SOUTH PACIFIC: TD 14F

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 13/2316 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F CENTRE 1002HPA ANALYSED NEAR 19S 170E AT
132100UTC SLOW-MOVING. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS BUT IS DISPLACED ABOUT 120 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTRE. UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 20 KNOTS OVER
CENTRE. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS CAPTURE
THE SYSTEM BUT DO NOT INTENSIFY IT. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Does the south pacific get any big systems at this time of year or at any time of the year?

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 14/2322 UTC 2006 UTC.

WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.5S 169.5E AT
141800UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST NEAR 29C.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DETACHED FROM CENTRE TO THE EAST. 14F LIES TO
THE EAST OF A SLOW MOVING 250 HPA TROUGH. CIMMS INDICATES THAT THE
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT THIS STAGE AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS DRIFT 14F SOUTHWARDS BUT DO NOT INTENSIFY IT. POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 15/0904 UTC 2006 UTC.

WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.5S 169.0E AT
150600UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. SST NEAR 29C.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DETACHED FROM CENTRE TO THE EAST. 14F LIES TO
THE EAST OF A SLOW MOVING 250 HPA TROUGH IN A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
INCREASING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS MOVE 14F SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS BUT DO NOT
INTENSIFY IT. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 15/2320 UTC 2006 UTC.

WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.5S 171.5E AT
152100UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. SST NEAR
29C.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DETACHED FROM CENTRE TO THE SOUTHEAST. 14F
LIES TO THE EAST OF A SLOW MOVING 250 HPA TROUGH IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA
OF INCREASING SHEAR AND ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE
SUPPRESSED. GLOBAL MODELS MOVE 14F SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS BUT DO NOT
INTENSIFY IT BUT WEAKEN IT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.