Great News!: February N Atlantic SST Anomalies Down A Lot

[Weatherfreak000]

Well you know the whole argument with upper level winds and blah blah blah.




Fact of the matter for me is, the temps are HIGHER in the places we DON'T need them to be in 06' and LOWER in the places we really couldn't give a damn about.



Can't throw statistics at that, Epsilon in living breathing proof that SST's are one of many factors in determining not only Tropical Cyclones but HURRICANES.

[tailgater]

2006
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 4atsst.png
2005
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 4atsst.png
Slightly cooler in general, Cape Verde season shouldn't kick off early. Let's hope this trend continue's.

[MiamiensisWx]

In addition, the eastern Pacific seems to have some warmer spots than 2005, along with the cooler Atlantic anomalies...

2005 (LAST YEAR)...



2006 (THIS YEAR)...



Very interesting... any thoughts on what may be causing the Atlantic cooling?

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, I truly think that the current cooling of Atlantic anomalies will likely not matter much, unfortunately. I'm sorry for crashing the party... it's just that it takes only one storm. Also, 2004 was nearly the same in terms of anomalies around this time of year... look how quickly the waters warmed up later on. That is why I don't think it will make much difference... the waters will quickly warm up soon. Sorry for sounding rude... I just don't see it affecting the season much, even if it lowers the activity slightly. Who agrees?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

One storm is still a heck of a lot better than 4 storms. Lower Sea Surface Temperatures help to prevent extreme rapid intensification and much stronger storms, as well as extreme numbers. So if the current trend continues (which we don't know how long it will or if it does start going up soon, how fast it will go up) we will still likely see an active season, yes, but it most likely won't have 18, 19 + named storms and definitely won't have 3 or 4 category 5 hurricanes.

[skysummit]

The Atlantic is a little cooler while the Gulf is a little warmer. Will we get storms that hold their own through the Atlantic but once the cross Florida and get into that rice cooker totally bomb out like they did last year?

[KWT]

Yeah can clearly see the difference betwee nthe two years, but as has been said, as quickly as the waters can cool, they can warm up again.

skysummit, I can well see that being the case, the gulf I reckon could be even more prime for monster hurricanes if the systems can get into that region, and as has been said, the upper condtions are verybit as important as those SSTA.

[MiamiensisWx]

Could cooler anomalies affect the ridge/troughs? If so, how?

[Scorpion]

The lower anomolies are in areas that don't really matter. Look at the GOM. Same anomolies as 2005, if not a little warmer. Western Caribbean. Warmer than 2005. Those are areas that DO matter, and thats where we see big storms blow up. Just because SST's are lower in the mid-Atlantic doesn't mean much. It does mean, however, that hurricanes won't peak out there, like Isabel, instead, they would peak out closer to shore, which is bad news.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Well abnormally warmer waters in the tropical regions tend to help vast areas of lower pressures to form (the Caribbean Basin is a good example for 2005) that help storms to get to those exceptionally low pressures through increased heat rising from the ocean's surface. So without that, we will see a return to normal pressures.....though, through the map posted by someone on the first place, if that were to remain through hurricane season, you would probably see something like that in the Gulf of Mexico.

In terms of upper level troughs and ridges, that is not something that is typically affected by surface things. However, a surface Bermuda High's location in the subtropics is based on many many variables, with SSTs causing very little. If anything, cooler SSTs off the east coast *may* push it eastward, but again, the location is based on MANY factors, not just Sea Surface Temperatures.

[Weatherfreak000]

One storm is still a heck of a lot better than 4 storms. Lower Sea Surface Temperatures help to prevent extreme rapid intensification and much stronger storms, as well as extreme numbers. So if the current trend continues (which we don't know how long it will or if it does start going up soon, how fast it will go up) we will still likely see an active season, yes, but it most likely won't have 18, 19 + named storms and definitely won't have 3 or 4 category 5 hurricanes.

