MY EL NINO/LA NINA/NEUTRAL RESEARCH IS FINISHED

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok I have finally finished my research on el nino, la nina and neutral years. This is my first research on el nino, la nina that I have done so please go light on the critique. Thanks to Skeetobite Weather ( http://www.skeetobiteweather.com )I have found some interesting facts. If you would like a copy of my findings in excel spreadsheet form, (very detailed and lots of data) please private message me and I will send it to you. Here are some numbers I found. This excel workbook has a lot of data from 1950 to 2004. Later I will be posting more info on hurricanes with data in excel form from 1851 which will include all tropical systems in the atlantic basin.


From 1950 to 2004

Number of El Nino Years - 11
Number of La Nina Years - 12
Number of Neutral Years - 32

Number of Storms(Name and Un Named)

El Nino - 82
La Nina - 137
Neutral - 351

Number of Catagory 1 Storms

El Nino - 19
La Nina - 25
Neutral - 88

Number of Catagory 2 Storms

El Nino - 7
La Nina - 25
Neutral - 39

Number of Catagory 3 Storms

El Nino - 4
La Nina - 20
Neutral - 45

Number of Catagory 4 Storms

El Nino - 6
La Nina - 15
Neutral - 34

Number of Catagory 5 Storms

El Nino - 2
La Nina - 5
Neutral - 13

Number of Tropical Storms

El Nino - 44
La Nina - 58
Neutral - 133

Number of US hits (Tropical Storm to Catagory 5 hurricane)

El Nino - 30
La Nina - 41
Neutral - 107

[CHRISTY]

interesting findings...seems to me that neutal conditions are far worse in every aspect for the US...so far there saying la nina may be around the first part of 2006 but we will see, something tells me we may end up with neutral conditions once again.

[SouthFloridawx]

to tell you the truth I found it strange there were many storms in neutral years. I figured that La Nina would have more.

[SouthFloridawx]

PS please pm with your email address so i can send you a copy of my findings in excel form.

[CHRISTY]

yea come to think u would think la nina years would be more of a problem for the US....u know what iam watching?the famous bermuda high!hey i wonder if there is anyway we could get more info on what the bermuda high might be doing in the coming weeks...

[AussieMark]

it looks like more as its a total and there are more neutral years Vs ElNino/La Nina

can u show us that stats in a average form?

as that would be more even

[Hurricaneman]

I would have thought that La Nina would have more Tropical weather than Neutral years, But it seems I was wrong

[AussieMark]

the reason that neutral years seems like that is beacuse

From 1950 to 2004

Number of El Nino Years - 11
Number of La Nina Years - 12
Number of Neutral Years - 32


so there is around 2.6 X the amount of Neutral years to La Nina years over the period

so obviously Neutral years are going to heavily have the most storms

if these figures were to be converted to a average it would be more accurate

[SouthFloridawx]

ok here is your requested information. The catagory divided by the years of that occurance. Such as Total El Nino Storms / 11 years = 7.455 storms


Average Storms
El Nino 7.455
La Nina 11.417
Neutral 10.969

AVERAGE CAT 1
El Nino 7.455
La Nina 11.417
Neutral 10.969

AVERAGE CAT 2
El Nino 0.636
La Nina 1.167
Neutral 1.219

AVERAGE CAT 3
El Nino 0.364
La Nina 1.667
Neutral 1.406

AVERAGE CAT 4
El Nino 0.545
La Nina 1.250
Neutral 1.063

AVERAGE CAT 5
El Nino 0.182
La Nina 0.417
Neutral 0.406

AVERAGE TROPICAL STORMS
El Nino 4.000
La Nina 4.833
Neutral 4.156


AVERAGE US HITS
El Nino 2.727
La Nina 3.417
Neutral 3.344


AVERAGE NON US HITS
El Nino 4.727
La Nina 8.000
Neutral 7.625


i hope this is what your looking for.

[AussieMark]

yes thanks

[Ixolib]

One thing the results indicate for sure - whether in total or in average - is that anytime an El Nino is present, it spells trouble for tropical development:

Extreme
Likelihood that
Negligible
Intertropical
Numbers will be
Observed

Thanks, SFW!! Interesting stuff...

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks Ixolib

[hcane27]

What definition of el Nino/La Nina years are you using ???

[SouthFloridawx]

Warm (red) and cold (blue) episodes based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v2 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on the 1971-2000 base period. For historical purposes cold and warm episodes (blue and red colored numbers) are defined when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons

[Derek Ortt]

one potential flaw

you need to weight your results by the % occurrance of la nina, el nino, and neutral. There are 3X as many neutral years as el nino or la nina

oops, just saw in a later post that you addressed this question

[SouthFloridawx]

So as long as this la nina trend continues as far as historical data is concerned. Barring the conditions of La Nina stay we would see the following predictions in the Atlantic Basin for 2006

14 Tropical Storms
7-8 Hurricanes
3-4 Major Hurricanes
3-4 Storms Impacting Directly impacting the us

Now there are obviously other conditions that affect tropical development in the atlantic basin such as SST's, Shear, and other factors. I would say that if SST's are above normal in the atlantic and there is relatively low shear in may then when you make your prediction for 2006 hurricane season you could raise the predictions as seeing fit to do so.

[ROCK]

So as long as this la nina trend continues as far as historical data is concerned. Barring the conditions of La Nina stay we would see the following predictions in the Atlantic Basin for 2006

14 Tropical Storms
7-8 Hurricanes
3-4 Major Hurricanes
3-4 Storms Impacting Directly impacting the us

Now there are obviously other conditions that affect tropical development in the atlantic basin such as SST's, Shear, and other factors. I would say that if SST's are above normal in the atlantic and there is relatively low shear in may then when you make your prediction for 2006 hurricane season you could raise the predictions as seeing fit to do so.

good post. Thanks for sharing...

[SouthFloridawx]

do download the file just go to http://www5.upload2.net/file22/JyKKf/Ao ... eutral.xls and if you have microsoft excel it will automatically pull up with it.

[dhweather]

ok here is your requested information. The catagory divided by the years of that occurance. Such as Total El Nino Storms / 11 years = 7.455 storms


Average Storms
El Nino 7.455
La Nina 11.417
Neutral 10.969

AVERAGE CAT 1
El Nino 7.455
La Nina 11.417
Neutral 10.969

AVERAGE CAT 2
El Nino 0.636
La Nina 1.167
Neutral 1.219

AVERAGE CAT 3
El Nino 0.364
La Nina 1.667
Neutral 1.406

AVERAGE CAT 4
El Nino 0.545
La Nina 1.250
Neutral 1.063

AVERAGE CAT 5
El Nino 0.182
La Nina 0.417
Neutral 0.406

AVERAGE TROPICAL STORMS
El Nino 4.000
La Nina 4.833
Neutral 4.156


AVERAGE US HITS
El Nino 2.727
La Nina 3.417
Neutral 3.344


AVERAGE NON US HITS
El Nino 4.727
La Nina 8.000
Neutral 7.625


i hope this is what your looking for.

Excellent summary! Interesting to know this information.

[Jim Hughes]

to tell you the truth I found it strange there were many storms in neutral years. I figured that La Nina would have more.

The increased activity during the past decade has skewed the averages away from showing a La Nina relationship. I believe that certain variables may be just as important as the La Nina but this does not mean that the latter is any less important now.



Jim