Plains snowstorm: 18-21 March

[senorpepr]

Okay... normally I'm not the one that hoists his freak-flag over something this far out... but for seven-straight GFS runs, 21+ inches of snow has been forecast for the Omaha area.

Now, with that said, GFS is the snowiest when compared to the UKMO, NOGAPS, and ECMWF, but it should be noted that all solutions still paint significant snowfall for Omaha for latter March.

So... after reading the following AFD from Omaha...

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 
257 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006
///snip///
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL 
FOR A DECENT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND THE 06Z DGEX...NCEP 
ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ALSO AGREE WITH THAT GENERAL IDEA.  WARM AIR 
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT (290-295K SFC) WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. APPEARS THAT 
MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN. 
HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE 
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...THOUGH IF THE 
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT POPS WILL HAVE TO INCREASED EVEN FURTHER. 
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN...ONE THING THAT COULD LIMIT THE 
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AT SOME POINT COULD BE A DRY SLOT WHICH 
THE MODELS HAVE ALSO HINTED AT...BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAIN 
UNCERTAIN. 
 
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A COMPLEX ISSUE WITH VARIOUS MODEL 
SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WARMER AIR LIFTING 
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THIS ALL REMAINS QUITE 
UNCERTAIN. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MORE OF A SNOW LOOK IN THE 
NORTH WHERE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TENDED TO AGREE THAT THE 
COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE...AND A MIX IN THE SOUTH. OVERALL THIS IS 
QUITE AN INTERESTING LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAS THE 
POTENTIAL TO DROP QUITE A BIT OF QPF.

...ahh! Note the phrase "dry slot". Eastern Nebraska and western Iowa has seen its share of dry slots. We've missed out on some recent precipitation chances because of said dry slot.

Okay... so now I wonder, "what does the zone forecast look like?"

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EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA ZONE FORECASTS FOR NEBRASKA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 
313 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006
///snip///
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE 
OF RAIN...SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN 
THE MID 30S.   
MONDAY NIGHT 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. 
LOWS IN THE MID 20S.   
TUESDAY 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 
IN THE UPPER 30S.

Well, that's really dull. Although, I must point out... someone has balls forecasting "light sleet" so far in advance.

Anyway... I'm posting the 15/00Z GFS meteogram for Omaha. Using the standard 10:1 ratio, that shows about two feet for the storm total. As the days move forward, I'll keep an eye on the storm as it unfolds. Later this week, I'll look into giving an actual forecast--for what it's worth.

[senorpepr]

Here are some more AFDs concerning the snowstorm...

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 
1033 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006
///snip///
THIS IS WHERE THINGS REALLY START TO GET INTERESTING AS A SIGNIFICANT 
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL OPEN UP 
THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS EARLY AS 
FRIDAY...WITH DECENT MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA DURING THE DAY 
ON SATURDAY.  NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH GOOD 
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CREATE AN OVERRUNNING SET UP AS MOISTURE RIDES 
UP AND OVER COOL SFC AIR.  ULTIMATELY...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN 
EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SATURDAY 
AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY AND MAYBE EVEN INTO TUESDAY.  THE BIG 
QUESTION THEN BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE.  NEARLY ALL GFS ENSEMBLE 
RUNS KEEP THE 0C 850MB LINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS WITH THE 
ENSEMBLE MEAN LOCATED SOUTH OF EVEN OUR KANSAS ZONES.  THE ECMWF IS 
A LITTLE WARMER BUT EVEN AT ITS WARMEST KEEPS THE 0C AT 850MB 
LINE AROUND THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA STATE LINE.  SOUNDINGS FROM THE 
OPERATIONAL GFS ARE CLEARLY SNOW SOUNDINGS OVER NEBRASKA WITH 
PERHAPS A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION OVER KANSAS ZONES.  THERE IS 
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS 
OUT.  ANYONE MAKING TRAVEL PLANS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD 
KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL 
THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 
215 PM CST TUE MAR 14 2006 
///snip///
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR PRECIPITATION   
EVENT THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC   
SURFACE...STREAM FUNCTIONS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW A   
GOOD TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA GULF COAST ACROSS THE   
PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE   
12Z GLOBAL FORECAST RUN SHOWS PRETTY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE   
CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.   
ELEVATED UPGLIDE CONTINUES IN THE WRAPAROUND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH   
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LONG RANGE SIMULATIONS   
ARE NOT REAL CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING YET...SO WE ARE PLANNING ON   
KEEPING SOME CHANCE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH   
MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. A NORTH-SOUTH CROSS SECTION THROUGH SOUTH   
DAKOTA...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS SHOWS A BROAD SHALLOW-SLOPED QUASI-   
STATIONARY FRONT WITH MOIST AIR LIFTING WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC   
LAYER AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO THE   
MOST LIKELY FORM WILL BE SNOW. QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS   
INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLE WITH TWO DAY   
TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY 4 TO   
8 INCHES IN THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST. IF THIS PERSISTS FOR 36-48   
HOURS AS INDICATED...SUCH AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF   
POSSIBILITY. SINCE THIS IS A WEEKEND EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO   
DISCUSS THIS SYSTEM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH THE USUAL   
UNCERTAINTY DISCLAIMERS REGARDING TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

