps across the state of Florida expected and freeze warnings on the 27th of march. We havent seen weather this cold on this date in 111 years in some places in Fla. I think the bermuda high has pretty much been squashed at this point.

Link to 1894 hurricane season...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Link to 1955 hurricane season
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 PM EST SUN MAR 26 2006

.SHORT TERM...ONLY FCST PROBLEMS TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE MIN TEMPS AND
FROST. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FOLLOWING VERY CLOSE TO WARMER NAM MOS
NUMBERS...WHICH ARE WITHIN ABOUT A DEGREE OF THE PRESENT FCST.
AS A RESULT...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TOUCH FREEZING IN MOST MOS
POINTS WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA. SINCE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY
LARGE AREAS BELOW THESE NUMBERS IN RURAL AREAS BENEATH THE SURFACE
HIGH...WILL LEAVE FREEZE WARNING AS IS. ONLY CHANGE TO ZONES WILL BE
TO MENTION AREAS OF FROST VS. PATCHY. GNV AND JAX SHOULD BE VERY
CLOSE TO RECORD MINS MON MORNING. THE RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS...

JAX 32 IN 1894
GNV 33 IN 1955
AMG 24 IN 1955
SSI 30 IN 1955

[wxmann_91]

The way its looking tonite, I am thinking this may be more like a repeat of 1894 or 1955 with record cold temps across the state of Florida expected and freeze warnings on the 27th of march. We havent seen weather this cold on this date in 111 years in some places in Fla. I think the bermuda high has pretty much been squashed at this point.

Link to 1894 hurricane season...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Link to 1955 hurricane season
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 PM EST SUN MAR 26 2006

.SHORT TERM...ONLY FCST PROBLEMS TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE MIN TEMPS AND
FROST. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FOLLOWING VERY CLOSE TO WARMER NAM MOS
NUMBERS...WHICH ARE WITHIN ABOUT A DEGREE OF THE PRESENT FCST.
AS A RESULT...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TOUCH FREEZING IN MOST MOS
POINTS WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA. SINCE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY
LARGE AREAS BELOW THESE NUMBERS IN RURAL AREAS BENEATH THE SURFACE
HIGH...WILL LEAVE FREEZE WARNING AS IS. ONLY CHANGE TO ZONES WILL BE
TO MENTION AREAS OF FROST VS. PATCHY. GNV AND JAX SHOULD BE VERY
CLOSE TO RECORD MINS MON MORNING. THE RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS...

JAX 32 IN 1894
GNV 33 IN 1955
AMG 24 IN 1955
SSI 30 IN 1955

Apparently they were both La Nina years... given the number of intense hurricanes.

[Hurricaneman]

That is scary that those years should show up in analogs

[Scorpion]

Not cold tonight here at all. Looks to be a return of normal soon.

[Jim Cantore]

just look at my avatar!thats what i fear!!!!by the its hurricane floyd.

If Floyd would have continued into Florida not only would it have been at about 140mph, it would have devestated the area it hit, and who knows what would have followed when it entered the gulf, or how big it would have gotten.

[jax]

It looks like its going to be a repeat of 04 for Florida warm and dry with persistent Easterly winds and high prssure at the mid and upper levels. Any system that tries to come in from the west will either weaken or get shunted NE so its going to be a long spring and an active fire season. I hope the hurricane season won't be like 2004,but it looks likely.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=82608

[SouthFloridawx]

It looks like its going to be a repeat of 04 for Florida warm and dry with persistent Easterly winds and high prssure at the mid and upper levels. Any system that tries to come in from the west will either weaken or get shunted NE so its going to be a long spring and an active fire season. I hope the hurricane season won't be like 2004,but it looks likely.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=82608

maybe if you don't read the florida threads you won't be bothered by them anymore.