Plains snowstorm: 18-21 March

[senorpepr]

you know what...stop hugging the NWS. As of 8 AM I have almost 8 Inches. Looks like your wrong buddy. Alll the TV MEt's are predicting a additional 14 inches of snow. NWS seams to be always scared to puout those kind of amounts.

Thundersnow guy later today with rates of 1-3 inches a hour!

It's not called, "hugging the NWS," it's called using meteorological reasoning. How about you try that. If I wasn't mistaken, you said, "we'll get 6-10 inches Saturday and Sunday." You know what... looks like you're wrong buddy. We only had a 1-2 inches. You also said, "we won't get any dry-slotting," but we sure did. Don't quit your day job -- if you even have one.

Furthermore, let me remind you that TV meteorologists, while I respect them, tend to overuse models in their forecasting. They don't have time to study the meteorological aspects like other meteorologists do. Additionally, I wasn't "solely" following the NWS. I happened to work with several hundred meteorologists who many said the SAME thing.

Moreover, while the western side of town did get more snow, (ie 6 inches in Papillion. I will disregard your 8 inches at this time since I can't trust your observing skills any further than I can throw you -- I mean... have you even been trained in weather observing?) the eastern side didn't. Both the "official" reporting station at Eppley (KOMA) and Offutt AFB (KOFF) both reported only 2-3 inches of snow.

Ohh... did you bother to read any additional statements from any meteorological institution? Did you see the thunderstorms developing to our south? Don't expect thundersnow. Don't expect 1-3" per hour. The chances of that happening are around the same as Gilbert Gottfried speaking in a normal tone.

Finally... learn some respect. There are much better ways to converse in an online message board. I'm sorry you're not getting the 50 inches of snow you want. I'm sorry that my meteorological reasoning is taking the excitement from your face. You know... I'd love to go to your job (once again... if you even have one) and heckle you.

[senorpepr]

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON 
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. 
 
            ..REMARKS.. 
 
0727 AM     SNOW             RANDOLPH                42.38N 97.36W   
03/20/2006  M3.3 INCH        CEDAR              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
0727 AM     SNOW             HARLAN                  41.65N 95.33W   
03/20/2006  M0.4 INCH        SHELBY             IA   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
0727 AM     HEAVY SNOW       PIERCE                  42.20N 97.53W   
03/20/2006  M6.0 INCH        PIERCE             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
0727 AM     SNOW             RED OAK                 41.01N 95.22W   
03/20/2006  M2.5 INCH        MONTGOMERY         IA   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
0727 AM     HEAVY SNOW       FRIEND                  40.65N 97.28W   
03/20/2006  M3.0 INCH        SALINE             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
            STORM TOTAL THUS FAR 5 INCHES 
 
0727 AM     HEAVY SNOW       OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W   
03/20/2006  M6.0 INCH        DOUGLAS            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
            FLORENCE AREA 
 
0727 AM     SNOW             HICKMAN                 40.62N 96.63W   
03/20/2006  M3.3 INCH        LANCASTER          NE   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
0727 AM     HEAVY SNOW       FREMONT                 41.44N 96.49W   
03/20/2006  M6.0 INCH        DODGE              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
0727 AM     HEAVY SNOW       GRETNA                  41.14N 96.24W   
03/20/2006  M5.5 INCH        SARPY              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
0727 AM     HEAVY SNOW       FORT CALHOUN            41.46N 96.03W   
03/20/2006  M5.7 INCH        WASHINGTON         NE   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
            4 WEST 
 
0727 AM     SNOW             OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W   
03/20/2006  M4.0 INCH        DOUGLAS            NE   OFFICIAL NWS OBS 
 
            EPPLEY AIRFIELD 
 
0727 AM     SNOW             MAPLETON                42.17N 95.79W   
03/20/2006  M1.4 INCH        MONONA             IA   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
0727 AM     HEAVY SNOW       ALBION                  41.69N 98.00W   
03/20/2006  M7.0 INCH        BOONE              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
            12 INCHES STORM TOTAL THUS FAR 
 