[senorpepr]

Here's the same 15/00Z GFS Output, in numerical format. The quantitative precipitation forecast, with the 10:1 snow ratio applied, yields around 23.6 inches of snow. This could be very interesting...

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41.12N 95.90W
OUTPUT FROM GFS 00Z MAR 15 2006
                                             FL150   FL200   FL250
TTTPTT DPR1R2R3 VVVLI PSQNHDDFF HHSTT1T2T3 W TB  IC  TB  IC  TB  IC  TCCCLB


084002 97869189 06314 260261011 3899989696 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100061
087011 98939693 02415 270301012 3799979696 S LGT MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100045
090006 98929692 04415 260270913 3899979595 S NEG LGT NEG LGT NEG NEG 100045
093002 98899688 02315 250240913 3999989595 S NEG NEG NEG LGT NEG NEG 100044
096001 98869386 02817 250260912 3898979494 S NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG 100046
099001 97858781 00516 270290811 3798979494 S NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG 100048
102001 97889084 -1414 270290810 3697979494 S NEG LGT NEG NEG NEG NEG 100048
105000 97919692 -1414 270290811 3697969494   NEG LGT NEG NEG NEG NEG 100044
108000 97939896 -1714 260270812 3797969394   NEG NEG NEG LGT NEG NEG 100046
111001 98919895 00414 260270913 3898969494 S NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG 100063
114000 98799395 00916 250240911 3801999594   NEG NEG MOD NEG NEG NEG 100067
117004 98738590 00015 220140910 4001009694 S LGT MOD LGT LGT NEG NEG 100033
120030 99939897 10517 210140710 4099999594 S LGT MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100039
123028 99909294 10219 220170710 3899999694 S NEG MOD NEG NEG NEG NEG 100045
126022 99949795 04217 210120915 3898989593 S LGT MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100047
129018 98939995 02415 180040916 3898979493 S NEG MOD NEG LGT MOD NEG 100051
132015 98949996 07712 169990812 3897969394 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100045
135011 97939993 21817 159960808 3696969292 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100038
138025 98929998 14917 119810715 3797969291 S NEG LGT NEG NEG NEG NEG 100035
141015 98929998 09118 109760610 3398979391 S NEG MOD LGT LGT LGT NEG 100031
144024 98949999 05519 109780511 2897979392 S SVR MOD MOD LGT LGT NEG 100031
147009 98949999 -0417 119810411 2797969391 S SVR LGT SVR NEG LGT NEG 100031
150003 98949999 00318 119810211 2797969391 S LGT LGT SVR NEG LGT NEG 100031
153002 97949999 -0619 139880110 2796969291 S NEG NEG LGT NEG MOD NEG 100031
156001 97959999 -1320 169950011 2895959190 S NEG NEG NEG NEG MOD NEG 100032
159001 97939999 -0922 190060110 2796959190 S LGT LGT NEG LGT LGT NEG 100031
162001 98909999 -2022 210103610 2998969290 S LGT NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG 100032
165001 98899899 00522 220150010 3199979391 S LGT NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG 100031
168001 98909898 00320 240210008 3198979391 S NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG 100032


[senorpepr]

I haven't had the chance to see the 06Z run, but the 12Z run still paints significant snows for the area. The good news, I guess, would be a slight decrease in the amounts--16.5 inches rather than the 23.6 inches from the 00Z run. Here's the FOUS output emcompassing the entire snow fall from Saturday morning through Tuesday evening...

