My 2006 Prediction Fad Topic.

[Weatherfreak000]

Water Temps in the GOM, if they hold up as they are now are likely to sustain a Category Five Hurricane into the Northern Gulf.


That will probably be the highest shot for worst case scenario hurricane we've seen in years.

[cheezyWXguy]

Water Temps in the GOM, if they hold up as they are now are likely to sustain a Category Five Hurricane into the Northern Gulf.


That will probably be the highest shot for worst case scenario hurricane we've seen in years.

So ur saying that the if the temps in the GOM stay the same, its warm enough to support a CAT 5 hurricane?

[Weatherfreak000]

Water Temps in the GOM, if they hold up as they are now are likely to sustain a Category Five Hurricane into the Northern Gulf.


That will probably be the highest shot for worst case scenario hurricane we've seen in years.

So ur saying that the if the temps in the GOM stay the same, its warm enough to support a CAT 5 hurricane?

Well actually I mistyped that. Given the current pace we're in the gulf stream will likely be able to sustain a Cat 5 thru the Warm Eddy into Lousiana/Miss. But as it is yeah a major cane could sustain itself in the gulf stream. In March for christ's sake this is crazy.


I think our best chance to beat out Wilma is for another Katrina/Rita. I think ebcause of lack of Artic Fronts penetrating the Gulf and Warmer then Normal conditions the gulf stream will be the most powerful ever before seen.

[cheezyWXguy]

ok...now thats freakin scary

[ROCK]

Water Temps in the GOM, if they hold up as they are now are likely to sustain a Category Five Hurricane into the Northern Gulf.


That will probably be the highest shot for worst case scenario hurricane we've seen in years.

So ur saying that the if the temps in the GOM stay the same, its warm enough to support a CAT 5 hurricane?

Well actually I mistyped that. Given the current pace we're in the gulf stream will likely be able to sustain a Cat 5 thru the Warm Eddy into Lousiana/Miss. But as it is yeah a major cane could sustain itself in the gulf stream. In March for christ's sake this is crazy.


I think our best chance to beat out Wilma is for another Katrina/Rita. I think ebcause of lack of Artic Fronts penetrating the Gulf and Warmer then Normal conditions the gulf stream will be the most powerful ever before seen.

I agree with the higher ssts in the GOM. Not much cool down during the winter. But you must remember ssts are not the only factor involved in sustaining a cat 5 all the way to landfall. There is a reason why only a few have made landfall.....

[Weatherfreak000]

Water Temps in the GOM, if they hold up as they are now are likely to sustain a Category Five Hurricane into the Northern Gulf.


That will probably be the highest shot for worst case scenario hurricane we've seen in years.

So ur saying that the if the temps in the GOM stay the same, its warm enough to support a CAT 5 hurricane?

Well actually I mistyped that. Given the current pace we're in the gulf stream will likely be able to sustain a Cat 5 thru the Warm Eddy into Lousiana/Miss. But as it is yeah a major cane could sustain itself in the gulf stream. In March for christ's sake this is crazy.


I think our best chance to beat out Wilma is for another Katrina/Rita. I think ebcause of lack of Artic Fronts penetrating the Gulf and Warmer then Normal conditions the gulf stream will be the most powerful ever before seen.

I agree with the higher ssts in the GOM. Not much cool down during the winter. But you must remember ssts are not the only factor involved in sustaining a cat 5 all the way to landfall. There is a reason why only a few have made landfall.....

True, but Katrina was showing promise of rewrapping convection if it had time to complete an ERC. Which is of course another feature of determining intensity at landfall. But hopefully this issue won't ever come into question obviously.

[ROCK]

Katrina was ingesting dry air and transversing cooler waters. Her ERC played a part in her weakening as well as the other things mentioned above. You have to have perfect conditions to sustain a cat 5. Kat didn't have it....Hopefully, we never see a Andrew type storm....

[weatherwoman132]

wow. who would think....in MARCH

[Weatherfreak000]

Yeah, well after some consideration folks I have decided to lay low on giving a storm by storm analysis because given what i'm seeing for this season's set-up I wouldn't wanna freak/anger people when I would have to forecast another New Orleans strike or Florida hit which is probably unfortunately what will happen again.



So i'm going to just leave it at this, The GOM will see alot of strikes next year. Although i'd like to believe most will be weak early season storms going in say Mexico or Texas I wouldn't bank on it.


As Hurricane Season starts, look for wave remnant lows and spin-ups reaching the GOM and Caribbean and developing quickly. I think we'll likely start the season with a GOM spin up and probably some Yucatan arriving storms possibly even rivaling Emily and Dennis given SST's. So yes come June/July I think we'll have another major cane into the Caribbean.