0727 AM     SNOW             BLOOMFIELD              42.60N 97.65W   
03/20/2006  M4.6 INCH        KNOX               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
0727 AM     SNOW             OFFUTT AFB              41.11N 95.92W   
03/20/2006  M2.2 INCH        SARPY              NE   OTHER FEDERAL     
 
0727 AM     HEAVY SNOW       NORFOLK                 42.03N 97.42W   
03/20/2006  M8.5 INCH        MADISON            NE   OFFICIAL NWS OBS 
 
0727 AM     SNOW             LINCOLN                 40.82N 96.69W   
03/20/2006  M3.0 INCH        LANCASTER          NE   OFFICIAL NWS OBS 
 
            LINCOLN AIRPORT 
 
0727 AM     SNOW             VALLEY                  41.31N 96.35W   
03/20/2006  M5.3 INCH        DOUGLAS            NE   OFFICIAL NWS OBS 
 
            NWS OFFICE

0820 AM     SNOW             ELKHORN                 41.28N 96.24W   
03/20/2006  M6.2 INCH        DOUGLAS            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE   

0902 AM     SNOW             UNDERWOOD               41.39N 95.68W   
03/20/2006  M4.5 INCH        POTTAWATTAMIE      IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

0944 AM     SNOW             4 NW ALBION             41.73N 98.06W   
03/20/2006  M15.0 INCH       BOONE              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER   
 
            LORETTO, NE

1000 AM     SNOW             3 S BELLEVUE            41.11N 95.92W   
03/20/2006  M5.0 INCH        SARPY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER   
 
            LA PLATTE,NE

1122 AM     SNOW             WEEPING WATER           40.87N 96.14W   
03/20/2006  M5.0 INCH        CASS               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

[senorpepr]

Thundersnow guy later today with rates of 1-3 inches a hour!

Where's the thundersnow, Craig? Where's the 1-3 inches an hour, Craig? Looks like that dry slot over Omaha is making you look foolish. After a little snow earlier this morning, we've had a whopping trace since around 8am.

[terstorm1012]

Senorpepr, just wanted to say I think you've done a good job with the forecasting of this storm.

[senorpepr]

Senorpepr, just wanted to say I think you've done a good job with the forecasting of this storm.

Thank you for your comments... I appreciate them.


On the topic of snow amounts of eastern Nebraska...

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...

.A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO AN AREA FROM
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
BY TONIGHT.

DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INTO
WESTERN IOWA AND PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS DRY AIR
WILL TEND TO LIMIT SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
///snip///


[plainsman]

id say the best chance of thundersnow would be in the panhandle of Texas, Oklahoma, and south-central kansas.... where theres more instability in the atmosphere.... anybody from the panhandle of Texas on here, Amarillo,Texas or wichita, kansas? Winter-Storm warnings are up for the panhandle of Texas and the whole state of kansas.. ill check on the reports for that region of any thundersnow... man i want to drive 5 and a half hours northwest to check out the action....

[senorpepr]

Gage, Oklahoma, is currently reporting thundersnow.

KGAG 202145Z AUTO 32020G30KT 1/2SM TSSN FG BKN001 BKN006 OVC012 01/00 A2952 RMK AO2 PK WND 29047/2113 WSHFT 2111 LTG DSNT SE AND S

[senorpepr]

Wow... just looking at some of KGAG's obs...

A squall, some rain, heavy rainshowers with thunderstorms, freezing rain with thunderstorms, and then snow with thunderstorms. Wow...


