3/16-18 Event: Initial Estimates

[donsutherland1]

Based on the latest model guidance and the reasonable continuity in the ensemble means, I believe the following is likely with the 3/16-18 event:

1) It will see its moisture erode as it heads eastward and that moisture won't be regained until it is moving out to sea. Hence, snowfall totals will fall off east of the Ohio Valley.
2) Drier air will help ensure a sharp cutoff. Therefore, even as the system moves off the central Delmarva Peninsula, accumulating snowfall will likely stay south of NYC.
3) Given the existence of a few more robust ensemble members, it is still a little soon to rule out minor accumulations in NYC, Long Island, and the Connecticut shore. However, odds currently favor no accumulation there.

Initial Estimates:
Allentown: 1" or less
Cleveland: 3"-6"
Detroit: 3"-6"
Harrisburg: 1"-3"
New York City: 0.5" or less
Newark: 0.5" or less
Philadelphia: 2" or less
Pittsburgh: 2"-4"

[ohiostorm]

I am going to be traveling from Pittsburgh to Niagara Falls then to NYC this coming weekend from Saturday to Monday. What can I expect on my journey?

[PurdueWx80]

Methinks this shall be a very interesting storm here in the Midwest, with a narrow band of 6-10"+ from SW Minnesota to NW Ohio. Though the Gulf won't be wide open, enough moisture should creep in to interact with the strong baroclinic zone, moderately strong mid-level system and favorable jet structure to produce intense convective snows for a few hours during the height of the storm - seems to be easier to get this in the Spring when you still have enough cold air remaining to interact with the rapidly warming low levels. I can even see how a few areas on the southern edge of the heavy snow might experience a bit of lightning and thunder Thursday.

I, for one, am ready for Spring but these late season storms are always a lot of fun.

[donsutherland1]

Given the continued trend toward a more southerly track, weaker storm, and drier solution, I have reduced my estimates:

Final Estimates:
Allentown: 1" or less
Cleveland: 2" or less
Detroit: 1"-3"
Harrisburg: 1" or less
New York City: None
Newark: None
Philadelphia: 1" or less
Pittsburgh: 2" or less

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

A most ugly outcome with widespread amounts of no snow.

From March 15, 2006: 12:30 am:
Allentown: 1" or less; Actual: None; Within range
Cleveland: 3"-6"; Actual: None; Error: 3.0"
Detroit: 3"-6"; Actual: None; Error: 3.0"
Harrisburg: 1"-3"; Actual: None; Error: 1.0"
New York City: 0.5" or less; Actual: None; Within range
Newark: 0.5" or less; Actual: None; Within range
Philadelphia: 2" or less; Actual: None; Within range
Pittsburgh: 2"-4"; Actual: None; Error: 2.0"

From March 15, 2006: 5:30 pm:
Allentown: 1" or less; Actual: None; Within range
Cleveland: 2" or less; Actual: None; Within range
Detroit: 1"-3"; Actual: None; Error: 1.0"
Harrisburg: 1" or less; Actual: None; Within range
New York City: None; Actual: None; Exact figure
Newark: None; Actual: None; Exact figure
Philadelphia: 1" or less; Actual: None; Within range
Pittsburgh: 2" or less; Actual: None; Within range

[ohiostorm]

We had rain showers last night, no snow.

[tomboudreau]

We had nothing here...not even a flurry...just had some mid-level clouds it appeared