August watch the ITCZ zone carefully, if it spins out waves that are constantly hampered by harsh wind shear don't given up on them because like several strong circulations of 05' showed us, it's not over till the fat lady sings. I think if come August/Sept the waves survive the shear and become Cape Verde storms the East Coast should be ready for a possible hit and the GOM can breathe a sigh of release for this year.

However, if they don't survive and the waves travel to the Bahamas like Rita/Tammy/Katrina/Ophelia I'd be willing to put money on a system getting into the GOM past SE Florida or possibly under it and just booming.


The patterns i'm watching for are SST's and Wind Shear values off the Coast of Africa, the Gulf Stream obviously and the Ridge. If they set up as they did in 05' i'd say the N Gulf Coast better be VERY VERY weary of Katrina all over again.


And also for our East Coast residents this year i'd definitely monitor the waves coming from Africa and look for strong early development because these are signs that will likely given you your greatest threat for activity. More then likely the ridge will set up to keep any CV Storm developing out to sea but I wouldn't be surprised if one storm sneaks by and hits SE Florida or NC/SC.

[weatherwoman132]

I hate hear se florida........

[ROCK]

Yeah, well after some consideration folks I have decided to lay low on giving a storm by storm analysis because given what i'm seeing for this season's set-up I wouldn't wanna freak/anger people when I would have to forecast another New Orleans strike or Florida hit which is probably unfortunately what will happen again.



So i'm going to just leave it at this, The GOM will see alot of strikes next year. Although i'd like to believe most will be weak early season storms going in say Mexico or Texas I wouldn't bank on it.


As Hurricane Season starts, look for wave remnant lows and spin-ups reaching the GOM and Caribbean and developing quickly. I think we'll likely start the season with a GOM spin up and probably some Yucatan arriving storms possibly even rivaling Emily and Dennis given SST's. So yes come June/July I think we'll have another major cane into the Caribbean.


August watch the ITCZ zone carefully, if it spins out waves that are constantly hampered by harsh wind shear don't given up on them because like several strong circulations of 05' showed us, it's not over till the fat lady sings. I think if come August/Sept the waves survive the shear and become Cape Verde storms the East Coast should be ready for a possible hit and the GOM can breathe a sigh of release for this year.

However, if they don't survive and the waves travel to the Bahamas like Rita/Tammy/Katrina/Ophelia I'd be willing to put money on a system getting into the GOM past SE Florida or possibly under it and just booming.


The patterns i'm watching for are SST's and Wind Shear values off the Coast of Africa, the Gulf Stream obviously and the Ridge. If they set up as they did in 05' i'd say the N Gulf Coast better be VERY VERY weary of Katrina all over again.


And also for our East Coast residents this year i'd definitely monitor the waves coming from Africa and look for strong early development because these are signs that will likely given you your greatest threat for activity. More then likely the ridge will set up to keep any CV Storm developing out to sea but I wouldn't be surprised if one storm sneaks by and hits SE Florida or NC/SC.

good post. I agree. I have been thinking 2-4 GOM landfalls this year though I think the N GOM will get a break. We shall know more as MAY rolls around...

[weatherwoman132]

haha.

[Weatherfreak000]

haha.

I'm glad your amused....over w/e it is that amuses you.

[weatherwoman132]

wow. I didnt mean to put a "haha" there. my bad.

[Patrick99]

I don't know if I'd have Hispaniola and Cuba at such low risk.

SFL and NCarolina are basically at risk for any given year. We've been hit in active seasons, we've been hit in inactive seasons.

[mike815]

yup true were always in the cross hairs

[Weatherfreak000]

W Cuba is the only place in mind that has any real risk. I mean sure storms go by that area alot but they don't make landfall.


In fact to prove this i've seperated these Numbers into three Categories, with a neat little graphic to boot lol.





So yes, Hispaniola does see it's fair share of hits but the fact of it is it's RARE for a storm to track past it unless it's developing right on it (Jeanne, Alpha). I believe this atmospheric patterns won't allow a storm into Hispaniola. So it's more of a matter of opinion.


(Note: Yes I know about the 06 Lili Error, it's correct year should be 1996)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think we may also have a cat4 in the Gulf. But over all it seems to be just above normal this year. Also my forecast numbers could be on the high side. The Atlantic is cooling off fast.

[weatherwoman132]

W Cuba is the only place in mind that has any real risk. I mean sure storms go by that area alot but they don't make landfall.


In fact to prove this i've seperated these Numbers into three Categories, with a neat little graphic to boot lol.





So yes, Hispaniola does see it's fair share of hits but the fact of it is it's RARE for a storm to track past it unless it's developing right on it (Jeanne, Alpha). I believe this atmospheric patterns won't allow a storm into Hispaniola. So it's more of a matter of opinion.


(Note: Yes I know about the 06 Lili Error, it's correct year should be 1996)

why does it have a 2006 lili that hit there?

[weatherwoman132]

oh nvm. lol