Possible Big Warmup for Great Lakes/East Next Week

[donsutherland1]

Latest MEX figures:

Boston:
3/3 12z run: 40°
3/4 0z run: 53°
3/4 12z run: 57°
3/5 0z run: 57°
3/5 12z run: 60°
3/6 0z run: 55°
3/6 12z run: 59°
3/7 0z run: 61°
3/7 12z run: 58°
3/8 0z run: 57°
3/8 12z run: 59°

Detroit:
3/3 12z run: 56°
3/4 0z run: 58°
3/4 12z run: 60°
3/5 0z run: 56°
3/5 12z run: 59°
3/6 0z run: 61°
3/6 12z run: 59°
3/7 0z run: 58°
3/7 12z run: 57°
3/8 0z run: 61°
3/8 12z run: 67°

New York City:
3/3 12z run: 51°
3/4 0z run: 60°
3/4 12z run: 61°
3/5 0z run: 65°
3/5 12z run: 66°
3/6 0z run: 60°
3/6 12z run: 62°
3/7 0z run: 62°
3/7 12z run: 64°
3/8 0z run: 63°
3/8 12z run: 63°

Philadelphia:
3/3 12z run: 59°
3/4 0z run: 64°
3/4 12z run: 61°
3/5 0z run: 65°
3/5 12z run: 68°
3/6 0z run: 65°
3/6 12z run: 65°
3/7 0z run: 65°
3/7 12z run: 66°
3/8 0z run: 71°
3/8 12z run: 66°

Richmond:
3/3 12z run: 71°
3/4 0z run: 73°
3/4 12z run: 77°
3/5 0z run: 72°
3/5 12z run: 73°
3/6 0z run: 72°
3/6 12z run: 71°
3/7 0z run: 74°
3/7 12z run: 77°
3/8 0z run: 75°
3/8 12z run: 75°

Washington, DC (DCA):
3/3 12z run: 69°
3/4 0z run: 68°
3/4 12z run: 70°
3/5 0z run: 71°
3/5 12z run: 72°
3/6 0z run: 71°
3/6 12z run: 69°
3/7 0z run: 70°
3/7 12z run: 70°
3/8 0z run: 72°
3/8 12z run: 73°

[donsutherland1]

Jim,

It will be tough. The best chance might entail rain ending as snow following the passage of a cold front, but the models will still need to change for that to happen. Fortunately, there's still some time left for changes.

[donsutherland1]

Latest MEX guidance:

Detroit:
3/3 12z run: 56°
3/4 0z run: 58°
3/4 12z run: 60°
3/5 0z run: 56°
3/5 12z run: 59°
3/6 0z run: 61°
3/6 12z run: 59°
3/7 0z run: 58°
3/7 12z run: 57°
3/8 0z run: 61°
3/8 12z run: 67°

New York City:
3/3 12z run: 51°
3/4 0z run: 60°
3/4 12z run: 61°
3/5 0z run: 65°
3/5 12z run: 66°
3/6 0z run: 60°
3/6 12z run: 62°
3/7 0z run: 62°
3/7 12z run: 64°
3/8 0z run: 63°
3/8 12z run: 63°

Philadelphia:
3/3 12z run: 59°
3/4 0z run: 64°
3/4 12z run: 61°
3/5 0z run: 65°
3/5 12z run: 68°
3/6 0z run: 65°
3/6 12z run: 65°
3/7 0z run: 65°
3/7 12z run: 66°
3/8 0z run: 71°
3/8 12z run: 66°

Richmond:
3/3 12z run: 71°
3/4 0z run: 73°
3/4 12z run: 77°
3/5 0z run: 72°
3/5 12z run: 73°
3/6 0z run: 72°
3/6 12z run: 71°
3/7 0z run: 74°
3/7 12z run: 77°
3/8 0z run: 75°
3/8 12z run: 75°

Washington, DC (DCA):
3/3 12z run: 69°
3/4 0z run: 68°
3/4 12z run: 70°
3/5 0z run: 71°
3/5 12z run: 72°
3/6 0z run: 71°
3/6 12z run: 69°
3/7 0z run: 70°
3/7 12z run: 70°
3/8 0z run: 72°
3/8 12z run: 73°[/quote]

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

...based on the latest guidance, an even more impressive bout of warmth appears likely. Based on the latest data, that warmth should crest in the 3/9-13 period.

Right now, I’m thinking that the highest temperature during the 3/8-15 period will likely reach at least:

Boston: 55° or above
Detroit: 60° or above
New York City: 65° or above
Philadelphia: 65° or above
Washington, DC: 68° or above

Moreover, it would not surprise me if the temperature reached 70° in at least Washington, DC and perhaps Philadelphia and even New York City. 60° or above should not be ruled out for Boston.

Highest Readings:
Boston: 66°, March 10
Detroit: 69°, March 13
New York City: 74°, March 10
Philadelphia: 78°, March 13
Washington, DC (DCA): 85°, March 13