SPECI KGAG 202145Z AUTO 32020G30KT 1/2SM TSSN FG BKN001 BKN006 OVC012 01/00 A2952 RMK AO2 PK WND 29047/2113 WSHFT 2111 LTG DSNT SE AND S TSB15RAB23E38FZRAB38E42SNB42 P0012;
SPECI KGAG 202139Z AUTO 32021G32KT 3/4SM TSFZRA BR FEW001 BKN006 OVC021 01/00 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 29047/2113 WSHFT 2111 LTG DSNT SE AND S TSB15RAB23E38FZRAB38 P0008;
SPECI KGAG 202134Z AUTO 32026G32KT 1 1/2SM +TSRA BR SCT004 BKN008 OVC030 01/00 A2950 RMK AO2 PK WND 29047/2113 WSHFT 2111 VIS 1/4V5 LTG DSNT SE AND S TSB15RAB23 CIG 006V011 P0005;
SPECI KGAG 202125Z AUTO 34026G45KT 9SM VCTS -RA BKN006 BKN030 03/02 A2947 RMK AO2 PK WND 29047/2113 WSHFT 2111 LTG DSNT S AND SW TSB15RAB23 CIG 004V010 PRESRR P0001;
SPECI KGAG 202115Z AUTO 28040G47KT 10SM VCTS SQ FEW006 BKN030 BKN050 07/03 A2944 RMK AO2 PK WND 29047/2113 LTG DSNT S AND SW TSB15 PRESRR P0001;

[senorpepr]

Well… taking a look at the GFS, looking like the some more isolated rounds of snow, with some possibly impressive rounds after sunset. By that time, the dry air over Omaha should begin to erode as a heavy line of snow moistens the atmosphere. It should be noted, however, that the models have been over-forecasting this event so far.

Here’s the GFS solution…

Code: Select all

 41.12N 95.90W
OUTPUT FROM GFS 00Z MAR 20 2006
                                             FL150   FL200   FL250
TTTPTT DPR1R2R3 VVVLI PSQNHDDFF HHSTT1T2T3 W TB  IC  TB  IC  TB  IC  TCCCLB
KOFF// 98798490 -1313 210130915 4201009796   NEG LGT NEG LGT NEG NEG //////
003004 98769598 08714 210121011 4201019796 S NEG MOD LGT LGT LGT NEG 100045
006008 98737777 06116 210110709 4101019896 S NEG MOD LGT LGT NEG NEG 100040
009007 99869393 06317 200100813 4000999795 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100041
012017 99939994 02516 190050815 4099999695 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100043
015005 99909893 -1715 180020817 4099999595 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100050
018007 99909697 11917 159930717 3999999594 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100050
021063 99939998 10223 149920516 3899989593 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100033
024020 98929998 05722 159930420 3598989493 S LGT MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100037
027016 98939997 08519 169940320 3297969393 S LGT MOD LGT LGT NEG NEG 100031
030012 98929997 04318 169970416 3097969392 S LGT MOD MOD LGT LGT NEG 100037
033006 97939999 06019 180000313 2996969291 S MOD MOD MOD LGT LGT NEG 100034
036005 97939998 05419 200070211 2996959291 S LGT LGT LGT LGT LGT NEG 100033
039003 97919994 -1121 240190210 2896959191 S MOD LGT LGT NEG LGT NEG 100031
042000 98919986 -2520 260240208 3198969291   LGT LGT LGT LGT NEG NEG 100037
045001 98909983 -0221 250243608 3399979391 S MOD LGT NEG NEG NEG NEG 100187


Using a straight 10:1 ration (since we’ve been right around freezing, resulting in less, but wet, snow), this solution will yield around 17 inches. The part the interests me is this: according to this, at 21-24Z (4-7pm CST), we should expect 6.3 inches. From 00-03Z (7-10pm CST), another 2 inches. From 03-06Z (10pm-1am CST), another 1.6 inches. From 06-09Z (1-4am CST), another 1.2 inches. Just focusing on the 21-24Z timeframe… how are we going to get over six inches?! I must raise the BS flag on this forecast, just by looking at the radar imagery. The bulk of the snow is to our north. To our south are isolated pockets of snow… more or less convective in nature. It’s possible to see some snowshowers for the next few hours, occasionally heavy. My prediction through tomorrow is around 3-6 inches.


