NWS MIA Confirms a Strong Bermuda High, a Precursor?

[MiamiensisWx]

Does this look familiar? I think a track very similar to this - my Florence scenario - may well happen this year, only the landfall will be further south near Fort Lauderdale. Do you agree?

[SouthFloridawx]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 101836
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WEATHER NEXT 72 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND RAIN WILL BE NEARLY NONEXISTENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DIP DOWN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH. LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. MEX MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY BIG CHANGES FOR
NOW. STILL NO SIGN OF ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST POPS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FLAG
OVERNIGHT FOR ATLANTIC WATERS AND OUTER GULF WATERS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE UNTIL SOMETIME ON
SATURDAY. REMAINDER FORECASTS OKAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN NORTHERLY
FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NO PROBLEMS/CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 70 84 / 5 5 5 5
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 83 72 83 / 5 5 5 5
MIAMI 70 83 70 84 / 5 5 5 5
NAPLES 64 84 64 83 / 5 5 5 5

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[gatorcane]

interesting, Miami NWS is backing off on the cold front that they thought would clear the state mid next week....hmmm....ridge is somewhat stronger than they thought.

and NO rain.

looks alot like 2004...

[MiamiensisWx]

Here we go... maybe...

[boca]

When will they use the word water restrictions.

[Scorpion]

Temps have been pretty nice so far. Not too warm, but not cool either. Its perfect. Also, without any rain, it means that outdoor plans won't get cancelled .

[HurricaneHunter914]

Temps have been pretty nice so far. Not too warm, but not cool either. Its perfect. Also, without any rain, it means that outdoor plans won't get cancelled .

My families outdoor plans were cancelled though, my mom changed her mind about going to the beach and staying at a beach house for two days!

[weatherwoman132]

true. wow. those temperatures are pretty upsetting to me. it's only march. wow. it's gonna get hotter. a lot hotter. but now, I am happily enjoying the mid-80s.

[boca]

This is from the Miami Disscussion on March 11th a precursor to hurricane season 06.

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN..GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC HAS BEEN THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE ALL
WINTER. SO FAR THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS DURING
WHICH A TROUGH HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DIG DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. AND BRING COLD AIR TO OUR ZONES. THESE WERE THE TWO FREEZE
SITUATIONS WE HAD EARLIER IN THE WINTER. SINCE THIS UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE..ANY FRONTS THAT WE HAVE MOVE INTO OUR ZONES
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO BRING ANY BIG TEMPERATURE CHANGES WITH THEM.
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THEM WILL MAINLY MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC TO OUR
NORTH. ALSO THIS UPPER RIDGE HAS GENERALLY PREVENTED ANY DEEP FLOW
OF MOISTURE FROM RETURNING AHEAD OF ANY FRONT SO WE HAVE ALSO HAD
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THEM. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WAS IN THE
PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING IN
OUR DIRECTION UNTIL LATE TOMORROW. WHAT IS LEFT OF IT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE IN OUR VICINITY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT AFTER THAT IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
ZONES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEITHER OF THESE FRONTS SHOULD
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS. THEIR TWO MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS

[Scorpion]

Wow. This year is much different than last year. Last year it got cold well into March and even April with frontal passages and such. This year the temps looks steady in the upper 70's low 80's, about average for this time of year. And they don't look to be budging anytime soon. We really need to see how long this lasts. If it lasts well into May, then all I can say is .

[Windtalker1]

Temps are expected to reach a high of 87 by Tuesday, The water temp off Ft Lauderdale has jumpped 4 degrees in a week from 72 to 76... whats it going to be like June-Sept...We'll have to wait and see.

[MiamiensisWx]

After the passage of a front, the ridge is expected to build back in... latest from Miami NWS...

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS SEVERAL
DISCUSSIONS. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND S FLA WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT WESTWARD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THIS
RIDGE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS S FLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT WILL LACK
ANY REAL PUSH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH WILL THEN BRIDGE
OVER THE FRONT. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE MID LATITUDES WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING FIRM OVER THE CARIBBEAN,
NOT MUCH PUSH WITH THIS SYSTEM EITHER. BOTH FRONTS WILL HAVE LACK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SO NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEK.

000
FLUS42 KMFL 121510 CCA
HWOMFL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1009 AM EST SUN MAR 12 2006

FLZ063-066>075-131100-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
1009 AM EST SUN MAR 12 2006

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: SOME RIP CURRENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING BY THE
BEACH PATROL. THE RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF TODAY...AS
THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 15 MPH. THE MOST DANGEROUS
TIME FOR THE RIP CURRENTS WILL BE AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE
WHICH WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH MONDAY
ALONG WITH LOW TIDE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS GOING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MONDAY.

THE CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY, AS THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE WINDS FOR MIDDLE TO
LATE THIS WEEK WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST ALONG
WITH LOW TIDE DURING THE DAY HOURS. THEREFORE, THE CHANCE OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL RETURN BACK TO THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO LATE THIS WEEK.

THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM BY
WEDNESDAY, DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 7 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY, AS THE WINDS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUIRED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.
$$

BAXTER

[CHRISTY]

sounds like the ridge is holding firm....

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep, it is right now!

[windycity]

yeh, this is what it did two years ago, it remained stationary for a very long time. Im afraid this doesnt look good for any of us in hurricane alley. The GOM and the entire east coast is at high risk fof different reasons. Usually its one area or another but this year i think it will be a toss up .

[MiamiensisWx]

It's fairly dry and warm outside right now. Isolated showers are coming in from the Atlantic with easterly breezes.

[Scorpion]

The flowers are coming out much earlier than last year. Additonally, I see alot of dry grass around. It hasn't really rained much here at all recently.

[weatherwoman132]

here too. it's been about 3 weeks or so.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree, Scorpion!

[Javlin]

Well this does not bode well for FL and the GOM at all let's hope there will be some give in this later.For me still way to early to start worring as of yet.