NWS MIA Confirms a Strong Bermuda High, a Precursor?

[MiamiensisWx]

Listen to the latest from the Miami NWS...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 191836
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2006

...VERY WARM TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...
...BETTER RAIN CHANCE LATE THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER AIR NEXT WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS OVER THE CWA TO BE EASTERLY. THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE CWA ALONG
WITH SOME CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST BRINING IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE CWA.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE CWA AND BRING IN SOME
VERY WARM AIR TO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY
SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS...AND MID 80S OVER THE METRO AREAS.

THE VERY WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AS THE WINDS OVER
THE CWA WILL BE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOME
AREAS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST COULD
APPROACH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGHS FOR THE NORTH INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS FOR TUESDAY.

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 91 - 2003
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 91 - 1965
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 92 - 2003
CLEWISTON 92 - 1977
CANAL POINT 94 - 1977


THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE IS 10 PERCENT AT
BEST.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR A LONG
WHILE...WITH POPS IN THE CHANCE CAT FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE
THIS WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S...WHILE LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...DURING THE LAST THREE LONG
RANGE MODELS RUNS THE HIGHS AND LOWS EACH TIME HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
BIT LOWER FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SO STAY TUNE FOR
LATER INFORMATION FOR THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS FOR THIS WEEKEND FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI.

[gatorcane]

I expect this last shot of cooler air into Florida. It typically happens in March like this. But after this shot, I expect only weak cold fronts and temps to be in the 80s and above after that.

[gatorcane]

latest discussion still showing big ridge but a little breakdown (finally) with some cooler air, HOWEVER, it builds back in quickly after. Quite a longwave pattern we are seeing. Any end in sight?

00
FXUS62 KMFL 200800
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 AM EST MON MAR 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...BACK IN THE WARM AIR TODAY AS BASICALLY HIGH PRESSURE
IS OVER THE AREA. THE STORM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD MOVE EAST
TODAY AND START TO BRING ITS COLD FRONT OUR WAY. THIS FRONT IS THE
ONE THAT SHOULD IN OUR ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY
UNDER THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
GULF OF MEXICO. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT SO DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN WHEN IT MOVES OVER US ON WEDNESDAY.
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SMALL FRONTAL WAVE TO DEVELOP ON IT ON
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AND DEEPEN.
THIS LOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
ZONES AND INTO THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. IT SHOULD ALSO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN QUITE SOME TIME.
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL MOTION OF THE FORECAST WAVE THIS SHOULD NOW
BE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ONCE THIS FRONT HAS PASSED WE WILL
HAVE THE COLDER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVE INTO
OUR ZONES AND REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY LARGE SURFACE HIGH. THIS
AIR WILL HAVE HAD SEVERAL DAYS TO MODIFY BEFORE IT GETS HERE HOWEVER
WE SHOULD DEFINITELY NOTICE A CHANGE WITH THE MINIMUMS GETTING INTO
THE FORTIES OVER THE INTERIOR.

[SouthFloridawx]

Boca_Chris I have started a thread in the Weather Attic Forum here on storm2k for weather observations and forcast discussions.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=82437

[Scorpion]

Very SIGNIFICANT cool shot coming up. I am surprised at this. Last year we did not get such a front this late.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the latest Miami NWS discussion...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 211327
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
827 AM EST TUE MAR 21 2006

.UPDATE...THE 12Z SOUNDING ALONG WITH ACARS DATA AND THE VWP SHOW
WINDS ARE 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 1000 FT THIS MORNING. THIS MOMENTUM IS
STARTING TO MIX DOWN. UPDATED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES
LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITIABLE
WATER STILL LOW...ONLY AT 0.92 INCHES...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H8.
RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIM TO NONE THROUGH THE DAY. NO FURTHER CHANGES
PLANNED.