Here’s the OAX AFD…

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 
327 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006 
   
SHORT TERM 
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ONGOING WINTER STORM 
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE AS MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY 
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING TO 
FLURRIES BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN 
RECEIVED THUS FAR WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND COLUMBUS AND ALBION 
IN THE MID TEENS FOR ACCUMULATION WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN HEAVY 
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER EAST...THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN ON 
EASTERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO COMPOUND PROBLEMS RESULTING IN 
OFF AND ON HEAVIER SNOWFALL WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA NOT 
SEEING MUCH AT ALL IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THE DRY AIR HAS 
ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS 
EXTREME SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH ALSO 
SUPPORTED A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY 
IMPRESSIVE ALSO WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING 40MPH+ GUSTS 
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 
 
STILL FEEL THAT THE NAM IS LIKELY OVERFORECASTING THE QPF WITH 
THIS STORM...THUS USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR ADDITIONAL 
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 6AM. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE 
THIS EVENING AS NOTED ON THE 285/290K SURFACES. CROSS SECTIONS OF 
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE STILL INDICATE SOME SLANTWISE 
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...AND EVEN THE GFS INDICATED 
OUTRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH A DECENT AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV 
FROM H70 TO H50. THIS IS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE EXIT REGION OF THE 
110KT JET STREAK THAT SHOWS UP REALLY WELL ON RECENT WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY. 
 
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT...WILL ESSENTIALLY 
CONTINUE OUR CURRENT GROUPINGS OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND 
WINTER STORM WARNINGS. WE DID EXTEND THE HEADLINES THAT WERE 
PREVIOUSLY EXPIRING AT 6PM THIS EVENING TO 4AM TUESDAY. I DID 
ALSO UPGRADE HARRISON COUNTY IN WESTERN IOWA TO A WINTER STORM 
WARNING CONSIDERING THEY HAVE ABOUT 5 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND 
CURRENTLY. WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE SKETCHY ACROSS 
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE 
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE HAS SEVERELY LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION IF ANY 
EXISTS AT ALL. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT 
OF 3 TO 8 INCHES...WE/LL KEEP THEM IN THE WARNING ANYHOW. 
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY 
CREATE A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW...AND LIKELY A LOT OF DRIFTING SNOW 
IN THE OPEN COUNTRY. DESPITE THIS BEING A VERY WET SNOW...THE TOP 
LAYERS OF SNOW ARE BEING BLOWN AROUND QUITE A BIT...WITH THE SNOW 
MELTING FROM THE BOTTOM UP. SOME ROADWAYS ARE JUST WET...WHILE 
OTHERS THAT HAVE REMAINED IN THE HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY 
ARE EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS IF NOT CLOSED. THE NEBRASKA DEPARTMENT 
OF ROADS HAS INDICATED THAT I80 WEST OF LINCOLN IS CLOSED IN MANY 
AREAS. 
 
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE TO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY 
THUS ALLOWING THINGS TO BEGIN WINDING DOWN IN THE DEFORMATION 
ZONE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR 
FLURRIES TUESDAY MORNING BUT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL 
WILL BE OVER BY THAT TIME. WITH DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW...WE MAY SEE 
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT WILL 
STILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30. 
 
THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COLD TO GO FOR TUESDAY 
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI 
VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD ALLOW 
TEMPERATURES TO REALLY RADIATE OUT. HOWEVER...A THIN SHIELD OF 
CIRRUS WILL LIKELY BE SPILLING OVERHEAD FROM ABUNDANT MOISTURE 
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THUS WE WON/T BE COMPLETELY CLEAR. WILL 
FORECAST LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...BUT DO HAVE A COUPLE OF 
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS WHICH HAVE A PROPENSITY TO 
DROP LIKE A ROCK...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE EXTREMELY 
DEEP SNOW COVER. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGH 
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME CONTINUES. 
 
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN IN THE MODELS FOR A FEW DAYS 
STILL LOOKS TO COME ONTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
EARLY THURSDAY...BUT CONTINUES TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH 
EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. THUS...TRIMMED POPS EVEN MORE ON OUR 
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWFA FRINGES WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW ACROSS 
OUR SOUTHWEST WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW. 
   
LONG TERM 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE 
MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LOCATION OF DEEP SNOW 
COVER WILL IMPACT WARMING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND 
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS 
REGION. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH 
THIS SYSTEM LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. GFS 
COLDER WITH ITS THERMAL FIELD AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH DEVELOPMENT 
OF LEE SIDE LOW BY LATE SUNDAY. OVERALL ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO 
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WITH CONTINUED TREND TOWARD WARMER 
TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.

