NCEP 3/16 Wetter than normal for Florida Aug/Sept/Oct

[Vortex]

Based on the expectation of a greater than normal chance of rainfall in the SE, specifically Florida it would give credence that NCEP is expecting Tropical activity to be above normal in this location during the peak of the season


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... 5_prcp.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

thanks for posting... Do any other of the long range models show something similar?

[dhweather]

I don't think that is necessarily true. I don't believe that NCEP is going to
use tropical cyclone activity in their precipitation forecasts.

If nothing hits Florida, then what?

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't think that is necessarily true. I don't believe that NCEP is going to
use tropical cyclone activity in their precipitation forecasts.

If nothing hits Florida, then what?

I was not saying that I agree that tropical activity would but, I was wondering if there were any other models that show above average precipitation during those months.

[dhweather]

Sorry, my reply was to the original post.

You can probably check the weather channel or weather underground and get their forecasts.

[wxmann_91]

Nobody can forecast so many months out and be even close to close to what will happen.

[MiamiensisWx]

What are they basing that information on? I'm just interested.

[gatorcane]

wetter than normal would have to mean they expect a good dose of tropical waves...which I am also predicting this year by the way.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is too early to say how wet or dry conditions will be; also, even if the ridge is not too strong or further east, late-season storms can still strike Florida.

[gatorcane]

A wetter than normal SE can really mean only one thing:

STRONG BERMUDA HIGH is forecasted.

The reason is that most of the rain in the SE US in the months of July - September is primarily from afternoon/evenings T-storms that feed off of the deep SE pump of moisture from the Bermuda High.

That is what I think they mean....

With a strong High means increased chances of tropical wave activity....which brings more rain to FL typically in August/September

The orientation of the High is key for the SE US...because it could mean the difference between storms going to the Carolinas vs storms going through the Straits of Florida. Either way could still mean increased moisture and rain for the SE