WPAC: 94W Invest

[Coredesat]

The remnants of 01W seem to have split into two LLCCs (as mentioned in the JTWC discussion earlier) - one of these seems to be producing some pretty good convection:

94WINVEST.25kt-1002mb

[JonathanBelles]

can you show an image with both llcc's and label them?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yes!! Something to watch.

[HURAKAN]

Yes!! Something to watch.

Something to watch in a very desolate weekend for tropical cyclones around the world!

[Coredesat]

The convection seems quite well organized. I guess the other LLC has dissipated.

[HurricaneHunter914]

What's the next typhoon name if this cyclone gets named.

[Coredesat]

I believe the next name is Chanchu.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Thanks, and I'm wondering does the WPAC get many storms this time of year?

[HURAKAN]

Thanks, and I'm wondering does the WPAC get many storms this time of year?

One or two, but it's not uncommon for March to go by without a named storm in the WPAC.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 110600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 992 HPA
AT 33N 151E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 33N 151E TO 34N 153E 34N 156E.
WARM FRONT FROM 34N 156E TO 32N 160E 30N 164E.
COLD FRONT FROM 34N 156E TO 27N 153E 22N 147E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 600
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 37N 167E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 976 HPA
AT 55N 176W BERING SEA MOVING NORTH 20 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1100 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 992 HPA AT 57N 169E
ALMOST STATIONARY.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 46N 140E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 140E TO 47N 144E 46N 147E.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 140E TO 41N 137E 37N 130E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING
OVER EAST CHINA SEA FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF SEA OF JAPAN MIDDLE
OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 118E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 28N 136E EAST 20 KT.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 36N 172E ESE 20 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 109E TO 28N 113E 29N 117E 28N 120E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

11/0833 UTC 9.8N 117.4E T1.5/1.5 94W

[Coredesat]

POOF!

[weatherwoman132]

where is this located?

[Coredesat]

10.6N 115.2E, west of the Philippines.

[HurricaneHunter914]

What is the chance of it becoming a cyclone?

[Coredesat]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.6N 115.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM. RECENT
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION IS FLARING AND
STARTING TO BECOME BETTER CONSOLIDATED AROUND A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DECREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND A 111801Z AMSR-E PASS DEPICTS A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD LINES CONVERGING TO THE LLCC. 111800Z SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS REPORT LIGHT WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUSTAINED 850
MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
GIVEN THE LACK OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HurricaneHunter914]

So I guess this is not going to get very far from being an invest.

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneHunter914]

AMEN TO THAT!

[HURAKAN]

LOOKS INTERESTING, BUT THAT'S ALL!