[senorpepr]

Yup... looks like GFS will definately NOT verify this evening. A large dry slot is reforming over the Omaha area... once again. Local observations are unrestricted visibility with no precipitation. The big weather story in the Omaha area is the winds... not the snow--gusts in the 30s. Our best chance of snowfall appears to be after midnight as the band that is well to our northwest (over central to northern Nebraska) heads eastward, following the low. Otherwise... looks like a big bust for the TV mets...

Measured reports locally show just shy of 8" at Valley. Boy's Town is reporting 5.5". However... the official total for Omaha is a WHOPPING 4", with 1.9" of that since midnight. 4" is a little under is >18" junk the TV mets have been hooting and hollering about.

I'll post some more snow reports from the area soon...

[senorpepr]

[lester]

NWS says 1-2 inches for Baltimore/DC

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

1136 AM     SNOW             SEWARD                  40.91N 97.10W
03/20/2006  E9.0 INCH        SEWARD             NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

1152 AM     SNOW             WILBER                  40.48N 96.96W
03/20/2006  M4.0 INCH        SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1-2 FT DRIFTS IN RURAL AREAS

1206 PM     SNOW             3 W PACIFIC JUNCTION    41.02N 95.86W
03/20/2006  M3.0 INCH        CASS               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

1216 PM     SNOW             NORFOLK                 42.03N 97.42W
03/20/2006  M8.0 INCH        MADISON            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

0103 PM     SNOW             TECUMSEH                40.37N 96.19W
03/20/2006  M2.0 INCH        JOHNSON            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

0109 PM     SNOW             BEATRICE                40.27N 96.75W
03/20/2006  M3.0 INCH        GAGE               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

0124 PM     SNOW             FAIRBURY                40.14N 97.18W
03/20/2006  M7.0 INCH        JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DRIFTING SNOW

0124 PM     SNOW             LITTLE SIOUX            41.81N 96.03W
03/20/2006  E4.0 INCH        HARRISON           IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

0214 PM     SNOW             PAPILLION               41.16N 96.04W
03/20/2006  M6.0 INCH        SARPY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0200 PM     SNOW             17 NNE COLUMBUS         41.66N 97.23W
03/20/2006  M15.0 INCH       COLFAX             NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

0200 PM     SNOW             11 NNE COLUMBUS         41.58N 97.27W
03/20/2006  M15.0 INCH       PLATTE             NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

0255 PM     SNOW             WAYNE                   42.24N 97.02W
03/20/2006  E3.0 INCH        WAYNE              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0341 PM     SNOW             HARLAN                  41.65N 95.33W
03/20/2006  E1.0 INCH        SHELBY             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0440 PM     HEAVY SNOW       DAVID CITY              41.25N 97.13W
03/20/2006  E14.0 INCH       BUTLER             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS NEARLY IMPASSABLE.

0445 PM     HEAVY SNOW       COLUMBUS                41.43N 97.36W
03/20/2006  E17.0 INCH       PLATTE             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS NEARLY IMPASSABLE.

0445 PM     HEAVY SNOW       SCHUYLER                41.45N 97.06W
03/20/2006  E12.0 INCH       COLFAX             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF SNOW.

0445 PM     HEAVY SNOW       NELIGH                  42.13N 98.03W
03/20/2006  E10.0 INCH       ANTELOPE           NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

0445 PM     SNOW             TECUMSEH                40.37N 96.19W
03/20/2006  M3.0 INCH        JOHNSON            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

0445 PM     HEAVY SNOW       VALLEY                  41.31N 96.35W
03/20/2006  M7.9 INCH        DOUGLAS            NE   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE.

0455 PM     HEAVY SNOW       STANTON                 41.95N 97.22W
03/20/2006  E7.0 INCH        STANTON            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0455 PM     HEAVY SNOW       SEWARD                  40.91N 97.10W
03/20/2006  E12.0 INCH       SEWARD             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0500 PM     SNOW             BOYS TOWN               41.26N 96.13W
03/20/2006  M5.5 INCH        DOUGLAS            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

0505 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WILBER                  40.48N 96.96W
03/20/2006  M9.2 INCH        SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEASURED SNOW STOTAL SNOWFALL. CURRENTLY STILL HAVE 7
            INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. 1 TO 2 FOOT DRIFTS.
            NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS. STORM TOTAL WATER EQUIVALENT
            OF 0.95 INCHES.