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41.12N 95.90W
OUTPUT FROM GFS 12Z MAR 15 2006
                                             FL150   FL200   FL250
TTTPTT DPR1R2R3 VVVLI PSQNHDDFF HHSTT1T2T3 W TB  IC  TB  IC  TB  IC  TCCCLB

066001 97798789 03412 270290909 3600999796 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100071
069002 97909696 02613 270301009 3699989696 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100053
072002 97919797 -0613 270300910 3698979696 S NEG LGT NEG LGT NEG NEG 100043
075004 97919696 01415 280340910 3699979595 S LGT MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100032
078006 98929896 02114 280330910 3799979595 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100035
081002 98879898 01514 260280911 3799989594 S NEG LGT NEG NEG NEG NEG 100032
084001 98829094 01314 260260810 3799999595 S NEG LGT NEG NEG NEG NEG 100031
087002 98818792 -1214 280310810 3799989594 S NEG MOD NEG NEG NEG NEG 100034
090002 98889393 00413 280320810 3698979594 S NEG MOD NEG NEG NEG NEG 100034
093001 97919493 -1613 270290811 3697979595 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100037
096000 97909392 09714 260240812 3796969494   NEG LGT NEG LGT NEG NEG 100036
099015 97949289 00315 280300814 3696959495 S MOD MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100032
102006 98949693 01314 260250912 3897969495 S LGT MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100040
105003 98889798 01714 240211013 3799989494 S NEG LGT NEG LGT NEG NEG 100040
108012 98939694 -6913 230160914 3898979494 S MOD MOD LGT LGT LGT NEG 100036
111008 98939998 03215 250200912 3898979493 S NEG MOD NEG NEG LGT NEG 100039
114007 98959999 02216 220120713 3798979493 S LGT MOD MOD LGT NEG NEG 100035
117009 98939999 -6116 179990718 3997979393 S LGT LGT NEG LGT NEG NEG 100030
120011 98939999 15517 170000813 3697969392 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100031
123018 97939999 15216 169930716 3596959291 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100030
126023 97939999 12418 159920713 3196969290 S LGT MOD LGT NEG LGT NEG 100031
129013 97919999 02417 159920614 2796959290 S SVR MOD MOD NEG MOD NEG 100031
132004 97929999 00114 159930413 2796969291 S NEG MOD SVR NEG MOD NEG 100031
135003 97939999 00114 189990211 2696959290 S NEG LGT NEG NEG LGT NEG 100031
138004 97949999 00217 190020110 2596959290 S LGT LGT LGT NEG LGT NEG 100031
141004 97949999 00819 200060111 2495959190 S LGT LGT LGT NEG NEG NEG 100033
144000 96949999 -0823 220130109 2595949189   NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG 100034
147000 97929999 -2723 250220109 2796949189   NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG 100031
150001 98899995 -2621 260263609 2999969291 S NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG 100032
153001 99899998 00119 270273508 3199989492 S LGT NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG 100031

[senorpepr]

Reviewing the AFDs...

