Watch BOC and WGOM this week

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Rainband

#21 Postby Rainband » Mon Jun 02, 2003 8:45 am

Steve wrote:>>No one is excited we are just talking about what if's.. mellow out!! J/K..I know what your saying but I know these models are fickle and I only really become interested when there is an actual disturbance or storm>>

Sup Rainband? I agree with what you're saying. But it's enhanced by the excitement of the season starting in about 2:20. Funny you should mention the unreliability of the models way out. I'm not big on the GFS anyway because of its known biases, but on the 372 hour loop, it wants to develop 2 gulf storms in some capacity. The first comes up from the south of a stalled out frontal boundary along the GC. It pulses and hits southern LA, moves back slightly off shore and pulses up around Mobile Bay before slowing heading off into GA. A few days later, an apparently stronger storm develops a couple hundred miles east of the TX Coast and comes into Central LA.

Like you, I'll believe it when I see it. But now that the season is just about here, you have to watch the models to see their tendencies. I will believe when I see it too..
Steve
The landfall forecast on hurricanealley did have a tropical system make landfall in the beginning of June north of me on the big bend.. :roll: :roll: notta about texas..so I guess different people will have differing opinions and they will only be proven when made FACT!!! :) :wink: I am usually one of those "I won't believe it till it happens kind of guys"!! :o
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#22 Postby Guest » Mon Jun 02, 2003 12:30 pm

Any new news on this for Monday? Heard JB still showing it to be developing - maybe the rain for the Gulf Coast area?

Patricia
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#23 Postby wx247 » Mon Jun 02, 2003 12:47 pm

Per the latest discussion on this system, it is drifting NW. Is it expected to get pulled eastward sometime soon?
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#24 Postby Steve » Mon Jun 02, 2003 12:48 pm

Not much. GFS/ECMWF still are hinting at low pressure off the S TX coast after 120 hours. I only saw the presentations on the streaming videos but have not yet looked at the models themselves. Apparently GFS ultimately fees the gulf will be unstable, but I don't know the day fix since I haven't framed through today's 00z or 12z runs yet. In any event, I think we'll see more rain than we have in a while from a variety of sources (whether frontal, tropical or whatever).

Steve
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#25 Postby Steve » Mon Jun 02, 2003 1:01 pm

>>Per the latest discussion on this system, it is drifting NW. Is it expected to get pulled eastward sometime soon?

Let me see if I can capture some images from the model runs. Hang tight:

GFS 06z 6/2/03 Run:

[img]c:\1008.bmp[/img]

I can e-mail it to you if you want, but essentially around the 9th, GFS puts a 1008 mb Low off the LA Coast. Practically every day after Wed of this week (for the 372 hour period) has between a .01 and 2.5" rainfall over my area.

ECMWF 12z puts a 1006 mb low (almost appears nontropical, would have to research) over S TX and then develops it inland as a 1004 mb low over the Arklatex region. In any event, the European Model does show rain for east TX in that time frame.

Just my casual observation.

Steve[/img]
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#26 Postby Rainband » Mon Jun 02, 2003 1:37 pm

Steve wrote:Not much. GFS/ECMWF still are hinting at low pressure off the S TX coast after 120 hours. I only saw the presentations on the streaming videos but have not yet looked at the models themselves. Apparently GFS ultimately fees the gulf will be unstable, but I don't know the day fix since I haven't framed through today's 00z or 12z runs yet. In any event, I think we'll see more rain than we have in a while from a variety of sources (whether frontal, tropical or whatever).

Steve
I also saw that model..I saw another one I believe avn..thats brings moisture into the GOM from the atlantic and slides it under florida....near the keys and moves it towards texas.. :roll: :wink:
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#27 Postby southerngale » Mon Jun 02, 2003 2:22 pm

I'll go with that model Rainband. We need moisture so bad...in any shape or form.
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#28 Postby Rainband » Mon Jun 02, 2003 2:32 pm

Kelly be careful what you ask for LOL :wink:
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#29 Postby wx247 » Mon Jun 02, 2003 3:23 pm

Thanks Steve! Your explination was good enough. I appreciate it. :)
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#30 Postby southerngale » Mon Jun 02, 2003 6:05 pm

Rainband wrote:Kelly be careful what you ask for LOL :wink:


Yeah, I don't want any Allison's coming my way. But we just need rain so bad! As I type, it's thundering like mad outside and yet, the storms are to my west, north, east... :roll:

Hey, do I hear the pitter-patter of light sprinkles? :D
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#31 Postby Rainband » Mon Jun 02, 2003 6:06 pm

southerngale wrote:Yeah, I don't want any Allison's coming my way. But we just need rain so bad! As I type, it's thundering like mad outside and yet, the storms are to my west, north, east... :roll:

Hey, do I hear the pitter-patter of light sprinkles? :D
I know what you mean ..I need rain too..just not as bad!!! :wink:
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