0505 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WINNEBAGO               42.24N 96.47W
03/20/2006  E6.0 INCH        THURSTON           NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0510 PM     HEAVY SNOW       PETERSBURG              41.85N 98.08W
03/20/2006  E16.0 INCH       BOONE              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            3 TO 4 FOOT DRIFTS.

0445 PM     SNOW             OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W
03/20/2006  E1.9 INCH        DOUGLAS            NE   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            SNOWFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

0445 PM     HEAVY SNOW       LINCOLN                 40.82N 96.69W
03/20/2006  E5.0 INCH        LANCASTER          NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOWFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. AROUND 7 INCHES ON THE GROUND.

0445 PM     HEAVY SNOW       4 W NORFOLK             42.03N 97.50W
03/20/2006  E6.0 INCH        MADISON            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOWFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL 12.5
            INCHES. ESTIMATED 11 INCHES STILL ON THE GROUND.


[simplykristi]

NWS says 1 to 2 inches here in metro KC. It is still raining.

Kristi

[senorpepr]

More reports...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA

0550 PM     HEAVY SNOW       DAVID CITY              41.25N 97.13W
03/20/2006  M10.0 INCH       BUTLER             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

0550 PM     HEAVY SNOW       DAVID CITY              41.25N 97.13W
03/20/2006  M12.0 INCH       BUTLER             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 PM     HEAVY SNOW       4 NW ALBION             41.73N 98.06W
03/20/2006  M22.0 INCH       BOONE              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MEASURED IN LORETTO, NE.


[senorpepr]

Just a comment... if it's going to snow in Omaha to any sizable amounts... one of two things needs to happen...

1) The temperatures need to drop. All day long the temperatures have been 32-36°F.

2) The dewpoints need to rise. All day long the dewpoints have been around 24-26°F.

As I've been saying for the past few days... the warm temperatures, the dry air, and the moisture-stealing convection to our south will create problems for the Omaha area. However, areas to our west are seeing copious amounts of snow.

[senorpepr]

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006
 
...STAGGERING SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
 
AS OF 520 PM...THE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER IN GREELEY NEBRASKA REPORTED
A 25 INCH SNOW DEPTH. THE OBSERVER REPORTED 11 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
SINCE 7 AM THIS MORNING...AND THE SNOW KEEPS COMING.
 
ALSO AS OF 520 PM...THE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER IN CENTRAL CITY REPORTED
A SNOW DEPTH OF 19 INCHES...WITH 15 INCHES HAVING FALLEN SINCE 7 AM
THIS MORNING. THAT 15 INCHES ALONE...YIELDED 1.12 INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
 
IN ADDITION...THE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER IN FULLERTON REPORTED 22
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AS OF ABOUT 4 PM.
 
ONCE AGAIN...THE THREE HIGHEST SNOW DEPTHS AS OF ABOUT 5 PM
INCLUDE...
 
     GREELEY          25 INCHES
     FULLERTON        22 INCHES
     CENTRAL CITY     19 INCHES
 
THERE WILL BE MANY MORE REPORTS TO COME...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WILL PASS THAT INFORMATION ALONG AS SOON AS WE RECEIVE IT.
IN THE MEAN TIME...THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
6 AM TUESDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.


[senorpepr]

Just a comment... if it's going to snow in Omaha to any sizable amounts... one of two things needs to happen...

1) The temperatures need to drop. All day long the temperatures have been 32-36°F.

2) The dewpoints need to rise. All day long the dewpoints have been around 24-26°F.

As I've been saying for the past few days... the warm temperatures, the dry air, and the moisture-stealing convection to our south will create problems for the Omaha area. However, areas to our west are seeing copious amounts of snow.

The following is a time-sensitive graphic...