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 
1147 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006
///snip///
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 
1119 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006
///snip///
BY SATURDAY A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE WEST 
COAST OF THE U.S. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE 
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTH WINDS BRING A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE 
APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES 
ACROSS THE AREA. MADE NO CHANGES TO SATURDAY AND BEYOND.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 
840 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006 
///snip///
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE QUIET AND MILD...HOWEVER ALL EYES WILL BE 
WATCHING DEVELOPING STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING ONTO THE 
PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES THIS ROUND 
AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL 
STILL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA...THUS WILL 
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 
1050 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006
///snip///
ATTENTION THEN RAPIDLY TURNS TO LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH   
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. WITH THE GULF OPEN AS EARLY AS   
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS   
THE AREA.  MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM   
ACROSS ONTARIO HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

Okay... nothing really exciting in those bulletins. Actually... it's rather boring, especially the OMA AFD. I'm sure when the afternoon bulletins are issued they will have a little more news inside. :knocks on wood:

I have also reviewed the HWOs... nothing new there either. Pretty much a regurgitation of what you see above.

[senorpepr]

After reviewing the temperatures a bit... it looks like the temperatures will be a few degrees below 0°C, so we are probably looking a ratio of near 12:1. Appling that ratio, we're looking at 19.8". Regardless... it paint a grim picture for those who thought winter was over...

[senorpepr]

:breathes in and smells smoke from grass fires:


Those gusty south-southeasterly winds are advecting in the odor of burnt vegetation. It reminds me of my sister's cooking, but that's beside the point. I'm here to update the snow situation for this weekend.

First, I was taking a gander at some of the experimental USAF algorithms off of the 12Z GFS. Unfortunately, these solutions only go out through Sunday, so it isn't picking up the bulk of the system. Regardless, it's painting a nasty situation (completely unrelated to the storm I'm mentioning) for the Dakotas and Minnesota for the remainder of this week. It does, however, forecast 2-3 inches for a majority of eastern Nebraska for this weekend. As I said... this doesn't include the bulk of the moisture which is due to arrive on Monday.

Come tomorrow, I should have a better idea of snow totals and... if I'm feeling froggy enough... I'll draw up a map.

With that said, here are some afternoon AFDs...

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 
250 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006 
///sinp///
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD WILL BE STORM SYSTEM FOR SUN-TUE. ALL MODELS/ENSEMBLES SEEM 
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SGFNT STORM INTO THE CNTRL US. THERE ARE 
DIFFS IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE MAIN FEATURES DRNG THE 
PERIOD THOUGH. NEVERTHELESS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SNOW 
EVENT WILL UNFOLD ACRS PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WL 
FOLLOW THE HPC LEAD AND FOLLOW A MODIFIED GFS LOOK THRU THIS TIME 
PERIOD. SFC HI TO OUR N ON SUN WL LIKELY LEAD TO AN ERLY LO LVL 
FLOW OVR THE CWA AND MAY TEND TO FEED IN DRY AIR FM THE EAST. THUS 
PCPN MAY TAKE SOME TIME REALLY GETTING GOING ON SUN OVR THE 
CNTRL/ERN CWA. THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SUN NIGHT AS STRONGER UPR 
LVL FORCING MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. MOST OF THE PCPN SHLD 
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH STG SFC HI TO THE N FEEDING IN COLD 
AIR. PCPN IS LIKELY TO BE HEAVIEST DRNG THE DAY ON MON AS MAIN 
UPPR LVL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. GFS SEEMS OVERDONE ON QPF 
AMOUNTS DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THAT MOISTURE DOES 
SEEM TO BE AVAILABLE. IT IS INCREASINGLY HARD THIS TIME OF YEAR TO 
ACCUM SN DRNG DAY LIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE GFS IS A WET 
MODEL. THUS WE ARE VRY CAUTIOUS IN USING SUCH EXTREME 
AMOUNTS...BUT SYSTEM DOES BARE SOME WATCHING. ANY PRECIP SHLD MV 
EWD OF THE AREA ON TUES...BUT TMPS LOOK TO CONT WELL BELOW NRML. 
HAVE UNDERCUT MEX/HPC GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL CAT FOR TUES/WED WITH 
EXPECTED PATTERN AND ANY SN COVER. 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 
300 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006
///snip///
    IT STILL APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS A   
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THE AGENDA THIS WEEKEND.   
UNIMPEDED FLOW FROM THE GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS   
FRIDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN ALONG A GENTLY SLOPING   
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PLAINS. BY EARLY SATURDAY, NEARLY SATURATED AIR   
IS LIFTED INTO UNSTABLE AIR OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AS INDICATED BY A   
THETA-E CROSS-SECTION. THE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST   
INDICATES TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEEDING 1/2 INCH IN SOME   
AREAS. FROM THE TIME IT STARTS IN THE WEST, I.E. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT,   
UNTIL IT TAPERS OFF IN THE EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT IS 72 HOURS, WHICH   
SEEMS TO BE AN UNUSUALLY LONG-LIVED EVENT. THIS CASTS A PALL OF   
DOUBT ON THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY. STILL, IT IS A MAJOR ENOUGH   
EVENT TO CONTINUE DISCUSSING IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER   
OUTLOOK.

