We can ONLY HOPE

[Stephanie]

I saw on the radar map on the home page snow sitting right over Pinetop. I was hoping it wasn't just verga!

[azsnowman]

Well................don't quite know WHAT to think NOW

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 PM MST WED MAR 08 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-091900-
BLACK MESA AREA-CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
COCONINO PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN APACHE CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN COCONINO CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN NAVAJO CO-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF 264-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS 264 NORTH-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE
MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
935 PM MST WED MAR 08 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE BY THIS WEEKEND..

A POWERFUL WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE WEST
COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS STORM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING MUCH
OF ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST PART OF THE STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...GUSTS
TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON...ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
FRIDAY...ALONG WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY FALL TO AROUND
4000 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SNOW LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE CRASHING TO 3000 FEET OR LOWER
SUNDAY.

AS THE STORM FULLY DEVELOPS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME STEADY AND
HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
HEAVIEST PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS...BUT MANY AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET ARE LIKELY TO SEE AT
LEAST 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET LIKELY TOO SEE
A FOOT OR MORE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

[azsnowman]

1605 hrs. MST and it's STILL holding.......getting pretty darn SCARY to say the least (scary part being that the systems STILL coming!)

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 092226 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 320 PM MST THU MAR 09 2006 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ELEVATIONS DOWN TO BELOW 4000 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND. AREAS ABOVE 6000 FEET WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

[azsnowman]

Ask and ye shall receive............

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1229 PM MST FRI MAR 10 2006


AZZ004-006>008-015>017-110200-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.SB.Y.0001.060310T1929Z-060311T0200Z/
/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.A.0001.060311T1300Z-060312T1300Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-COCONINO PLATEAU-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA..
GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...SUPAI...NORTH RIM...VALLE...PRESCOTT..
SELIGMAN...ASH FORK...FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK...HEBER..
HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP
1229 PM MST FRI MAR 10 2006

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING..
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AS SNOWFALL SO
FAR TODAY HAS BEEN HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED. THIS SNOWFALL WHEN
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANG WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH HAS CREATED WIDESPREAD AREAS WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE. THESE AREAS INCLUDE
INTERSTATE 40 FROM TWO GUNS TO ASH FORK...HIGHWAY 89 FROM PRESCOTT
TO ASH FORK...AND HIGHWAY 64 FROM WILLIAMS TO THE GRAND CANYON.
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

SNOWFALL REPORTS THROUGH NOON TODAY INCLUDE
PARKS 5 INCHES
BELLEMONT 3 INCHES
FLAGSTAFF 2-3 INCHES

A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY AS A POTENT WINTER
STORM TAKES AM AT THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME THE MOST VIGOROUS SNOWS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. AREAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5500 FEET WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCATIONS ABOVE 5500 HAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 8 TO 15 INCHES. LOCALIZED HIGH TERRAIN AREAS COULD
SEE NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 18 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAY AGAIN CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND BRISK WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

[azsnowman]

I've been TRYING to post ALL day BUT......I had to WORK It WAS my day off and then with the blizzard conditions we experienced, EVERY single officer from the force had to work due to the MULTIPULE accidents, I mean GEESH, you'd think after a YEAR without SNOW you'd STILL be able to DRIVE in it!

Dennis

[azsnowman]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Snow And Blowing Snow Advisory
Winter Storm Watch
Area Forecast For: The White Mountains
Issued: March 10, 2006 15:46:43 MST

Tonight: Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 3 to 6 inches. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the evening. Lows around 21 above 7000 feet...around 24 below 7000 feet. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Saturday: Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Snow accumulation of 6 to 9 inches. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Highs 26 to 36 above 7000 feet...34 to 40 below 7000 feet.

Saturday night: Snow in the evening...then snow showers after midnight. Snow accumulation of 7 to 10 inches. Total snow accumulation 15 to 20inches. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph. Lows around 22 above 7000 feet...around 25 below 7000 feet.

Sunday: Snow showers likely. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Highs 22 to 30 above 7000 feet...27 to 35 below 7000 feet. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow showers. West winds 10 to 20 mph and gusty in the evening becoming light. Lows 10 to 16.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Not as cold. Highs 29 to 39 above 7000 feet...38 to 44 below 7000 feet.

[PTrackerLA]

Geez talk about getting hammered with snow! I know it's too little, too late but I'd have to think that it's still extremely welcomed...if not only for finally seeing snow after a bone dry winter. Congrats!

[azsnowman]

Geez talk about getting hammered with snow! I know it's too little, too late but I'd have to think that it's still extremely welcomed...if not only for finally seeing snow after a bone dry winter. Congrats!

WELL.......this system MAY produce an ENTIRE winters worth of moisture with ONE HUGE DUMP!! Check THIS out

WINTER STORM WARNING

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
121 AM MST SAT MAR 11 2006

AZZ015>018-038-111630-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060312T1900Z/
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK..
HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP..
PAYSON...STRAWBERRY...YOUNG...SEDONA
121 AM MST SAT MAR 11 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM MST
SUNDAY..

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM MST SUNDAY.

A MASSIVE...COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD
ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
3500 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE DAYTIME. THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 4000 FEET.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT...THE HEAVIEST AND
MOST CONTINUOUS SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOW...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS STORM.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS STORM BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM:

4 TO 10 INCHES FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET 10 TO 20 INCHES FROM
5000 TO 6500 FEET 15 TO 25 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET

LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF FLAGSTAFF ON THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...COULD SEE AS MUCH AS
30 INCHES.