MARINE...MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE MORNING FORECAST TO INTRODUCE A
CAUTION STATEMENT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WINDS THERE ARE NOW IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. BOUY 14
OVER THE GULF NORTH OF KEY WEST IS STILL ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
SO...AS ARE NEARBY COASTAL OBSERVATIONS. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ARE SHOWING 15 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS INTO
THE LOWER 20S. CAUTION STATEMENT LOOKS GOOD AND NOT PLANNING FURTHER
CHANGES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. IS MOVING
SLOWLY THIS WAY. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER OUR ZONES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. WE STILL EXPECT IT TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER
OUR ZONES ON WEDNESDAY. STILL LIMITED ON THE MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND ONE INCH. SO PROBABLY NOTHING IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT INITIALLY. WE ARE DEPENDING ON THE
UPPER WAVE THAT IS OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. TO DEVELOP A WAVE
ON THE FRONT AND INDUCE SOME SHOWERS IN THE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONTAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH OUR ZONES BY THAT NIGHT. SO
OVER THE WEEKEND WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER US FOR
MONTHS. THIS SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
MONDAYAND RETURN US TO EASTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW THE
FRONT TO BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AND WE COULD HAVE SOME EAST COAST
SHOWERS AS A RESULT. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL WARM UP AND THE
HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB.

&&

.MARINE...THE ONLY PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
WILL BE ON THURSDAY WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LEAVING OUR PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELATIVELY WEAK. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE EITHER A CAUTION
OR ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO REAL PROBLEMS UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
HUMDITIES WILL FALL BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[gatorcane]

folks this ridge is not going anywhere...and the NHC knows it....notice how they comment on it in their discussions (thanks CapeVerdeWave)....this is what I think it will mean for us:

1) drier Spring earlier, then Tropical Waves moving through later
2) Stronger Easterlies
3) warmer temps
4) Hurricanes ?

We saw the above normal temps today all across South Florida with some places hitting 90F (e.g. Ft. Lauderdale Exec)...and it's only mid-March...

get ready for a ride this summer for hurricane season here.

[boca]

agreed

[AJC3]

Very SIGNIFICANT cool shot coming up. I am surprised at this. Last year we did not get such a front this late.

There were a couple significant cold frontal passages last year well into April.

In fact, the latest significant cooldown for the treasure coast last year took place more than one month after today's date. An unusually strong cold front on April 24th dropped highs along the treasure coast to the low-mid 70s and lows into the mid 40s the following day.

4/25/05
Vero Beach low: 44 high: 72
West Palm Beach: low: 50 high: 76

[ROCK]

Boca_Chris I have started a thread in the Weather Attic Forum here on storm2k for weather observations and forcast discussions.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=82437

I agree this thread should be moved to Weather Attic. 11 pages of FL obs and discussion and how that relates to the upcoming TS season is way to much.

[gatorcane]

I agree this thread should be moved to Weather Attic. 11 pages of FL obs and discussion and how that relates to the upcoming TS season is way to much.

Actually I find this thread very relevant...and we will be talking about this unusually strong ridge well into hurricane season I believe - so the attic is not a good place for it.

I wouldn't mind if you move it though

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest Miami NWS discussion...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 220317
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 PM EST TUE MAR 21 2006

NO REAL CHANGES NECESSARY EITHER TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE NOR THE
DETAILED DISCUSSION BELOW...AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH RADAR DATA INDICATING ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER MOST OF THE STATE.

60

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IS EMERGING PLAINS STATES AND OPENING UP
INTO A TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AS AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
LOCAL AREA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PAUCITY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY FORECAST IN THE SHORT RUN.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY WITH SEVERAL
DEGREES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOS. WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTH...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE
LAKE DURING THE EARLY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LOW IS SPINNING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
STATES AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTS A 1004 MB LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOW THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PULLING THE SURFACE LOW EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCE POPS TO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW THE UPPER TROUGH. MEX GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
LOWER...WITH HIGHS AROUND SEVEN DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS
INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.MARINE...15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. WILL KEEP THE CAUTION STATEMENT OUT FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BUT VEER NORTHERLY AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THIS
WILL IMPEDE THE SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FEET OVER PALM BEACH WATERS
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH ONSET OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE
ECMWF...PUSH THE LOW NORTH OF BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND. THIS
TRAJECTORY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SWELL REACHING PALM BEACH WATERS AND
THE WAVEWATCH SHOWS NO CORRESPONDING SWELL THIS WEEKEND. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PATCHY INLAND FOG TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO PROBLEMS
TIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN DRIER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH. MAY SEE
AFTERNOON RH`S DIP TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 66 82 63 81 / 5 5 15 45
FORT LAUDERDALE 68 84 69 82 / 5 5 15 40
MIAMI 69 84 67 83 / 5 5 15 35
NAPLES 67 80 61 80 / 5 5 15 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CHRISTENSEN

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=82437

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest Miami NWS discussion...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 221417
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
915 AM EST WED MAR 22 2006

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE
CURRENTLY BASED ON DEW POINT GRADIENT. THE FRONT IS MAKE VERY SLOW
PROGRESS SOUTH AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN ZONAL. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ARE BURNING OFF CURRENTLY...AND
SURFACE WINDS ARE STEADY NORTH TO NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND ARE POISED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE UPDATE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS...FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE.