To comment on the above AFDs, they make very good points. The performance of the GFS (being a moist model) coupled with the fact that this is late March makes it hard to believe we'll get that much snow. The fact that the GFS has issued this sort of a solution for nine-straight runs makes me perk up. Nonetheless... it still bears watching. I'll post more on this later tonight...

[senorpepr]

Okay... here's an update. With the 15/18Z GFS, this makes the tenth straight run showing significant snowfall for Nebraska.

First, here's Omaha's HWO from today...

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 
355 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006 
///snip///
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
 
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY UNSETTLED DURING THE 
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR 
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW 
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. 

There isn't a FOUS bulletin (on the 18Z), so I've taken a peek at some of the graphical forecasts. Below is a graphic for Omaha, showing a snowdepth of around 41cm by late Tuesday. To convert for you non metric-minded folks, that around 16 inches.

Of course, I don't want to hoist the freak-flag on that amount yet. GFS tends to be rather "soggy," however at least 8 inches looks really possible--unless we have a long-lived dry slot... again.

[weatherlover427]

(Just so Mike isn't the only one posting here )...

I have a friend who lives in North Platte, any idea on what he might expect out of this?

[senorpepr]

(Just so Mike isn't the only one posting here )...

I have a friend who lives in North Platte, any idea on what he might expect out of this?

The 15/18Z is currently indicating around a foot. However, I still believe that is awfully high. Six inches would be my "safe" forecast at this time.

[senorpepr]

Here's another graphic that gives us a range for snowfall for eastern Nebraska..



That yields 27-45cm (11-18")...

[Omaha DUDE]

So omaha can except 11-18 inches?

[AirmaN]

I might go crazy if we get another dry slot over us...

let it snow..let it snow..let it snow..

[senorpepr]

So omaha can except 11-18 inches?

Well... that's what the models are indicating, but if you know Omaha weather... I'd expect a dry slot to cut that number down. Typically, I like to cut the number in half. I find it's a reasonable bet when you do that--which would yield us to around 5-9 inches. Surprisingly, some of the mets in the local area that I've talked to are saying figures that around there.

Nonetheless, I'll look at more stuff today...

[AirmaN]

Dry slots are my enemy.

[Craig]

Yes..Im from Omaha also....This looks like a biggie for us...I dont expect much dry slotting.

[carve]

If you want dry slots...come to central ohio..it's either dry slots or that dang plastic bubble they put up!!

[Craig]

Yeah...anyone want to give me a update on this?

[Craig]

Im expecting about 6-10 Inches here in theOmaha Area by Sunday night then another 6-10 inches.

[senorpepr]

Sorry for my tardiness. First, happy Saint Patrick's Day. Second, our snowstorm is poised to begin tomorrow, in theory. Third, I believe we can all breath easier if you are NOT wanting snow.

First, here is the FOUS data from the 17/00Z GFS...

