What would have happened if Katrina hit 30 miles west?

[Audrey2Katrina]

Granted it's a hypothetical model; but you will note that by FAR the worst of the surge is aimed at the NORTHSHORE, and the WESTBANK, which is pretty much what I'd tried to state earlier.

A2K

[Derek Ortt]

yes, Slidell would have been hit even worse, if that is even possible

However, the GOM surge would have come up the MS River and the wind damage would have been horrific. After what I saw after Wilma when we had 70-75KT winds with gusts up to 100KT in Miami, I am not so sure that the winds wouldn't have just had their way with the city, if by some miracle, the MS levee would have held up

[Audrey2Katrina]

yes, Slidell would have been hit even worse, if that is even possible

However, the GOM surge would have come up the MS River and the wind damage would have been horrific. After what I saw after Wilma when we had 70-75KT winds with gusts up to 100KT in Miami, I am not so sure that the winds wouldn't have just had their way with the city, if by some miracle, the MS levee would have held up

Valid points; now I don't know enough about what the depth contours are around Miami; but is there a particular angle/range in which a worst-case for that area would come? ... I've seen a few computer models of what Miami might look like with a monster surge--ain't pretty... a lot of the city inundated; but no details on in which direction the storm came, or what size the surge might've been.

A2K

[Derek Ortt]

Little of Miami owuld be impacted by the surge, since we have a Cayman-Like profile of our offshore waters. Miami proper is on the bay and is subjetc to a 15-20 ft surge, but there is a ridge line near the bay and Miami Beach is not surge prone.

However, we have high rises; thus, we are very vulnerable to the wind (which, in a major cane is our #1 threat) and rainfall causes us standing water flooding

[ROCK]

Little of Miami owuld be impacted by the surge, since we have a Cayman-Like profile of our offshore waters. Miami proper is on the bay and is subjetc to a 15-20 ft surge, but there is a ridge line near the bay and Miami Beach is not surge prone.

However, we have high rises; thus, we are very vulnerable to the wind (which, in a major cane is our #1 threat) and rainfall causes us standing water flooding

Derek, what is the multiplier used for surge along this area? .5? I know LA, MS, AL had higher numbers whereas Galveston has I think 1.0.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Okay... thanks for that info... I'll try to find the site I got this image from; because I thought it a bit extreme as I, too, was of the opinion that most of Miami wasn't prone to a big surge... I've been to Florida dozens of times; but Miami proper only twice and don't know a whole lot about the geography thereabouts.

A2K

[Pearl River]

yes, Slidell would have been hit even worse, if that is even possible

I think what that show's, possibly north Slidell would be under 6-8 ft of water, the south end would only be a memory. Slidell is still a mess, but getting better every day. Still several homes and businesses haven't been touched yet. Some businesses are starting to re-open in south Slidell. North Slidell has been going pretty good since late November. Still can't find enough people to work. Both Walmarts here are 24 hour stores, but only stay open till 8:00pm.

[Audrey2Katrina]

yes, Slidell would have been hit even worse, if that is even possible

I think what that show's, possibly north Slidell would be under 6-8 ft of water, the south end would only be a memory. Slidell is still a mess, but getting better every day. Still several homes and businesses haven't been touched yet. Some businesses are starting to re-open in south Slidell. North Slidell has been going pretty good since late November. Still can't find enough people to work. Both Walmarts here are 24 hour stores, but only stay open till 8:00pm.

Too true... finding a place open after 8 or 9 PM isn't nearly as easy as it was pre-Katrina... "Now Hiring" signs literally ubiquitous. Whether some like it or not, the demographics of this area are in for a big change. Just how, and whether for ill or good is yet to be determined.

Here's hoping much for the good!

A2K

[Derek Ortt]

for Miami Beach and the ocean parts of the south and central Florida Peninsula, the surge multiplier is about what it is at Cayman or the Leewards

[Pearl River]

Derek, how do you figure the multiplier and is there a place one can get those numbers?

thanks