Hurricanes and Ontario

[conestogo_flood]

Okay, I suppose this is a dumb question, but what is the risk of hurricanes striking Ontario?

I was digging around, and I remember in 2003 hurricane Isabel hit southeastern Ontario as a tropical storm, before being downgraded to a tropical depression over me.

Also, hurricane Hazel hit Toronto in the the 1950s.

While browsing the New York state website a while ago, I recall it stating something like "whether you live in New York City or Buffalo, you still need to be prepared for hurricanes". I am only 1 hour west of Buffalo.

So anywho, also, I don't know where I read it, but during the summer I was looking through the CHC. Well, it gave averages for hurricanes in Canada, and it said southern Ontario experiences a still tropical storm every 11 years.

So, what is the risk for Ontario to be hit? How could we be hit, which directions could the canes come from? Can they hit like Delaware head-on and move up here, or do the canes move north and skid the land. And do what Isabel did and go through North Carolina to Ontario.

Gosh, I'm confused now!

[conestogo_flood]

Southern Ontario Top Ten Tropical Cyclones (1886 -1998)

Year Name Pressure Wind Rating Month Day
1954 Hazel - 60 TS 10 16
1893 1893I - 60 TS 10 14
1957 Audrey - 50 TS 6 29
1938 1938D 988 45 TS 9 22
1995 Opal 991 40 TS 10 6
1903 1903D - 40 TS 9 17
1900 1900A - 40 TS 9 12
1989 Hugo 988 35 TS 9 23
1928 1928D - 35 TS 9 20
1923 1923D - 35 TS 10 25

[conestogo_flood]

Northern Ontario Top Ten Tropical Cyclones (1886 - 1998)

Year Name Pressure Wind Rating Month Day
1954 Hazel - 50 TS 10 16
1961 Carla - 30 TD 9 14
1955 Connie - 25 TD 8 15
1923 1923F - 25 TD 10 19
1896 1896A - 25 TD 7 11

[tropicana]

Plus also Southern Ontario gets affected by the remnants of Tropical storms or hurricanes quite a few times.

These are a few that come to mind as I have kept records...I'm sure there were a couple others though:-

DEPRESSION OPAL... Oct 5-6 1995
OPAL dumped more rain on the area in 24 hours than usuall falls in the whole month of October. At 78.6mm, Thurs night Oct 5 was Metro Toronto's wettest October day since Hurricane Hazel in 1954, when 121mm fell in a 24 hr period. The month's usual rainfall is 62mm.


DEPRESSION FRAN... Sep 7 1996

FRAN produced windy, rainy conditions all through the day. In 21 hours from 5am Sat Sep 7 to 2am Sun Sep 8, over 66mm of rain doused Toronto.

DEPRESSION LILI... Oct 4 2000

Though not truly tropical as LILI became absorbed by a larger LOW pressure over the Northern Great Lakes, it still produced south gusts in excess of 75km/h in the Greater Toronto area, boosting temperatures to a warm 24C 75F, but the storm only dropped 5-10mm in the area.


DEPRESSION ISABEL... Sep 19 2003

After pounding the US East coast, ISABEL breezed into Ontario this Friday Sep 19 pushing before it enough doomsayer-generated hot air to float a weather balloon into the straotsphere. Yes, it was windy (65km/h gusts in Toronto). Certainly it rained (32mm for a Sep 19 daily rain record in Toronto). But after forecasters warned that ISABEL was on same deadly track as HURRICANE HAZEL which on Oct 15 1954 killed 81 Torontonians and left 4000 homeless, the best the Hurricane Center in Halifax, Nova Scotia could come up with was "no more fearsome than a typical thunderstorm".

Still, many took the day off of school and work, being a Friday and all. Thousands of homes lost power, ETobicoke was hard hit, but most outages lasted just a few hours. Windsurfers took to the water off Cherry Beach, Toronto People rode the waves off of Ashbridge's Bay. Whitby harbor took on a carnival atmosphere as scores of people walked along the pier.

DEPRESSION KATRINA... Aug 31 2005

Remnants of Katrina raced across Southern Ontario this Wed Aug 31, depositing 25-30mm of rain on Toronto. Heavier rain fell in the Niagara region as well as along the Eastern Shores of lake Ontario.
By the evening, Katrina's remants were well north and east of Ontario, up in Southern Quebec and was absorbed by a frontal boudary, with a true circulation no longer discernable.
Still, it was eerie knowing one of the greatest storms of all times just a few days before passed through.

-justin-

[CrazyC83]

That's quite far inland and far north, but storms do have a way to travel the long way north...some coming out of the Gulf crossing 10 states. People in regions like the lower Midwest need to learn more - if a storm stalls over the area, it could look like New Orleans after Katrina in the Ohio Valley, for instance...

You have to go west to at least Illinois or Iowa to be completely clear of tropical activity...

[CrazyC83]

DEPRESSION OPAL... Oct 5-6 1995
OPAL dumped more rain on the area in 24 hours than usuall falls in the whole month of October. At 78.6mm, Thurs night Oct 5 was Metro Toronto's wettest October day since Hurricane Hazel in 1954, when 121mm fell in a 24 hr period. The month's usual rainfall is 62mm.