I've posted the latest surface map (00Z) for Nebraska.

Take a look at most of the state... most sites are within a few degrees of their dewpoint. In the panhandle, temperatures in the low 20s with dewpoints in the upper teens. In northern Nebraska, temperatures in the mid 20s with dewpoints in the low 20s. In northeastern, central, and southern Nebraska, temperatures and dewpoints in the upper 20s. All of the aforemented locations have a few things in common... the wind direction is northeasterly allowing for cooler air to advect in. This is allowing for the temperature to drop toward the dewpoint... allowing for atmospheric saturation and, as a result, two-, three-, and even four-star snow (light, moderate, and heavy snow, respectfully).

Now, look at southeastern Nebraska. With the easterly winds, the moist, warm air is being advected. While the temperatures are at or above freezing, the dewpoints are not far behind and therefore the atmosphere is saturated. Furthermore, the air aloft is cool enough to still produce two- and three-star snow.

Over eastern Nebraska (ie Omaha), you run into the mix between both scenarios. You have enough of a easterly wind to bring in the warm air. (Thus the temperatures at or above freezing). However, you have enough of a northerly wind to bring the drier air. While this dry air isn't a problem for the cooler areas in the north, for Omaha this is bringing a gap between the dewpoint and temperature. That's why we're hardly seeing any snowfall locally.

[senorpepr]

Tons of snow reports...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA

0630 PM     SNOW             WAYNE                   42.24N 97.02W
03/20/2006  E10.0 INCH       WAYNE              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL SINCE YESTERDAY.

0630 PM     SNOW             HARTINGTON              42.62N 97.26W
03/20/2006  E5.0 INCH        CEDAR              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            AN ESTIMATE OF 4 TO 5 INCHES.

0635 PM     SNOW             3 NE ONAWA              42.06N 96.05W
03/20/2006  E3.0 INCH        MONONA             IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

0640 PM     SNOW             CLARINDA                40.74N 95.04W
03/20/2006  E0.5 INCH        PAGE               IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

0645 PM     SNOW             FREMONT                 41.44N 96.49W
03/20/2006  E8.0 INCH        DODGE              NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

0645 PM     SNOW             3 SW GLENWOOD           41.02N 95.78W
03/20/2006  E1.5 INCH        MILLS              IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NOT A LOT OF SNOWFALL TODAY. 3 INCH SNOW DEPTH EARLIER
            TODAY NOW DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES DUE TO MELTING AND
            COMPACTION.

0710 PM     SNOW             BLOOMFIELD              42.60N 97.65W
03/20/2006  M7.5 INCH        KNOX               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CURRENT SNOW DEPTH.


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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE

1232 PM     SNOW             LOUP CITY               41.28N 98.97W
03/20/2006  M12.0 INCH       SHERMAN            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            12 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND

1232 PM     SNOW             GRAND ISLAND            40.92N 98.37W
03/20/2006  M15.0 INCH       HALL               NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            15 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE

0121 PM     SNOW             MCCOOL JUNCTION         40.74N 97.60W
03/20/2006  M9.0 INCH        YORK               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

0231 PM     SNOW             HOLDREGE                40.44N 99.38W
03/20/2006  E6.0 INCH        PHELPS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AVERAGE OF 6 INCHES ON THE GROUND. RANGES FROM 4 TO 8
            INCHES AROUND TOWN

0319 PM     SNOW             YORK                    40.87N 97.60W
03/20/2006  M11.0 INCH       YORK               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            11 INCH SNOW DEPTH

0319 PM     SNOW             RIVERDALE               40.78N 99.16W
03/20/2006  E8.0 INCH        BUFFALO            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY

0319 PM     SNOW             FULLERTON               41.36N 97.97W
03/20/2006  M22.0 INCH       NANCE              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            22 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE STORM

0411 PM     SNOW             OSCEOLA                 41.18N 97.55W
03/20/2006  M9.0 INCH        POLK               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            9 INCHES DAILY TOTAL...15 INCHES STORM TOTAL

0430 PM     SNOW             SUPERIOR                40.02N 98.07W
03/20/2006  E4.0 INCH        NUCKOLLS           NE   PUBLIC

            4 INCHES STORM TOTAL

0519 PM     SNOW             CENTRAL CITY            41.11N 98.00W
03/20/2006  M19.0 INCH       MERRICK            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            19 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. 15 INCHES OF SNOW FELL
            SINCE 7 AM TODAY. 1.12 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT
            PRECIPITATION.