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41.12N 95.90W
OUTPUT FROM GFS 00Z MAR 17 2006
                                             FL150   FL200   FL250
TTTPTT DPR1R2R3 VVVLI PSQNHDDFF HHSTT1T2T3 W TB  IC  TB  IC  TB  IC  TCCCLB

033001 98778681 00914 260291210 3803029897 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100087
036002 98798076 02513 260271211 3802019897 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100077
039001 98808781 02513 260271211 3803019797 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100063
042003 99789392 02013 240221112 4004019897 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100060
045002 99809595 04412 210131112 4104029897 S NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG NEG 100050
048002 99839296 03213 210140912 4102029897 S NEG LGT NEG NEG NEG NEG 100044
051006 99859395 03612 210151014 4102019897 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100033
054006 99879898 08411 200111112 4001019897 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100033
057013 00939998 03509 200091113 4001009797 S NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100033
060005 99949997 -0110 180051114 4000999797 P LGT MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100032
063004 99949999 03709 200071013 4000999696 P NEG LGT NEG NEG NEG NEG 100035
066007 99939999 00909 190050914 4099999696 P NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100033
069005 99939999 03008 169970915 4199999696 P NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG NEG 100031
072010 99939999 01709 179980815 4199999696 P NEG MOD NEG NEG NEG NEG 100031
075007 99949999 00711 180020714 4099999695 S NEG LGT NEG NEG NEG NEG 100031
078006 99959999 01411 179990714 3898989595 S LGT NEG LGT NEG NEG NEG 100031
081004 98959999 02512 169950613 3698979494 S NEG NEG LGT NEG LGT NEG 100031
084003 98959998 09412 159930513 3697979394 S NEG NEG MOD NEG LGT NEG 100031
087004 98949996 02713 159920416 3597969393 S NEG NEG MOD NEG NEG NEG 100033
090006 98929997 04915 159920215 3397969292 S LGT LGT LGT LGT LGT NEG 100032
093008 98919987 02116 169940116 3197969292 S LGT MOD LGT NEG LGT NEG 100037
096003 97919982 -0217 180000014 3096959291 S LGT MOD LGT NEG LGT NEG 100048


In theory, that would yield to around 7.7 inches of snow.

Whoa... why the decrease in snow totals?!

Well, I've mentioned some of it before and now I'm going to set up the game plan on why we won't see any LARGE amounts of snowfall.

First... a few days ago, the temperatures forecast were a few degrees below freezing at both the surface and 850mb levels. However, now that the storm system has more observation data inserted into the models, the forecast solution expects to see a little warmer temperatures. What does this mean? Well... a few things: A) with the warmer temperature, the snow:water ratio decreases since warmer air can hold more water. That would yield less snow. B) with the warmer temperature, the chances of mixed precipitation increase. You can see that even in the above FOUS bulletin. Before it was forecasting all snow. Now, it's forecasting some sleet. It also wouldn't surprise me to see some big, fat raindrops. C) with the warmer temperature, the ground doesn't have a chance to cool off. Currently the ground temperature is around 40F. Therefore, some of the snow will melt before accumulations begin.

Secondly, blame the southern and central Plains. These locations will see convection (ie thunderstorms) with this system. While the Gulf is technically "open", the convection between us (Nebraska) and the Gulf will steal moisture. With less moisture to work with, less snow will fall.

Third, blame Canada. (I've been wanting to say that!) Seriously, though... an area of high pressure currently north of the Great Lakes is forecast to build (strengthen) and sag southward. With the southerly motion, this will force easterly winds in our direction while shifting the storm track. This means, as the low is forced to track more southward than before... this will keep the heaviest snows away from us. Also, the easterly winds are a dry wind. That's right... yet another dry slot.

In summary, the convection to our south and dry air from our east may spoil our hyped-up storm. There are too many documented cases (according to the local terminal forecast reference notebook) where strong convection in the southern plains steals the northward moisture flow leading to reduced snowfall amounts in the central and northern plains. Furthermore, the strengthening, southward moving high north of the Great Lakes this weekend will be feeding low-level dry air in from the east and also tend to force the surface low on a more southerly track than is optimal for heavy local snow. Together, these factors may well combine to drastically limit local snowfall.

Very heavy snow is likely in upslope regions of the high plains to our west (ie western Nebraska) and perhaps also over portions of KS, but not here.

Now... let's look at some AFDs...

