NWS MIA Confirms a Strong Bermuda High, a Precursor?

[gatorcane]

One effect of the high building would be the lowering of the overall tropical Atlantic sea state. This promotes warmer water for two reasons:

1. Making the angle at which the sunlight heats the sea surface lower. This also lowers the surface area of the ocean itself. I can explain further if needed.

2. Less upwelling

Yes, please explain further...

[drezee]

I very simple terms think of it like a row of triangles.

^^^^^^^^^

The length of the two surfaces that collect sunlight is a factor of the height and the width of the triangle (or wave in this case). The formula would be the square root of 2 * [ (W/2)^2 + (H^2)]. So as the height of the wave increases so does the length of the surfaces and the surface area (using the surface area equation of a cone).

Also, the issue of the angle of reflectivity is the same as winter and summer. The closer the angle to 90 degrees the more direct sunlight the water receives...the warmer the SST’s can be.

[gatorcane]

quite a mathematical explanation, so what does this strong Bermuda high mean in terms of SSTs.?

[Scorpion]

Last year we kept getting front after front well into April and even May. I remember complaining that we never really got a spring because it kept getting cold. This year and 2004 are similar because it stopped getting cold at the beginning of March. Also, last year the flowers weren't blooming until late March when we got our first warm shot, this year the flowers have been blooming for a week.

[CHRISTY]

i have been trying to get info on what the bermuda high might be doing in the coming weeks...if anyone has info please post it thanks.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Boil baby boil! Atlantic Inferno!

[weatherwoman132]

haha..niice.......I hope it isnt like 2004, but I'd rather be 2004, than another 2005 with 4 category 5s.

[gatorcane]

i have been trying to get info on what the bermuda high might be doing in the coming weeks...if anyone has info please post it thanks.

The Bermuda High has held strong all winter according to the NWS Miami, I would say it will be here for the next few weeks also...

Latest NWS Mia discussion mentions some weak fronts (3 of them) that will try to move through S. Florida over the next week or so...none of them with any real precipitation chances as the ridge continues to hold fairly strong (with minor fluctuations) -

We will remain high and dry (no pun intended)..

[CHRISTY]

looks like no rain around here...

[gatorcane]

hmmmm...interesting, could it be a bad run? Looks like some sort of low, could it be tropical? GFS is showing the same thing. Maybe we should open a new discussion on what could be some kind of low forming off the coast of FL in about a week

[wxmann_91]

Don't worry about that low, it's probably a transient feature caused by convective feedback.

A strong Bermuda High this early is not a problem for Hurricane Season but it definitely will help moisture transport when coupled with a strong low like what was found on Sunday, and thus aid tornado outbreaks. Right now we are moving back toward a -NAO/+PNA pattern which pretty much kills the Bermuda High. However when the Bermuda High does come back we need to watch since longwave patterns can last for weeks, and if the strong Bermuda High can persist for about a month and only weaken for periods of only a few days, it means the general pattern will support a strong Bermuda High for the summer.

[skysummit]

Thanks for the explanation wxmann.

[gatorcane]

However when the Bermuda High does come back we need to watch since longwave patterns can last for weeks, and if the strong Bermuda High can persist for about a month and only weaken for periods of only a few days, it means the general pattern will support a strong Bermuda High for the summer.

Hmmm...according to the NWS Miami, it's been around all winter. What is your opinion about that?

[wxmann_91]

You're welcome Skysummit.

Boca Chris, the Bermuda High is always around. It is concerning though once it gets anomalously strong.

I also want to correct myself the previous post. The PNA is not going positive according to the CDC forecasts. The NAO though is going deeply negative.

[gatorcane]

thanks for the explanation. It is too strong for comfort right now...hopefully this longwave pattern will change for the summer..

[MiamiensisWx]

wxmann_91, how long do you think the negative NAO setup for now will last?

[gatorcane]

No matter how we avoid it, there is clearly a major longwave pattern underway that has been underway all winter and appears to be intensifying into spring now. I would be shocked if it suddenly vanishes come hurricane season. It's too similar to 2004....

Latest NWS Miami confirming the ridge not wanting to leave. Here is the latest discussion:

000
FXUS62 KMFL 150911
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
411 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEE AS
OF THIS WRITING WILL MOVE ACROSS S FLA THIS MORNING AND LIKELY BE
OFF THE SE CST BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH TEMP CHANGE WITH THE FRONT, BUT
MUCH DRIER AIR AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. ONLY HAVE A FEW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT AND ONE
LONELY SHRA SHOWING UP ON RADAR NEAR APF. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT ITSELF TO MENTION PRECIP IN THE FCST. A SECOND FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI BUT WILL WASH OUT OVER CENT FLA. THEN THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS FLA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SO A DRY WEEK IS IN STORE. AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE NE,
DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE MID 60S LATER THIS WEEK
FOR MORE HUMID CONDTIONS ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY OUT OF THE NNE THEN BECOME MORE
NE BY NOON AT SPEEDS OF 20 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE PBI
ATLANTIC WATERS AND 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LEG. SEAS
WILL BE BUILDING TO 8 FEET BY TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS RAPIDLY VEER TO THE E AND DECREASE IN SPEED.

[boca]

I said as a joke a couple of weeks ago it wouldn't rain until around June 1st. So far I'm right. I'm not expecting any real rainfall because of this weather pattern where in right now and I don't see it changing since we've been locked into it for 3 months now. Lets see if we can pull a Phoenix Arizona with 143 days without rainfall.

[gatorcane]

said as a joke a couple of weeks ago it wouldn't rain until around June 1st. So far I'm right. I'm not expecting any real rainfall because of this weather pattern where in right now and I don't see it changing since we've been locked into it for 3 months now. Lets see if we can pull a Phoenix Arizona with 143 days without rainfa

Mother nature always has a way to balance things out though....

[boca]

True Boca _Chris, but I don't see it this time since were in dry season anyway. It might balance out in June which is a long way off. Maybe will get some tropical waves this year.