I'm just gonna leave this at i'm holding you to take quote. I sure remember very well last year wasn't supposed to be as bad as 04' for various little reasons and of course we all saw what happened there.

[Weatherfreak000]

The lower anomolies are in areas that don't really matter. Look at the GOM. Same anomolies as 2005, if not a little warmer. Western Caribbean. Warmer than 2005. Those are areas that DO matter, and thats where we see big storms blow up. Just because SST's are lower in the mid-Atlantic doesn't mean much. It does mean, however, that hurricanes won't peak out there, like Isabel, instead, they would peak out closer to shore, which is bad news.

Point well made Scorpion, I completely agree.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I would say if March is above normal the temps will rebound. They are only down because it was so cold the last few weeks.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Weatherfreak, March of last year was the first record SST Anomaly at +1.18 C. Most people thought the 2005 season wasn't going to be as active right after 2004 for many reasons...such as statistical probabilities as well as the chance that an El Nino may have been forming...with these, it was logical to say that 2005 probably wasn't going to be active during that December. However, as time progressed...such as by April, we began to notice that no El Nino was going to form and SST Anomalies skyrocketed to record numbers. After seeing this happen, people began to forecast a much more active season than they had predicted back in December.

Just a warning...don't get too tied up in hoping that we see more active seasons that you fail to see the facts presented or you look at the wrong thing. Saying "Oh well, people thought that 2005 wasn't going to be as active as 2004 in December, so therefore they are probably wrong now" is just not good logic considering we are in March and the trends are now moving and we are getting a clearer picture of what 2006 may bring us.

[Weatherfreak000]

Weatherfreak, March of last year was the first record SST Anomaly at +1.18 C. Most people thought the 2005 season wasn't going to be as active right after 2004 for many reasons...such as statistical probabilities as well as the chance that an El Nino may have been forming...with these, it was logical to say that 2005 probably wasn't going to be active during that December. However, as time progressed...such as by April, we began to notice that no El Nino was going to form and SST Anomalies skyrocketed to record numbers. After seeing this happen, people began to forecast a much more active season than they had predicted back in December.

Just a warning...don't get too tied up in hoping that we see more active seasons that you fail to see the facts presented or you look at the wrong thing. Saying "Oh well, people thought that 2005 wasn't going to be as active as 2004 in December, so therefore they are probably wrong now" is just not good logic considering we are in March and the trends are now moving and we are getting a clearer picture of what 2006 may bring us.

With all due respect, you just told me last year in March the forecast for how the season was gonna go was INACCURATE at best. And you mention how April came and the picture changed when the SST's skyrocketed.


I'm not gonna get into a debate, just think about it a bit especially the part where you say April shows a better picture.


I'm not -removed- another 05' year but we sure don't need even a little complacency going on IMO, especially after we're trying to predict conditions still a long way away.


My thoughts are, let's sit here be alert and be ready.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

you just told me last year in March the forecast for how the season was gonna go was INACCURATE at best.

I did not say March, I said December. SSTs skyrocketed after that point, reaching a first peak in March and a second peak in June.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the Gulf and NW Caribbean are as warm or warmer than last year. To me, that is a cause of concern. With such warm waters in those areas...we could see another active year for the Gulf. All it takes is ONE storm to change history. Another major into N.O. or a major into Houston or Tampa could spell disaster for sure.

[boca]

It doesn't matter if its 10 storms or 1. The one that's heading towards your location matters. 9 of them can be fishes. Ex 1992 Andrew.

[MiamiensisWx]

Agreed, boca!

[Weatherfreak000]

The SST's are so ridiculously similar I can't believe this is even a discussion. I wish someone could explain to me why they are so different.



Like it was said, yeah ok there is some cooling out in the Atlantic but closer to home in the Carribean and GOM the waters are the same if not warmer and anyone can agree that's far far worse.


Infact, i'd go as far as if to say it's practically a moot point. I don't see the good news the difference is hardly different and the SST's didn't go down much period.


That's pretty much the bottom line.