FIRE UPDATE...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE DAY WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES OVER PALM BEACH...GLADES...AND HENDRY COUNTIES. DEW
POINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. SOME OF THIS
AIR WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEW
POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY UNAFFECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE AFFECT OF DROPPING DEW POINTS WITH RISING DAYTIME HIGHS COULD
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE NEXT QUESTION...IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE THE
REQUIRED DURATION. WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BUY MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR AREAS AROUND THE LAKE..DEPENDING ON
HOW THINGS SHAPE UP.
CHRISTENSEN

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO OUR ZONES TODAY BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY HERE TONIGHT. SOME FOG HAS FORMED OVER OUR
INTERIOR ZONES HOWEVER VISIBILITIES ARE STILL RELATIVELY GOOD. SO
WILL JUST LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG UNDER OUR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. GPSMET FOR MIAMI STILL HAS US FAIRLY DRY WHILE REST OF
OBSERVATIONS HAD SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEFORE
THEY STOPPED COMING IN. SO WILL LEAVE THE RAIN CHANCE OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING. WE HAVE THE UPPER WAVE OVER NEW MEXICO MOVING EASTWARD
AND WE STILL EXPECT THIS TO CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY FRIDAY. THIS UPPER WAVE
AND THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT
THAT HIGH. AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST IN THE ATLANTIC THE NOTICEABLY
COOLER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE
INTO OUR ZONES AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
OUR COOL SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WE SHOULD
START WARMING BACK UP THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND WE ARE IN A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH. BY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
THE WINDS SHOULD TAKE US TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD REMAIN
IN THIS CONDITION UNTIL ABOUT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO REAL PROBLEMS UNTIL THE COLD AIR MOVES IN ON THE
WEEKEND. THEN A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD PUT
US BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Scorpion]

True, I did forget how cold April was last year. I don't see it happening this year. This should be the last decent cooldown.

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest Miami NWS discussion...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 241930
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EST FRI MAR 24 2006

.DISCUSSION....SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT S NOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZES PERSIST OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THAT MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR SOUTH AS CLOUD COVER IS GRADUALLY CLEARING OVER THE AREA.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AN CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AROUND THESE SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10 TO EVEN 15
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATIC NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL WITH MOISTURE VALUES DROPPING.

LOOKING AHEAD...THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKEND AND THEN
GRADUALLY MODIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND BRINGS
MODERATING ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. RECOVER MAY BE SLOW
HOWEVER...EXTENDED GFSX ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOWS
TEMPERATURES NOT REACHING NORMAL VALUES UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK ONCE THE WINDS VEER
ONSHORE.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM. IT`S LIKELY THAT AS WINDS VEER MORE NORTHERLY...SEAS
WILL INCREASE OVER GULF STREAM WATERS WITHIN 20 NM.
MOREOVER...WINDS COULD BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS WITHIN 20 AS WELL.
WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT...AS WELL AS FOR THE
GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER GULF STREAM WATERS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR MASS TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. RH`S WILL DIP BELOW THRESHOLDS TOMORROW AND PROBABLY
SUNDAY. RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 51 69 46 68 / 0 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 53 71 47 71 / 0 0 10 10
MIAMI 52 71 50 71 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 48 65 46 66 / 0 0 10 5

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NMTO
THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER
INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE,
FL OUT 20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH,
FL EXTENDING FROM20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

99

[JonathanBelles]

that rain keeps getting away from us here in tampa

[wxmann_91]

that rain keeps getting away from us here in tampa

you had your "once in a 500 yr flood" back in February

[gatorcane]

True...South Florida got some good rain and what a powerful cold front....40s in South Florida for two days straight and it's almost April??? Well, if you think about it we have had some pretty powerful fronts move into FL the past couple of years even late into Spring. So honestly, it means nothing regarding the upcoming season.

[CHRISTY]

iam thinking as soon as next tuesday temps are going to rebound from here on out by late april sea surface temps will be different and not to speak of may, june and the coming months (this will be the last of the cool weather for the southeast ) so lets enjoy this last cool weekend because come next weekend it will gone,and the real warming begins for the atlantic,and surrounding areas.