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 
1034 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
///snip///
GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST A PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENT   
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS SHORTWV RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS PLAINS   
SATURDAY AND THEN UPR FLOW BECOMES EVEN MORE SRLY SUNDAY AS RIDGE   
EITHER FLATTENS OUT OR MOVES EAST AND LARGE UPR LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT   
EWD.  DRY SFC-850 MB FLOW WILL KEEP A SHARP POP GRADIENT NEAR ERN   
ZONES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT NEVERTHELESS THE LIFT FORECAST   
APPEARED GREAT ENOUGH TO RAISE MOST POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH   
SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOKED LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER   
SIDE SATURDAY AS FORCING WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME LOW LVL DRY AIR.   
TEMPERATURES COULD MODERATE ENOUGH SAT TO ALLOW A CHANGE TO RAIN OR   
RAIN SNOW MIX AS FAR N AS A OLU-OMA-HNR LINE BY AFTN WITH PCPN ALL   
RAIN FAR S...AGAIN NO BIG CHANGES FM PREV FCST.  H6-H7 FRONTOGENESIS   
SETS UP AGAIN FROM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NRN ZONES AS   
ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTERED ON 300K SFC CONTINUES.  IN ADDITION...   
VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM GFS SHOWED A LONGER PERIOD OF SATURATED   
THETA E SFC SURFACES DECREASING WITH HGT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA   
INDICATING POSSIBLY HEAVIER QPF DUE TO ELEVATED CONVECTION AND/OR   
BANDING. HOWEVER...LOW LVL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE ECNTRL AND NERN   
ZONES REMAIN QUITE DRY WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SHARP BREAK   
IN SNOW/PCPN AMOUNTS. NONETHELESS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE FORCING   
APPEARED STRONG ENOUGH TO INCREASE MOST POPS SAT NGT THRU SUNDAY.   
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SRN ZONES INDICATED RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SLEET   
REMAINED POSSIBLE SUNDAY BUT MOVED UP BEGINNING TIME OF MENTION OF   
SLEET TO SAT NGT. SINCE HEAVIEST PCPN WRN ZONES WAS CENTERED ON THE   
5TH PERIOD DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST   
PACKAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE HIT SNOW HARD IN THE HWO AND FORWARD A   
48 HOUR SNOW FORECAST ENDING 12Z MONDAY TO THE WEB SITE.  TOTAL   
SNOWFALL FROM QPF FROM GFS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE OVERALL TOO   
HIGH...SPCLY OUTSIDE OF NWRN ZONES...GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND   
PROBABLE CONVECTION DVLPG OVER THE SRN PLAINS ROBBING SOME LOW LVL   
MOISTURE FOR SRN ZONES AND DRY ERLY/ESERLY FLOW OVER ECNTRL/NERN   
ZONES. 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 
401 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
///snip///
THE REGION WILL THEN BE HEADED TOWARD A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN   
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WEST COAST WAVE WILL DIG OVER THE   
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL THEN   
KICK EAST INTO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THIS   
WAVE...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC   
LIFT AND WAA/THETA E ADVECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS   
STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  INDIVIDUAL SPOKES   
OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE   
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND WILL PROVIDE THE EXTRA KICK TO PUSH   
MOISTURE INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND BEGIN PRECIPITATING.  LOOKS AS   
THOUGH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AFTER   
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL NOT STOP THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  THE MAIN   
QUESTION AT HAND IS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL SUPPORT RAIN   
VERSUS SNOW.  LOOKING AT THICKNESS PROGS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND   
ESTIMATED SURFACE TEMPERATURES IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SNOW WILL BE THE   
DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHILE RAIN   
DOMINATES ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WITH A MIX PREVAILS BETWEEN THESE   
AREAS.  PRECIP RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY   
THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS PER 6 HOURS WILL BE UNDER 2 TO 3   
INCHES...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER 5 TO 7 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE   
NEAR ORD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED   
VERY CLOSELY BY THE DAY CREW TO SEE IF SNOW RATES WILL BE HIGH   
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANY TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT. 
 