Actually, winds were at tropical storm strength, and stateside over Ohio were nearly hurricane strength.

DEPRESSION FRAN... Sep 7 1996

FRAN produced windy, rainy conditions all through the day. In 21 hours from 5am Sat Sep 7 to 2am Sun Sep 8, over 66mm of rain doused Toronto.

DEPRESSION LILI... Oct 4 2000

Though not truly tropical as LILI became absorbed by a larger LOW pressure over the Northern Great Lakes, it still produced south gusts in excess of 75km/h in the Greater Toronto area, boosting temperatures to a warm 24C 75F, but the storm only dropped 5-10mm in the area.

Absorbed by an extratropical low long before reaching the area - it doesn't count in my book.

DEPRESSION ISABEL... Sep 19 2003

After pounding the US East coast, ISABEL breezed into Ontario this Friday Sep 19 pushing before it enough doomsayer-generated hot air to float a weather balloon into the straotsphere. Yes, it was windy (65km/h gusts in Toronto). Certainly it rained (32mm for a Sep 19 daily rain record in Toronto). But after forecasters warned that ISABEL was on same deadly track as HURRICANE HAZEL which on Oct 15 1954 killed 81 Torontonians and left 4000 homeless, the best the Hurricane Center in Halifax, Nova Scotia could come up with was "no more fearsome than a typical thunderstorm".

That was helped by the fact it was weakened from Cat 5 to Cat 2 before landfall. There was nothing stopping Isabel on its northward track until it converged with the extratropical low which set up the nightmare collision forecast (at about 55°N latitude - over Hudson Bay - early on September 20)...it could have been a 12 to 15-state disaster if it made landfall at full strength and made the collision much farther south. There is little impact that can be made at those latitudes, since it is almost uninhabited (less than 5,000 people in the area, mostly Indians).

DEPRESSION KATRINA... Aug 31 2005

Remnants of Katrina raced across Southern Ontario this Wed Aug 31, depositing 25-30mm of rain on Toronto. Heavier rain fell in the Niagara region as well as along the Eastern Shores of lake Ontario.
By the evening, Katrina's remants were well north and east of Ontario, up in Southern Quebec and was absorbed by a frontal boudary, with a true circulation no longer discernable.
Still, it was eerie knowing one of the greatest storms of all times just a few days before passed through.

The center of circulation was actually over New York and Pennsylvania at the time. It was absorbed about 6 hours later.

Often ignored: Frances and Ivan - both primarily stateside but dumped enormous rain on the southern St. Lawrence Valley, causing significant flooding (part of the same flooding in the Appalachians).

[conestogo_flood]

I think it was Dennis, that dropped 116mm of rain here in KW in July.

BTW on August 19, 2005 severe thunderstorms dropped 100-175mm in just over an hour on the Toronto area.

That compares to 53 mm in one hour from Hurricane Hazel in 1954. At Environment Canada's Downsview offices, 130 mm of rain fell - 100 mm in less than an hour - an unprecedented amount for any storm in Toronto, and easily greater than the one in one hundred years storm. The deluge flooded two floors of the Downsview building, prompting employees to huddle in the basement and interior auditorium in order to ride out the storm. A block or two to the north in Thornhill, a weather watcher emptied her rain gauge at 175 mm. Around the city, torrential rains snarled traffic and stranded drivers. Fire services responded to more than 1,000 calls. In one dramatic scene, marine services personnel rescued four people who fell into the fast-moving currents of the Don River.

[Aquawind]

I think you need to live on the permafrost to avoid possible TD conditions at least..lol. And then again those nasty blizzards/ice storms can kick a TDs or TS's butt once inland imho.

Paul

[Hurricaneman]

Hazel was an anomoly in Ontario

[Extremeweatherguy]

Once a hurricane gets to Ontario it is not really a true "hurricane" anymore anyway. Once you lose to the tropical influence, it turns into a cold core system and would never really feel the same as a hurricane in the south. I don't think Ontario will ever have to worry about a "true" 100mph+ hurricane.

[tropicana]

I think it was Dennis, that dropped 116mm of rain here in KW in July.

BTW on August 19, 2005 severe thunderstorms dropped 100-175mm in just over an hour on the Toronto area.
At Environment Canada's Downsview offices, 130 mm of rain fell - 100 mm in less than an hour - an unprecedented amount for any storm in Toronto
A block or two to the north in Thornhill, a weather watcher emptied her rain gauge at 175 mm. Around the city, torrential rains snarled traffic and stranded drivers. Fire services responded to more than 1,000 calls. In one dramatic scene, marine services personnel rescued four people who fell into the fast-moving currents of the Don River.

YES! What a storm that day! I was in North Toronto at that very time, and truly I have never ever seen such a deluge like I saw that day. I can certainly believe that report of 175mm in Thornhill (I was very close to this area) thats about 7 inches of rain...and most of this fell in an hour!! Lightning flashed like a disco outside, visibility was ZERO.

A day I'd never ever forget.

-justin-

[CrazyC83]

August 19 had nothing to do with any tropical system though...and even far northern Europe is affected from hurricanes from time to time (at least one last year reached there - and that is above 60°N latitude - about the same as Alaska)

[conestogo_flood]

I know. Just on the topic of Hazel and all the rains.