MUST READ! NWS Response to Strong Bermuda Highs in Spring

[gatorcane]

Chris,

Based on my observations and those of a couple of our forecasters, this
winter's pattern has been quite transient (lack of persistence of one
main feature - high or low). The persistent ridge described in the
discussion from March 11th is more representative of what we've seen in
the shorter term, basically the last 2 weeks - however I would argue
that even this hasn't really persisted yet. It is quite possible that
we will get into more of a persistent ridge as we get deeper into
spring, especially with La Niña (albeit a weak one) in place.

Correlation of a persistent spring Bermuda high with the same pattern
throughout the summer/fall is not very high. In other words, there's
no guarantee that a strong Bermuda high in the spring will persist through
the hurricane season. For example, last year we had a wetter than
normal May at both Miami and West Palm Beach, indicative of a transient
or even trough pattern, yet we still had tropical cyclones affect South
Florida. We also had an extremely wet June area-wide, which again
goes against the persistent ridge theory.

In short, my answer is that there is no well-established correlation
between patterns observed in the spring and patterns observed in the
subsequent hurricane season. It's entirely possible that we could end
up with a ridge all summer, it's also entirely possible that we have
more transient features. Even in persistent patterns, small breaks
can occur which can last 1-2 weeks at a time which can affect hurricane
tracks. Charley in August 2004 was a classic example where a strong
trough more reminiscent of early fall moved into the Gulf and
steered the hurricane north and northeast into Florida which is quite
rare for August. That summer was otherwise generally characterized
by a ridge over the Atlantic.

Hope this answers your question.

[CHRISTY]

looks like a pretty big front is on the way?we will see what happens!

[boca]

No big front anymore according to the Mia NWS might get rain but I'm not banking on it.


.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY FRONTS TO BRING NOTICEABLY
COOLER AIR INTO OUR ZONES. ALTHOUGH THE REMANENTS OF THE LAST FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR ZONES IS STILL OVER THE AREA IT IS VERY DIFFUSE
AND PRODUCING NOTHING IN THE WAY OF WEATHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
MAKE A PUSH SOUTHWARD IS IN THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND MOVING EAST RATHER RAPIDLY SO THIS FRONT WILL BE
HARD PRESSED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR SOUTH. BY MID WEEK ANOTHER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT AND AGAIN PUSH IT
TOWARD OUR ZONES. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FRONT FROM MAKING IT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
INSTEAD IT SHOULD STALL PROBABLY JUST AROUND THE LAKE. WE ARE
SEEING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS FOR ABOUT A WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME UPPER WAVE COULD MOVE ALONG THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE NEXT
WEEK AND TRY TO DEVELOP SOME SURFACE WAVE ON THE STATIONARY FRONT.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS WILL
GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN AWHILE. AT THIS TIME WE WILL
BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. HOWEVER
THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE WILL BE WITH THE SURFACE WAVE WHICH IS DUE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADJUST THIS
TIMING BASED UPON WHERE THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEXT WEEK.

&&

[Scorpion]

Just post it.

[gatorcane]

I posted the NWS Mia response, at least there is some good news here...maybe

[CHRISTY]

i would not say good news....he is saying that its still up in the air if will have a stong ridge or troughs?which i already new this!iam thinking its still way to early to know what will happen months from now.iam thinking we will have a strong ridge in 06 but then again we just have to wait and see what happens....thanks for that info.

[CHRISTY]

i would not say good news....he is saying that its still up in the air if will have a stong ridge or troughs?which i already new this!iam thinking its still way to early to know what will happen months from now.iam thinking we will have a strong ridge in 06 but then again we just have to wait and see what happens....thanks for that info.

[CHRISTY]

PLEASE ERASE THE TOP MESSAGE IT WAS A MISTAKE!i kinda quoted myself.

[gatorcane]

I'm not liking his comment about a possible la nina...hmmm. That can't be good.