Landfall probabilities for the atlantic basin

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 01, 2003 3:43 pm

http://www.hurricanealley.net/

You have to press the word forecast that is just below the map to see what they think of this season landfalling probabilities.They divide the months of the season as they show the areas that they think will be the formations and then the landfall probabilities.

What are your comments about this?

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Mon Jun 02, 2003 1:21 pm

Well Luis I dont agree as i stated elsewhere...lol.............Mainly because i do feel that either the West Coast of FLA and or the East coast of the US will see a landfall.............I actually feel that the east coast is more likely to see a landfall then LA...........The main area i am looking for a landfall would be the Outerbanks of NC or The NE coast from NY North. For one reason would be the obvious. And that is they are over do and the other is the Bermuda High which i expect to steer some possibilities towards the east coast..........And with the type of pattern we are in it wouldnt suprise me a bit to have a system stall in that area around the Outerbanks..........But this is my opinion and take on it right now..............Just have to wait and see..............

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 02, 2003 1:33 pm

King..waht makes you think the WCOF..I have obvious reasons for asking..I live here!! :wink:

mf_dolphin · #4 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Jun 02, 2003 1:38 pm

Who did you upset Rainband? ;-)

No vacancy for storms here on the west coast of Florida!

#5 Postby **Steve** » Mon Jun 02, 2003 1:39 pm

>>Well Luis I dont agree as i stated elsewhere...lol.............Mainly because i do feel that either the West Coast of FLA and or the East coast of the US will see a landfall.............I actually feel that the east coast is more likely to see a landfall then LA...........The main area i am looking for a landfall would be the Outerbanks of NC or The NE coast from NY North. For one reason would be the obvious. And that is they are over do and the other is the Bermuda High which i expect to steer some possibilities towards the east coast..........And with the type of pattern we are in it wouldnt suprise me a bit to have a system stall in that area around the Outerbanks..........But this is my opinion and take on it right now..............Just have to wait and see..............

I like their idea that a large segment of the coast is open to possible landafalls.

Steve

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 02, 2003 1:43 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:Who did you upset Rainband? No vacancy for storms here on the west coast of Florida!

Upset???

isobar · #7 Postby **isobar** » Mon Jun 02, 2003 5:55 pm

It seems they left you out of the landfall probabilities this year, cyc. Hope that holds true.

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 02, 2003 6:04 pm

Well isobar this landfall probabilitie forecast is not a stone thing as many things can happen so here in Puerto Rico I will not take any chances and be prepared for anything.

Rainband · #9 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 02, 2003 6:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:Well isobar this landfall probabilitie forecast is not a stone thing as many things can happen so here in Puerto Rico I will not take any chances and be prepared for anything.

The key word is prediction....FACTS outweigh predictions!!! The fact is it's a guessing game until it happens!!! We are not yet and probably won't ever be able to predict weather to 100% certainty!! :wink:

southerngale · #10 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jun 02, 2003 6:20 pm

Rainband wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Well isobar this landfall probabilitie forecast is not a stone thing as many things can happen so here in Puerto Rico I will not take any chances and be prepared for anything.
The key word is prediction....FACTS outweigh predictions!!! The fact is it's a guessing game until it happens!!! We are not yet and probably won't ever be able to predict weather to 100% certainty!!

And especially not MONTHS in advance.

mahmoo · #11 Postby **mahmoo** » Mon Jun 02, 2003 9:04 pm

I don't wish them on any other place....but LA got one last year so it's not our turn for the next 10 years.

southerngale · #12 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jun 02, 2003 9:07 pm

If only it was that simple mahmoo...

mahmoo · #13 Postby **mahmoo** » Mon Jun 02, 2003 9:11 pm

I know....we got off really easy. I just can't stand the thought of doing it again any time soon.

southerngale · #14 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jun 02, 2003 9:13 pm

I hear ya.

#15 Postby **Stephanie** » Tue Jun 03, 2003 8:16 pm

I was surprised to see all of the Cat 3 storms! Also, in July they had a Cat 1 hitting New England. That's definately something that we haven't seen for a long time! :o

#16 Postby **azskyman** » Tue Jun 03, 2003 10:04 pm

Years of records and computer models combine to make these kinds of predictions.

Weather prediction, and in particular tropical weather prediction, is a very challenging science.

Tropical weather prediction is fascinating because it has multiple tiers of challenge.

For example, predicting the number of storms is one aspect, while predicting the when and where is another. Then there is the severity of the storm. Which category will the storm reach?

And then, of course, the whole issue of landfall. Both timing and location.

Followed of course by such issues as re-emergence over open waters or the impact of the inland track on torrential rainfall.

What a great combination of challenges for the weather enthusiast, professional and amateur alike.

It's the anticipation that makes tropical weather so exciting.

Looking at the map...the link you gave us...is neat in itself because it says we're not in a hot spot this year...but then...

We'll just have to wait and see, won't we.

#17 Postby **Stephanie** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 12:30 pm

That we will Steve!

It's always neat to go back and compare to the forecasts later to see how "close" they were.

Landfall probabilities for the atlantic basin

Landfall probabilities for the atlantic basin

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