What do I believe may happen this hurricane season?

[cheezyWXguy]

whoa...Im on most everybody's major list on the "what will 2006's worst hurricane be" thread so Im gonna point out what I think for a hurricane...Ill use my name, Chris for a doomsday storm that popped into my head about 4 hrs ago.

TD 4 will form in the central Carribean in early July, about 200 mi SE of Jamaca. It starts out with 35 mph and a pressure of 1004 mb. After froming about 10:00pm on July 2nd( dates may vary...duh) It is upgraded to tropical storm status and becomes TS Chris at 5am with winds of 45mph and a pressure of 998 mb. Chris is forecast to become a hurricane within 12-18 hrs and curve up and hit the western tip of Cuba as a high CAT 3 and hit the Sarasota Fl. area as major hurricane. But unexpected shear and dry air keeps Chris from strengthening for the next 24 hours, and the strength is dropped to 40 mph at 11p.m. on July 3rd. But 5 am July 4th, Chris is again strengthening with 50mph winds and a pressure of 997 mb. Still, shear and dry air are affecting chris, although they have backed off a bit. Chris remains on track and is expected to hit the western tip of Cuba as a Cat 1 hurricane of 85 mph. After Chris exits Cuba, it weakens to 80mph. It is expected to hit the Sarasota area as a CAT 2 with 105mph winds. But something happens unexpectedly. About 400 miles away form Sarasota, Chris goes through an unexpected Eyereplacement cycle. When completed the Hurricane's pressure drops 15 mb in 6 hrs. A major hurricane is born. Chris has 125mph winds and is expected to hit just north of Sarasota in the next 48 hrs, putting Sarasota in the worst part of the storm. July 6th, 2005 at 2pm. Chris is now a CAT 4 with winds of 150 mph and a pressure of 908 mb. The storm is strengthening rapidly and is forecast to become a CAT 5 hurricane in less than 12 hrs, Hitting Sarasota in 24 hrs. At 11 pm on July 6th, hris is up to 170mph and a pressure of 893 mb. July 7th. Hurricane chris is 3 hrs away from landfall 15 miles north of Sarasota and Winds are at 160 mph, but interaction w/ land knocks winds down to 150mph. and Chris makes landfall. Storm surge reaches 17 feet and winds scream thru Sarasota at 150 mph.
After doing 16billion dollars in damage to central FL, it moves of shore with winds of 125 mph. although water temps are very warm off the east coast of florida, wind shear affects the storm, and Chris weakens rapidly. July 9th- Chris dies out 300 miles north of Bermuda, due to dry air and 25 kt shear.

[Jim Cantore]

Hate to say but I think a 150mph storm would cause at least $20 Billion in central Florida

[gatorcane]

Ill use my name, Chris for a doomsday storm that popped into my head about 4 hrs ago.

That is my name

Well the erratic changes you describe are unlikely given the the NHC's forecasting accuracy nowadays...

[cheezyWXguy]

ya, I was gonna say something like that, but remember that hurricane charley, which was 145 mph, caused 15 billion, so depending on the size of the storm,it could range anywhere between 15 and 50 billion ( 50billion considering its the size of katrina, 15 if it were the size of charley)

[Jim Cantore]

Charley hit a trailer park basicly, Sarasota is more populated, and I'm almost sure Tampa would get 50+mph winds

[gatorcane]

ya, I was gonna say something like that, but remember that hurricane charley, which was 145 mph, caused 15 billion, so depending on the size of the storm,it could range anywhere between 15 and 50 billion ( 50billion considering its the size of katrins, 15 if it were the size of charley)

It all depends on many factors - size of storm, how close to populated areas it passes, speed of storm, and strength of storm. In Charley's case it was compact and moving quickly and it made landfall in a relatively unpopulated area of FL (relative to the Tampa/St.Petersburg area for example). Thus damage could easily exceed 20 billion in your example.

[gatorcane]

Charley hit a trailer park basicly, Sarasota is more populated, and I'm almost sure Tampa would get 50+mph winds

Yes, it's very possible depending upon the size of the windfield (e.g a Charley-like storm probably not) but 50mph winds won't cause major damage. The NE side of a hurricane is usually the most intense, Tampa would be on the North side and then NW side as it moves NE.

[Jim Cantore]

Charley hit a trailer park basicly, Sarasota is more populated, and I'm almost sure Tampa would get 50+mph winds

Yes, it's very possible depending upon the size of the windfield (e.g a Charley-like storm probably not) but 50mph winds won't cause major damage.

more then Charley did to Tampa though

[cheezyWXguy]

ya ur probably right, boca chris...I was down near Ft. Myers over some of spring break this year, and it did look like a scarcely populated area, compared to sarasota

[gatorcane]

ya ur probably right, boca chris...I was down near Ft. Myers over some of spring break this year, and it did look like a scarcely populated area, compared to sarasota

Of course it all depends...land value in Sarasota is generally higher than Ft. Myers but downtown Ft. Myers is more populated than downtown Sarasota...where Charley hit was the Punta Gorda area, which is relatively less populated than both of these.

[cheezyWXguy]

ya ur probably right, boca chris...I was down near Ft. Myers over some of spring break this year, and it did look like a scarcely populated area, compared to sarasota

Of course it all depends...land value in Sarasota is generally higher than Ft. Myers but downtown Ft. Myers is more populated than downtown Sarasota...where Charley hit was the Punta Gorda area, which is relatively less populated than both of these.

ya sometimes I get punta gorda and ft myers mixed up

[Jim Cantore]

Charley hit the place where it would have caused the least amount of damage basicly