Is An Active Cycle like the 1930s - 1950s Returning for FL?

[gatorcane]

I need to ask this question because there is great debate about this topic....some think that FL is returning to the active cycle that it saw in the 1930s through 1950s where FL was hit by a major hurricane on average every 2 years. That would mean FL would be getting hit regularly over the next couple of decades unlike the period from 1960-2003 where FL was largely spared (thus most Floridians have not experienced a major hurricane: only Charley and Dennis were major. Wilma came ashore as a major in the Everglades where nobody lives but was not major in the metro areas of South Florida). Others argue that 150 years of climatology record-keeping is not enough to say we have reverted back and that no trend can be identified.

I'd like to see what the board thinks.

Here is some article to read on this topic:
http://www.floridagardener.com/monthly/hurricanes.htm
http://www.ibiblio.org/uncpress/hurricanes/fl_foreword.html

[Jim Cantore]

It's been back since 2004

[Brent]

No.

Just to be different.

[Jim Cantore]

It's been back since 2004

How long it will last is anyones guess

[Hurricaneman]

I say yes and I'm not liking it one bit

[docjoe]

[quote="boca_chris"]I need to ask this question because there is great debate about this topic....some think that FL is returning to the active cycle that it saw in the 1930s through 1950s where FL was hit by a major hurricane on average every 2 years. That would mean FL would be getting hit regularly over the next couple of decades unlike the period from 1960-2003 where FL was largely spared (thus most Floridians have not experienced a major hurricane: only Charley was major out of the recents hits). Others argue that 150 years of climatology record-keeping is not enough to say we have reverted back and that no trend can be identified.

I'd like to see what the board thinks.


Charley was not the only major. Dont forget Dennis was a major and although landfall of Ivan was technically Alabama you can definitely say parts of the panhandle were hit by a major.

docjoe

[Scorpion]

Wilma was a major also...

[gatorcane]

Wilma was a major also...

Yes, technically Wilma was major when it came ashore the Everglades of SW FL (where nobody lives) but was not major in the metro areas of the SE Coast of FL.

Yes technically Dennis was also major with landfall at 120mph. I've updated the my first post.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think Florida is in for a wild ride this year last year Florida got ALOT more storms than 2004 lets see if this trend goes on.

[gtalum]

It's been back since 2004

Actually the active period has been going on since 1995. We're 10 years in.

[gatorcane]

Palm Beach Post Article, just posted:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... _0326.html

Here is an important point from this article:

And as deadly as 2005 was, meteorologists point to all the ways it could be worse this time around: No hurricane last year, not even Katrina, struck the U.S. coast at Category 5 fury. No large U.S. city took the full force of a major storm. Large stretches of the nation's densely developed East Coast have gone unscathed for decades, including New York, Philadelphia and Washington

In one previous busy patch from 1945 to 1950, hurricanes hit Florida every year — usually more than once.

[Aquawind]

Useless Poll..

The Whole ATL Basin is in an active period and Florida along with it clearly.. Florida specificaly has nothing to do with the activity other than it sticks out like a sore thumb and covers alot of shoreline..

I don't see the debate here..much less a Great Debate. Show me the debaters. All of the well known forecasters I have heard from agree to this. It was pounded down our throats last year at the Hurricane Conferences. The cycle started around 1995 and has maybe 20 more years at most is the thought. Combined with warmer SSTs than the last cycle and you start breaking records as 2005 did.

Paul

[gatorcane]

Posted: Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:51 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Useless Poll..

The Whole ATL Basin is in an active period and Florida along with it clearly.. Florida specificaly has nothing to do with the activity other than it sticks out like a sore thumb and covers alot of shoreline..

I don't see the debate here..much less a Great Debate. Show me the debaters. All of the well known forecasters I have heard from agree to this. It was pounded down our throats last year at the Hurricane Conferences. The cycle started around 1995 and has maybe 20 more years at most is the thought. Combined with warmer SSTs than the last cycle and you start breaking records as 2005 did.

Paul

Paul the debate is not if we are in an active cycle, it is if we are in an active cycle AND FL will be hit like it was hit the 1930s through 1950s...perhaps the poll question is misleading but I explain more in my first post. Thus, the debate is over the frequency of FL hits not the frequency of activity.

[Aquawind]

You still don't get it...

Paul

[gatorcane]

You still don't get it...

Paul

I know there has been an active cycle since 1995. Starting in 2004, FL starting getting hit. Will it be like this until the active cycle is over? It's a debate because while there is an active cycle, will more paths start to go towards FL as they did in the 1930s -1950s? The path patterns are clearly a debate because we could easily have an active period but FL could largely be spared. These path patterns are related to peristent long wave patterns such as the Bermuda High - which was the reason FL was hit so many times from the east before (although South Florida sees more hits from the south).

I can't say it any clearer than that. This poll is not useless.

[gatorcane]

bump

[Aquawind]

I still don't see the debaters who think florida will be hit less during this active period than the last active period. It's the whole basin not just FLORIDA.. Anomalies within this period will happen as they have since the begining of time. As you I am sure noticed I am not a fan of polls either way..let that be known..lol But Vague poorly written statements and polls are not what got this board so popular.

FYI.. I would suggest that you not try calling me or anyone else out disrespectfully by first name again or you will find me following your posts with critical analysis even more so in the future.. It's so easy when they are so vague and poorly stated that you are leaving the door open for not only me but anyone else to try and get to the true meaning and facts of your posts. That goes for anyone one his board and not just you. Your not alone I have been there.

I will finish my response in the PM you just sent me out of respect for you.

Paul

[CHRISTY]

[MiamiensisWx]

Look how the Gulf of Mexico has now cooled since yesterday...

[CHRISTY]

this is because we just had a pretty strong front for this time of year go threw!but the temps will be on the rebound before you know it.....i think that was it for the cool stuff for us in florida until november!we will see.