NWS MIA Confirms a Strong Bermuda High, a Precursor?

[gatorcane]

the pattern can change almost overnight. In 2004, in August there was a deep trough near the EC, which brought everything into the Carolinas, giving them 3 canes in a month. After Gaston and Hermine moved out, a long wave ridge set up, yielding Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. The pattern can change, which is why I do not pay any attention to what is currently going on

Derek I agree it is early but this strong high is not typical this early. In fact I don't remember the last time it has been so strong so early so I don't think we can just ignore it. I have lived in FL for over 20 years and I don't recall seeing this pattern (except spring 2004 season was similar).Deep troughs do erode this high but only a couple of times this winter so far. In fact as a write this it looks and feels like an August day out there (Boca Raton area, the temps are a bit cooler but that is only because of the relatively cooler water temps keeping them down and strong Southeasterlies) and we are only in March.

[Derek Ortt]

but in 2004, we had a very strong trough over the EC in August, despite a strong high present in March. Who is to say that this time, this trough wont persist for the whole season, bringing everything into Carolina

[SouthFloridawx]

Shows the high pressure.

Additionally checking out the new gfs run today and there is some rain in our forecast for south floirda. Wohooo...

[gatorcane]

but in 2004, we had a very strong trough over the EC in August, despite a strong high present in March. Who is to say that this time, this trough wont persist for the whole season, bringing everything into Carolina

When we haven't had a strong Bermuda High in the spring, it seems that this High is not as strong later in the season. Even though I absolutely agree that a strong High in Spring doesn't mean it will be around at the heart of the season, I think that it increases the likelyhood.

I would love to see some research about the chances of a dominant Bermuda High feature Aug - September given a strong Bermuda High in March - May.

[corpusbreeze]

It looks to me if this high holds out that the gulf coast has another long and destructive season in store.

[Opal storm]

It looks to me if this high holds out that the gulf coast has another long and destructive season in store.

Hopefully it backs off by the time Aug/Sept comes around.

[gatorcane]

Looking like hints of summer:

QUICK UPDATED TO ADD 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST COAST
AND EAST COAST AREAS THIS EVENING...AS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
END LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY LOST. REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

Looks like a front will make it through this week and shift the winds to the NW.

[weatherwoman132]

a weak, very weak front.....only will drop us down to about 80 for our high, from like 86. SO hotttt.

[SouthFloridawx]

It is perfect out tonight.

[JonathanBelles]

its a muggy 67 degrees here

[gatorcane]

It's a muggy here at 74 with a nice E wind at about 10-15Knots. Latest discussion showing the near record upper 80s for interior peninsula FL and the approach of a very weak front that will only barely lower the temps. Winds will shift around to the NW though. But new model guidance is showing a quick return back to the easterlies by Thu.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 140142 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
842 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006

<snippet>

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...SFC HIGH/RIDGE CENTERED AROUND 30N 63W WITH RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA/NORTHERN GULF. COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG MISSISSIPPI VALLEYY THEN SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE UPPER LEVEL...A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA AND NORTH ACROSS ERN U.S. DEEP LAYER LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED WITH SOUTHERN PORTION FORCED TO
RETREAT WEST INTO SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX WHILE NORTHERN PORTION WILL
BE PUSHED EAST BY THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
WILL THEN HELP TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT (MENTIONED ABOVE) SOUTH
ACROSS THE PENINSULA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MAKE IT TO SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL BE SO
DIFFUSE/WEAK THAT NO SIGNIFICANT WX SHOULD BE EXPECTED. A SECOND
FRONT WILL MOVE TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS.

MARINE...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AOB
15 KTS TILL FROPA TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO
NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA AND INCREASE RAPIDLY TO 15 TO 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS IN
THE GULFSTREAM WILL REACH A PEAK BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND START
SUBSIDING TOWARD THU MORNING.

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

[boca]

Actually you can't call these cold fronts because theirs no cold air behind them just fronts because the days in the 70's for highs are over. We're in for a long hurricane season folks.

[gatorcane]

Actually you can't call these cold fronts because theirs no cold air behind them just fronts because the days in the 70's for highs are over. We're in for a long hurricane season folks.

In a typical year FL will see a couple of more weather-changing cold fronts between now and June before the real heat engine kicks in....but I'm afraid you could be right about this year Boca as the days of the 70s are long over and 90s are looming in the near distant future.

[boca]

Drought index for Palm Bch County is 531. Severe drought is 600.

[MiamiensisWx]

Listen to the latest Miami NWS discussion on these segments...

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AND YUCUTAN AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
S FLA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME DIFFUSE. ONLY
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHRA WITH THE FRONT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT IT IS BECOMING DOUBTFUL WHETHER
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
NEARLY ZONAL. AT ANY RATE, NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE WAY OF WX THIS
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS FAIRLY CALM THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN SE TO S
AT LESS THAN 15 KT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO SCA CRITERIA AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN RAPIDLY VEER TO THE E ON
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ATLANTIC.

[gatorcane]

Yep, this ridge that has been around all winter is here to stay for a while. I just can't see it "disappearing" for hurricane season.

[windycity]

EEEEk i would say that the Bermuda High is here to stay. I do think that we are in for a very long and tiring hurricane season. Hey, im tired already!

[skysummit]

I just asked the Magic 8 Ball if the Bermuda High would stay around through August. It said "Definately". I then asked it if we were in for a boring hurricane season, and it said "Not A Chance". That's all the forecasting I need! Up goes the plywood!

[gatorcane]

I just asked the Magic 8 Ball if the Bermuda High would stay around through August. It said "Definately". I then asked it if we were in for a boring hurricane season, and it said "Not A Chance". That's all the forecasting I need! Up goes the plywood!

lol

[drezee]

One effect of the high building would be the lowering of the overall tropical Atlantic sea state. This promotes warmer water for two reasons:

1. Making the angle at which the sunlight heats the sea surface lower. This also lowers the surface area of the ocean itself. I can explain further if needed.

2. Less upwelling