THE UPPER LOW THEN TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY   
MONDAY.  THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE AS USUAL AT KEEPING   
CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT   
IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT AS THE MODELS ARE VARYING FROM A   
CENTRAL PLAINS TRACK TO A SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACK.  WILL CHANGE LITTLE   
OVER THIS TIME PERIOD GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL KEEP HIGH   
CHANCES OF PRECIP GOING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS   
EXPECTED.  GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH THE PROLONGED   
PERIOD OF PRECIP LEADING UP TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE   
REGION...THE DAY CREW MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR   
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WELL.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 
257 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
///snip///
MAJOR WINTER STORM IS STILL APPROACHING...AND LOOKS TO TAKE AIM AT 
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT 
WEEK. 
 
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH 
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE REGION. AT 
THE SURFACE PESKY STRATUS BLANKETS CENTRAL NEBRASKA STRETCHING INTO 
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. STRATUS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE 
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...HOWEVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL 
LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY MOST OF THE DAY. VTN REMAINED UNDER STRATUS 
ALL DAY YESTERDAY AND HAD A HIGH OF 27 DEGREES...AND EXPECT THE 
STRATUS WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN AGAIN. 
 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST...AND 
INCREASING TO BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO 
USHER IN GULF MOISTURE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. 
 
MAIN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST TODAY 
REACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY. THEN THE TROUGH WILL 
MOVE ON AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. TROUGH 
WILL SENT SEVERAL WAVES AHEAD...INFLUENCING THE REGION STARTING 
SATURDAY. 
 
WATCH WAS ISSUED DURING THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND 
NORTH OF I 80...AND ALTHOUGH CONTEMPLATED UPPING THE START TIME... 
HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE AS IS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... 
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN...SOUTH...WILL BEGIN HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT 
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. MAJOR WAVE INFLUENCES THE REGION BY SATURDAY 
NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
SNOWY...ALTHOUGH WITH HIGH MARCH SUN ANGLE...ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT 
BE THAT HIGH. BY SUNDAY NIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL GET CRANKED UP 
AGAIN. 
 
MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH. THE UNUSUALLY 
LONG DURATION IS CAUSE FOR CONCERN AS SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A 
FOOT OR MORE. MARCH 24 HR RECORD SNOWFALL FOR BOTH VTN AND LBF ARE 
GREATER THAN A FOOT THUS HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS VERY POSSIBLE THIS TIME 
OF YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MAJOR WINTER STORM. 
 
LITTLE CHANGES DONE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER 
MODELS NOW BRINGING ANOTHER...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...SYSTEM FOR LATE IN 
THE WEEK. WILL OPT TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER RUN TO SEE A MORE CONSISTENT 
TRACK.

Here are the HWOs from OAX, GID, and LBF, respectively. I believe these forecast numbers are relatively reasonable...

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 
511 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
///snip///
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 
 
SNOW IS LIKELY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE 
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING. SLIGHTLY 
WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD EITHER CHANGE 
THE SNOW TO RAIN OR MELT MUCH OF THE SNOW AS IT FALLS LIMITING ANY 
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHTER 
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. 
 
DURING THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE IS 
A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.   
 
PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL 48 HOUR SNOWFALL 
AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING COULD BE 7 TO 
12 INCHES FROM MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD TO DAVID 
CITY AND SEWARD. MOST OF THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA COULD SEE 
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND THE SOUTHERN 
PART OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE 
POSSIBLE AS A MIX OF RAIN OR SLEET COULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 
ACTUAL SNOW DEPTHS MAY VARY BECAUSE THERE MAY BE SOME MELTING... 
AND IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SNOWING DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. 
LATER FORECASTS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE 
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS. 
 
ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. 
 
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST WILL BE RESPONSIBLE 
FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. DISTURBANCES 
LIFTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL 
PERIODS OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF FORECAST 
TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 
546 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
///snip///
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 
 
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START SATURDAY 
NIGHT AND MAY LAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 
WELL OVER 6 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. STRONG 
WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW RESULTING 
IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH 
THE PERIOD.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 
531 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006
///snip///
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 
 
A POWERFUL LATE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM ON WESTERN AND 
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING 
OVER PORTIONS OF WERSTERN NEBRASKA. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE 
MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ONTO THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS. ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES 
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.