0519 PM     SNOW             GREELEY                 41.55N 98.53W
03/20/2006  M25.0 INCH       GREELEY            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            25 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AS OF 5 PM. 11 INCHES OF
            SNOW FELL SINCE 7 AM THIS MORNING.

0536 PM     SNOW             LEBANON                 39.81N 98.56W
03/20/2006  M5.0 INCH        SMITH              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            5 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 7 AM TODAY. 9 INCHES OF SNOW ON
            THE GROUND. WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION SINCE 7 AM WAS
            0.69 INCHES.

0602 PM     SNOW             KEARNEY                 40.70N 99.08W
03/20/2006  M15.0 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTS AT LEAST 15 INCHES OF SNOW
            AT HIS HOME IN KEARNEY

0602 PM     SNOW             GRAND ISLAND            40.92N 98.37W
03/20/2006  M3.0 INCH        HALL               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            3 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE NOON. 15 INCH SNOW DEPTH AT 6 PM.
            14.6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. 1.20 INCHES OF
            WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION

0602 PM     SNOW             KEARNEY                 40.70N 99.08W
03/20/2006  E0.0 INCH        BUFFALO            NE   BROADCAST MEDIA

            17 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE KEARNEY AREA. 3 TO
            6 FOOT DRIFTS

0602 PM     SNOW             HASTINGS                40.59N 98.39W
03/20/2006  M4.0 INCH        ADAMS              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            4 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE NOON. 15 INCH SNOW DEPTH AS OF 6
            PM. SNOWFALL FOR THE DAY 15.3 INCHES. WATER EQUIVALENT
            PRECIPITATION FOR THE DAY 1.27 INCHES.

0602 PM     SNOW             KEARNEY                 40.70N 99.08W
03/20/2006  E17.5 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   BROADCAST MEDIA

            17 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE KEARNEY AREA. 3 TO
            6 FOOT DRIFTS

0602 PM     SNOW             LOUP CITY               41.28N 98.97W
03/20/2006  M9.0 INCH        SHERMAN            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            9 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 7 AM TODAY. 19 INCH SNOW DEPTH AT
            6 PM

0717 PM     SNOW             GRAND ISLAND            40.92N 98.37W
03/20/2006  M19.0 INCH       HALL               NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AVERAGE OF 19 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT NWS
            EMPLOYEES HOME IN NORTHEAST GRAND ISLAND. 6 FOOT DRIFTS.


[senorpepr]

Just a comment... if it's going to snow in Omaha to any sizable amounts... one of two things needs to happen...

1) The temperatures need to drop. All day long the temperatures have been 32-36°F.

2) The dewpoints need to rise. All day long the dewpoints have been around 24-26°F.

As I've been saying for the past few days... the warm temperatures, the dry air, and the moisture-stealing convection to our south will create problems for the Omaha area. However, areas to our west are seeing copious amounts of snow.

I just stepped outside for an observation... looks like a little of option number one and two occurred. While the winds haven't changed much (still at around 060 to 090), with the sun setting, the temperatures have dropped. From 6pm, we've dropped from 36°F to 30°F. Meanwhile, some moist air has made it to the area. The dewpoints have jumped from 26°F to 30°F... leaving us saturated.

Because of the lower levels being saturated... finally... this allowed for some light ice pellets (sleet) to form around 6:30pm. By 7:10pm, the intensity picked up enough to drive the visibility to down around 2 miles. Meanwhile... with the winds gusting to the 30s, some loose snow is beginning to blow around. At 8pm, light snow and ice pellets (sleet) were falling with blowing snow... leaving the visibility at around 3/4 mi. Another thing of note... the vertical visibility has been dropping. Before, we could see a cloud deck at around 1,000ft. However, because of the snow, we can only see about 800ft up.