[azsnowman]

Ummmmmm..........


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

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

[azsnowman]

Winter Storm Warning
Area Forecast For: The White Mountains
Issued: March 11, 2006 04:00:46 MST

Today: Snow. Thunderstorms possible. Snow accumulation of 6 to 12 inches. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon. Highs 25 to 35 above 7000 feet...34 to 40 below 7000 feet.

Tonight: Snow. Snow accumulation of 7 to 12 inches. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph. Lows around 20 above 7000 feet...around 24 below 7000 feet.

Sunday: Snow likely in the morning...then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Total snow accumulation 16 to 30 inches. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Highs 21 to 29 above 7000 feet...26 to 34 below 7000 feet. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. West winds 10 to 20 mph and gusty in the evening becoming light. Lows 9 to 15.

[azsnowman]

Just noticed this in the warning!!


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF FLAGSTAFF ON THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...COULD SEE AS MUCH AS
30 INCHES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS. DRIVING WILL BE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS DURING THIS STORM. IF POSSIBLE...POSTPONE TRAVELING IN
THE WARNING AREA UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL..
TAKE EXTRA WINTER CLOTHING...FOOD...WATER...AND OTHER EMERGENCY
SUPPLIES. TELL FAMILY AND FRIENDS THE ROUTE YOU WILL TAKE...YOUR
PLANNED ARRIVAL TIME AT YOUR DESTINATION...AND THE TYPE AND COLOR
OF THE VEHICLE YOU WILL BE DRIVING JUST IN CASE YOU BECOME
STRANDED. FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS...CALL 1-888-411-
7623 OR 511 WITHIN ARIZONA.

[conestogo_flood]

This is great! Will this help with the lowering fire danger, end the drought, and make some grass come back?

[azsnowman]

This is great! Will this help with the lowering fire danger, end the drought, and make some grass come back?

End the drought? No......fire danger? Maybe, depends on how much we actually receive and how windy this spring is. The key to this whole system is of course the moisture content of the snow, right now, it's a DRY snow, it's like talcum powder.

We always have a period of high fire danger no matter how much moisture we receive......the spring winds here in Az. are pure H*LL, sustained winds of 25-30 MPH for the entire month of March and April dry things out so much. So as you can see......it's a tough situation, it's one of we'll have to "wait and see!"

Dennis

[conestogo_flood]

Well, thats too bad. At least you are getting some precipication, lets hope there is more to come!!

[Scorpion]

Wow! 3000 feet! Thats incredibly low. 3000 feet is still desert/chapparal.

[azskyman]

Hey there Dennis! Looks like you are in for at least a day of more snow...amounts may top 2 feet in some areas around you!

I'm out here in L.A. for the weekend, and we have had some showers too. Snow is bombarding the high peaks east of L.A. and around Palm Springs including Big Bear.

The moisture is welcome even though it looks like my neighborhood back in Scottsdale has had less than a quarter inch thus far. Maybe another quarter inch will fall during the day. Half-inch rains are real...especially if they don't come all at once.

Enjoy it when you can there snowman!

Steve

[BReb]

What's up with the Arizona Snowbowl ski resort? For weeks now they've been saying they need "2-3 feet" of snow to open. Well now that it looks like they may get it, they are raising the bar to open. Here's their latest statement:

SPECIAL NOTES
We still have not received enough snow to open for the season. We are expecting snow this weekend, but this storm will also bring strong winds. At least 3 - 4 feet of snow is needed. Think snow! We will evaluate conditions after the storm passes. If we have enough snow, we will then need to make sure we have sufficient staffing levels.

- end quote -

Sounds like they may want to use a cancelled season to help out that lawsuit they've got going on with the Native American tribes who don't want the resort to be able to make snow.

[JenyEliza]

Wow! 3000 feet! Thats incredibly low. 3000 feet is still desert/chapparal.

Look at this:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
421 AM PST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SNOW ON TRACK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT..

NVZ016-017-020-022-111800-
/O.CON.KVEF.SN.Y.0006.060311T1400Z-060312T0200Z/
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
LAS VEGAS VALLEY-SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MESQUITE...OVERTON...MOAPA...PAHRUMP..
INDIAN SPRINGS...DESERT ROCK...AMARGOSA VALLEY...LAS VEGAS..
NORTH LAS VEGAS...HENDERSON...BOULDER CITY...PRIMM...JEAN..
SEARCHLIGHT...CAL-NEV-ARI
421 AM PST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON ABOVE 2500 FEET..

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING AND BECOME WIDESPREAD BY LATE MORNING. SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN TO THE DESERT FLOORS AS LOW AS 1500 FEET...WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS DESERT AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE 3000 FEET.

A SNOW ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR INCONVENIENCES SUCH AS TRAVEL DELAYS. NO SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

[arizonasooner]

The streak is OVER!!! (143 days)

About 0.6" here at the house in Glendale so far with snow in north Scottsdale!

Finally!

And just as I type this, the sun peeks out.

Well, maybe that will introduce a little more instability for some afternoon thunderstorms today!

[Scorpion]

Wow, must be incredible for you guys to see rain. When I lived in Phoenix the streaks at most were around 2-3 months, and I would not remember what rain was like. 143 days is crazy! Also, must be something to be in those high deserts and see the snow flying.